service / likes
Vanguard
“Ben and David love their index funds. You know, we love Vanguard here. If you had bought the S&P 500 with that same $1,000, instead of $17 million today, you would have $170,000.”
Public evidence record
Host · Acquired
Books, apps, and tools
service / likes
“Ben and David love their index funds. You know, we love Vanguard here. If you had bought the S&P 500 with that same $1,000, instead of $17 million today, you would have $170,000.”
other / recommends
“There's a great one on the Florida Project, so I highly recommend Defunctland.”
other / recommends
“I highly recommend the channel, Animagraffs.”
hardware / likes
“The sightlines, man. The, the—I, I like going to Disneyland just to walk around.”
other / recommends
“I highly recommend Tifosi. They're also pretty cheap. I bought three pairs. They're goofy in different colors and they're fun.”
book / uses
“One great book I read for research was Last Man Standing to prep for the Jamie Dimon interview.”
other / uses
“I listened to an episode of Invest Like the Best about a year ago, which was a really, really long interview with Graham Duncan.”
app / uses
“I find switching costs to be relatively low. I use Gemini for some stuff, then it’s really easy to switch away.”
other / uses
“I watched the Google IO keynote with Glass and I watched a bunch of Glass content.”
paper / uses
“In fact, in particular, for each of these episodes now, I read the Worldly Partners research on the company we’re covering from front of the show, Arvind.”
app / uses
“Think about how I watch Netflix. I will watch Netflix tonight after we record on my Apple TV upstairs.”
other / recommends
“I highly recommend the Visa one as discussed earlier in the Network of Networks idea, if you haven't heard that”
Claim ledger
500 transcript-backed records
01 / preference
“Ben and David love their index funds. You know, we love Vanguard here. If you had bought the S&P 500 with that same $1,000, instead of $17 million today, you would have $170,000.”
02 / evaluation
“Yes, home improvement is just a massive category, way, way bigger than I realized.”
03 / commitment
“Today we will tell the story of how it happened. It is an unlikely story of two guys who got unceremoniously fired from their old jobs with little savings and no retirement funds, who then had a revolutionary idea to build a home improvement store in giant warehouses, five times more square footage than any other hardware store at the time, which seemed risky at best, unthinkable maybe.”
04 / uncertainty
“The cable side is declining, but the thesis is maybe they can, using the ESPN streaming service, I don't know that Disney would acknowledge that as a declining asset.”
05 / uncertainty
“Sure, people are churning off cable, but I don't know, that's manageable as long as your costs stay fixed.”
06 / belief
“' Like, Disney Animation is so important to where we all came from in the world, and they fly down and they meet with people and they see, 'Oh, there's actually great talent here, they're just not being led well, and we think we can apply our process and institute a brain trust and change the physical construction of the building and bring in the Pixar way and make this great again.”
07 / belief
“From the outside, we think about the Walt Disney Company as these movies and box office, and that is not the business.”
08 / evaluation
“The Lucasfilm guys are wondering what's going on, and it turns out this is right in the middle of when Steve is getting fired from Apple and ousted from his own company.”
09 / belief
“Avengers: Endgame, which was the 2nd highest grossing film of all time, 2nd only to Avatar, I think.”
10 / uncertainty
“I mean, you can criticize them all you want today for raising prices, but they had, I don't know, 5 to 10x of you can raise the price and it wouldn't impact demand for a second back then.”
11 / belief
“I think there was some dilution, so it wasn't quite a 25x, closer to a 20x of the stock.”
12 / uncertainty
“I haven't been in, I don't know, 15 years or something, but I have a visceral memory of the parade of animals walking down the aisle and just how uniquely they did the costume designs with the faces of the animals that sort of hover above their heads.”
13 / belief
“I remember watching the Obi-Wan TV show on Disney+ and being like, oh man, that kind of shatters how I think about Obi-Wan.”
14 / commitment
“David and I are going to have a live conversation going behind the scenes of Acquired.”
15 / belief
“I think the most interesting part of this is they then take the storyboards and put them together in a story reel where they're able to watch it like a movie, even though they're still frames, and they either narrate over it or they do temp dialogue on top.”
16 / uncertainty
“Could you run a high-quality skinny service that reaches, I don't know, 30 to 50 million people who really just want the straight drip of Disney, but also make hundreds of millions of dollars licensing that content elsewhere, but just kind of spreading it around to make sure that when you have a big thing that you think is the equivalent of a box office hit, you do release it on Netflix to their 350-ish million people.”
17 / observation
“The only way to answer this question is to answer it with a real thing they could have done differently, because do nothing was not actually an answer.”
18 / belief
“Yep. And then their first— when they spun out of baseball, they, I think, stood up the streaming backend for the then fledgling HBO Now.”
19 / commitment
“There's even a quote in Bob Iger's book, which we haven't talked about Bob yet, but we will.”
20 / belief
“The Disney brand has something to lose. And so if you have a bunch of bombs in a row, I think less of the Disney brand, which again takes away your compounding competitive advantage.”
21 / observation
“I mean, the only way this story could get any more awesome is if they somehow beat Disney at their own game, got bought by Disney, breathed new life into the core of the company, and Steve Jobs became the largest shareholder of Disney itself.”
22 / uncertainty
“The B-team is clearly working on the thing that's going to be lower budget, lower distribution, direct-to-video. We don't know how to do it.”
23 / observation
“Pixar's highest grossing film yet, and Disney learns all the way to the bank that sequels can be real profitable.”
24 / preference
“To Bill Block, who formerly led Miramax, to Ben Thompson for his exceptional analysis of Disney over the last decade that inspired a lot of my thinking. I think I read every Strategery piece on the company to prepare for this.”
25 / evaluation
“Michael is supposed to get the job that Barry had as chairman of the movie studio over at Paramount, and he doesn't get that job largely because of internal politics and who's making how much money, those sort of games.”
26 / prediction
“Coco and Encanto are probably the best shots at it, maybe Elemental. But it's interesting because those, those did not have big box offices.”
27 / prediction
“They took those kind of rebuilding years, 5, 6 years in the middle, had a pandemic in the middle of it that shut down all their parks. But I think in 2026, it's looking like they'll set a brand new net income record ever based on the way it's trending.”
28 / evaluation
“There are a few things left, but Iger kind of saw this before anyone else, went in with a bigger checkbook than I think a lot of people would have been willing to go in with, diluted Disney to do it.”
29 / evaluation
“It's going away. They had a very profitable box office, especially in the golden era where you could make and market a film like Avengers, the original one, for, I don't know, $200, $300 million and then gross $1.”
30 / recommendation
“One, how a mechanical watch works, and two, how a Formula 1 car works. I highly recommend the channel, Animagraffs.”
31 / recommendation
“The sightlines, man. The, the—I, I like going to Disneyland just to walk around.”
32 / recommendation
“Tons of great Disney ones, Disney parks that were never built. There's a great one on the Florida Project, so I highly recommend Defunctland.”
33 / belief
“I think Walt himself has a famous quip on this, which is tomorrow comes a lot faster into today than we can kinda keep up with.”
34 / belief
“Yep, I think that's right. All right, so that's the animation process. That is why this is such a giant, difficult undertaking to create something like Snow White.”
35 / uncertainty
“I turned over every stone I possibly could on this company and we spent, I don't know, the better part of the year so far researching this and I found zero evidence of that.”
36 / belief
“There's all this video of it, of him saying, "I believe so-and-so is a communist.”
37 / belief
“Come in, raid the company, break it up for parts. But, David, I think you're getting ahead of yourself.”
38 / uncertainty
“I don't know, actually, that's almost like a capitalism moat to go pursue Snow White because there was no one else who really could have done it.”
39 / uncertainty
“In the long run, it's a pretty amazing strategy since they'd been paying I don't know, what is it, about a third of the total rentals to another distributor.”
40 / observation
“You've got parks to do—it's almost like the extreme bottom of funnel, the way to experience the most Disney thing you possibly could experience every once in a while, but a huge monetization event.”
41 / commitment
“Essentially, it was Roy's way of saying, okay, the company doesn't want to be too tied up in this project if it fails, but we will provide you a way to get more cash flows from the company so you can figure out how to do more of the funding of this thing yourself.”
42 / observation
“There's a team of operators to make it work. You had to climb a ladder to get all the way to the top.”
43 / evaluation
“Halfway through construction, they discover that Rivers of America almost doesn't work at all.”
44 / belief
“The second reason that I suspect you're hinting at, David, is it is real close to Lockheed.”
45 / belief
“To this day, I think the most impressive thing about Disneyland is the sightlines.”
46 / belief
“I mean, yeah, you were there for a production, but I think the point you're trying to make is there were also these cartoons with gags.”
47 / belief
“I think, I think he's an engineer. I think he's, he loves picking things apart and learning the way they work.”
48 / commitment
“I will say I don't have the faith after watching a lot of videos and documentaries and reading about the Florida Project, it just doesn't make sense to me.”
49 / commitment
“That's where we'll send our big takeaways from each episode, past episode corrections, exclusive behind-the-scenes photos that we found in our research, and it's where you can vote on future episode topics. Plus, we will give away a little hint each time about the next episode topic.”
50 / recommendation
“I highly recommend the channel, Animagraffs.”
51 / recommendation
“There's a great one on the Florida Project, so I highly recommend Defunctland.”
52 / belief
“I was telling my wife, you know, I think I'll be able to do bedtime tonight, maybe, maybe even dinner.”
53 / belief
“I think like if you're Vanguard, you're delighted to get the business, to have people buying Vanguard funds on Fidelity.”
54 / evaluation
“Listeners, for anyone who isn't tuned into our Visa episode, it took a similarly—I'm not sure if "selfless" is the right word—but a person who was not motivated by getting to own the fruits of their labor, where Dee just decided this is the best structure if all these banks link arms and collectively create this thing that if memory serves, it might have even been a nonprofit or some sort of strange structure.”
55 / belief
“Man, The Wall Street Journal party continues to Justin Baer there, who has a book coming out soon called House of Fidelity, which I think is actually due out this week.”
56 / belief
“Some people know that Vanguard is owned by its fund investors, but I think few people realize that is why it is low cost.”
57 / uncertainty
“Most of the time it's suggestions of how we should vote the shares, but I get where you're going that the fund manager of, let's say, one of these Vanguard or BlackRock grows to be, I don't know, 60% ownership of every company in America.”
58 / belief
“Like I'm not concerned in any way about this. I think even if you had 95% passive, the prices are set by the marginal trader.”
59 / observation
“Did he leave it on the table? I mean, the only way that Vanguard would exist is by not taking profits.”
60 / belief
“I think Costco thus far has been the most correct analogy that this is Costco on steroids, but it's also something else that was also an Acquired episode.”
61 / belief
“I think structurally, they sort of need to raise them when there are contractions in the market.”
62 / belief
“I don't think I realized that it was also happening in the kind of 1965 to 1971 era.”
63 / belief
“I think the most interesting reason is that it was the thing where it was clear that the founder really should hand over the reins.”
64 / commitment
“Morgan rep and tell them that Ben and David sent you. And if you want to join us for some live interviews, we will be on the main stage with J.”
65 / evaluation
“" Then he went and talked to a second doctor, and that doctor said, "Why don't you get a place out in Cape Cod and stop working and enjoy the last few years you have left? Don't work anymore.”
66 / belief
“I think the most interesting thing about 2008 is the fact that the index fund conceptually was stress tested.”
67 / belief
“I am a Vanguard customer and I think 100% of the way that I am a customer is through their ETFs, not through their mutual fund products.”
68 / evaluation
“Now, up until this point in time in the history of American financial organizations, that's a footnote, right? That doesn't matter.”
69 / belief
“You know, your life is going to be in great shape if you just compound that for a long time. And so I think for a lot of people it was, "I'm fed up with clever, give me straightforward.”
70 / prediction
“I will say this 20% is a little misleadingly low because thanks to direct indexing and people constructing their own portfolios that look like indexes but aren't actually in index funds, the passive ownership in companies could be more like 30 to 40%.”
71 / evaluation
“" If you're interested in the market, it has historically performed well because it essentially captures the productivity growth and innovation of the world's most successful economy.”
72 / preference
“Like normally in a company, when I buy a share of Apple, it's because I think Apple is gonna compound their profits, their cash flows in the future at a higher rate than anything else that I could invest in.”
73 / prediction
“The answer I suspect Vanguard leadership would give you is you do actually need to grow to stay competitive because you need to keep investing in the platform and the current cash flows off our small management fees are not enough to make all the investments that we wanna make.”
74 / prediction
“You can see why they had the fear, which is if you provide this existence proof that you can run this business at cost and you don't need to pay huge sums of money to the people managing this, then our customers will demand the same from us, which is sort of right because you can buy an S&P 500 index fund from basically anyone today at basically no cost.”
75 / evaluation
“The industry ignored it for decades because conventional wisdom sort of "felt", felt in quotes, correct.”
76 / evaluation
“Now, all of that wasn't because of the assets decreasing in value. A lot of that was redemptions where investors are taking their money and going elsewhere.”
77 / observation
“Now, Porsche, on the other hand, China was 33% of their deliveries a few years ago. Which has collapsed all the way to 15% and continues to fall.”
78 / commitment
“I'm not sure I totally agree with the distinction, but a thing that I will say is you go to Paris to absorb the history and look at the fine museums, and you go to Italy to feel something.”
79 / belief
“In fact, I think most people who own Ferraris own other cars and want to keep adding other cars.”
80 / belief
“Lamborghini actually canceled theirs and has switched it to a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle instead. And I think the point I keep kicking around is, much like the quartz crisis in the world of watches, speed is no longer relevant.”
81 / belief
“I mean, the cost, the investment that I think most people don't realize to staff the full infrastructure is crazy.”
82 / commitment
“S. and around the world, as we will soon get to from those early days. And behind any company operating at that scale, there is a massive engine orchestrating money movement behind the scenes.”
83 / belief
“I think that is largely correct. It is interesting for all the people who complain, oh, you know, that model was crappy or this strategy was crap.”
84 / belief
“I mean, the engineering innovations have always appealed to a set of people, but this is a whole different universe of engineering. Here's one that I think is really cool.”
85 / belief
“The big difference here being that Ferrari is much sort of flashier than Patek is as a brand, and they also have the Tifosi, which adds this whole different element to it. So to directly answer your question, I think branding shows up more in luxury watches than it does in luxury cars for the— almost like the lack of experienceable intrinsic product characteristics, that it's just hard to experience the product in a Porsche, but it's easy to experience the product differences in a car.”
86 / uncertainty
“I don't know. Everyone involved in these stories is long dead. It could be some of column A and some of column B.”
87 / observation
“Dealers do, however, play a huge role in the secondary market, and Ferrari knows it's in their interest to have a thriving secondary market since, given how few new cars there are, the entry-level Ferrari is really a used Ferrari. And so it's the way to sort of cultivate the next generation of owners.”
88 / commitment
“In May of 1963, he goes to his lieutenants and he says, we will go to Le Mans and beat his ass.”
89 / belief
“A former, I believe, physicist. Or at least physics undergrad who ended up going into semiconductors.”
90 / evaluation
“Which means, David, that Ferrari has the highest ratio of people who know about their products to people who actually own their products of any company in human history.”
91 / commitment
“I bought the luggage first, long before they sent it. And they sent it because I got a lot more luggage because we used it as a carve-out, right?”
92 / preference
“Sometimes I get tricked by Instagram, as my wife says, where I'm scrolling through and then I find like the perfect ad hitting me at the perfect moment for some product I didn't even know I needed. This pair of scissors, the ad is great because it says, how come your scissors are like some flimsy sheet metal?”
93 / prediction
“I would bet they have the lowest hours of use per car of any manufacturer in the world who produces at least, I don't know, draw a hard cutoff, 5,000 cars a year.”
94 / prediction
“Enzo really wanted to do this deal, and I think he determined at this point in history— I've not seen this written anywhere, but I'm reading into this, you know, even Ford thought it was worth somewhere between $10 and $18 million earlier in the decade.”
95 / prediction
“Because the supercar that we had talked about, the F40, the F50, the Enzo, the LaFerrari, and now the F80, these are not being made all the time.”
96 / preference
“I think my favorite thing about Ferrari is the manufacturing process, and it's both because of how cool it is from a nerdy perspective, but also the business model that enables for them.”
97 / prediction
“I believe 35% of people who are buying the lifestyle merchandise they're creating are women.”
98 / commitment
“If you want to know, every time an episode drops, check out our email list. It is the only place where we will share a hint of what our next episode will be, and we’ll share corrections, updates, and little tidbits that we learned from previous episodes.”
99 / recommendation
“Yeah, you can go spend a lot of money and buy a 911, but you have the functioning alibi of, well, I needed a car and I wanted a car. I like driving.”
100 / evaluation
“We’ve thrown a lot of missives here and there, but we should just say like this is an unbelievable fantastic company that makes a remarkable product, and the strategy and execution by which they’ve executed that is best in the world ever.”
101 / commitment
“When you’re thinking about what enables Apple’s profits versus Rolex’s profits, if I go buy a Rolex, I will pay about 10 times more than I paid for my Apple Watch.”
102 / belief
“I think the interesting thing is to stack them against who is their closest competitor.”
103 / belief
“You go to New York City and hope to get to Canal Street to try to buy some fake Rolexes on your trip to New York. I think that’s totally right.”
104 / belief
“I think the industry went that way, and they happened to be the most prestigious high-volume player in it.”
105 / belief
“I think the issue, if I were to buy any shares of Rolex, would be that I could never do anything with them because I could never sell the shares.”
106 / belief
“Even in handbags where Louis Vuitton is so… They print money, somewhere around 20%. I think Rolex defines the category of watches.”
107 / commitment
“A lot of words in there that we will get to, but at the moment where we are is chronometer, officially certified.”
108 / belief
“I think that’s right, and it intentionally meant nothing. It was easy to pronounce, it was easy to say.”
109 / belief
“I think the important thing is they maintained the option to go play the other strategy that Omega was playing if they really needed to, but they just hoped it wouldn’t come to that.”
110 / observation
“There was a half step along the way to a technology that turned out to be a detour that actually wasn’t the future.”
111 / commitment
“If you like this episode, go check out LVMH, Hermès, or Porsche by searching in any podcast player. Listen to ACQ2 because we won’t have another episode for another month.”
112 / belief
“Here it is. He’s wearing (I think) a Rolex GMT and a Submariner on the same wrist.”
113 / belief
“I think a lot of the time they just had resources and structure that let them find these opportunities to do a rational, logical, low risk thing, and continue to pull away from competitors.”
114 / belief
“Most of them I think are at 10% extra margin of safety, but I think the dive watches are an extra 25%.”
115 / belief
“There are maybe two with Porsche and Hermès, but I think you’re right that’s Hermès.”
116 / belief
“I think he even wore two. There are like some photos of him where he is wearing two Rolexes.”
117 / belief
“I think your points are valid about they are increasingly wanting that customer touchpoint, especially as it comes to things like waitlists.”
118 / uncertainty
“Even in, I don’t know, 2010 or something, you could walk into a jeweler who’s an authorized Rolex dealer and you could just buy something out of the case, which you cannot do today.”
119 / belief
“Diving down to great depths, taming oilwell wildfires. I think there’s even one where they’re walking in a volcano.”
120 / belief
“The movements are incredibly high quality, and I think consumers actually might be getting a pretty good deal on Tudor watches.”
121 / belief
“I think about it as this beautiful blend of French beauty and appreciation for aesthetic and Swiss precision.”
122 / observation
“The first quartz watch that hit the market in 1969 from Seiko was dependent on the invention and miniaturization of the transistor and integrated circuit before it could actually happen. That’s why we’re stuck waiting from the 1920s all the way to 1969 before it can be used in a watch.”
123 / evaluation
“In part, the lesson is it is incorrect to describe markets by the products in them.”
124 / evaluation
“James Cameron, on a man submersible, takes the Sea-Dweller Deepsea Challenge—it actually is (I think) all of those brands; they include the sub-brand with the parent brand in this thing—down to the Marianas Trench to the deepest part of the ocean.”
125 / prediction
“I will say, very interestingly, in 1932, Omega released a waterproof watch, which is, I don’t know, half a decade after Rolex.”
126 / evaluation
“Unlike everything else that is incredibly tight inside a watch, this component, the balance almost floats and it moves with really low friction. It’s weird because it’s the opposite of everything else that’s in the whole watch.”
127 / uncertainty
“This is where I think Rolex may have bought the shares back from Aegler. But again, we don’t know and we’ll never know because no one at Rolex will ever talk about that.”
128 / evaluation
“Fascinatingly, and I’m not sure if this is counterintuitive or not, I don’t remember 2014 thinking about the watch industry because I didn’t, but it was the best thing to ever happen to Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek, et cetera.”
129 / evaluation
“In some ways, we have to tell a whole industry history here. But in other ways, these are all the same company, because they're all stacked learnings from Sol Price and his various brain children over the years to create the Costco that it is today.”
130 / commitment
“(1) We will be including little hints at what the next episode will be to the email list now.”
131 / belief
“David, the other crazy thing is, I think Robert may have signed every copy of this book because he signed yours, and he signed the one that I got.”
132 / commitment
“One of the things we're going to talk about here in bear and bull, and I think we should transition, is what Costco is doing that is Costco-flavored ecommerce instead of Amazon-flavored ecommerce, but I will save that for my bookcase.”
133 / commitment
“I will say, too, that there's this famous quote about Amazon being a charity that's run for the benefit of customers.”
134 / belief
“In fact, it's right around, and I suspect this is why management price is that way, it's right around the average household spend at Costco.”
135 / belief
“I think what was going on here is Hugo Mann just realized that FedMart was sitting on a goldmine of real estate and just wanted the real estate portfolio.”
136 / commitment
“I really appreciate it. We will link to the Fast Company peace in the show notes, too.”
137 / belief
“Let's analyze some of the second order effects of membership, which I think are potentially even more interesting than the obvious ones.”
138 / evaluation
“There was a Deutsche Bank analyst that said, "It is better to be an employee or a customer than a shareholder," which Costco management would say, yeah, that's literally like we've printed it.”
139 / belief
“Their machine really works. I think that's the point. They've earned the right acting this nobly partially got them to where they are, but where they are earns them the right to continue to be noble.”
140 / commitment
“Today, we will walk through the very specific path of decisions and trade-offs that Costco has chosen to accomplish just this.”
141 / belief
“I think the dynamics are actually the opposite way with Costco, where Costco gets to hold an auction and say, we have an enormous amount of payment volume with enormously good customers with good credit.”
142 / commitment
“We are going to be including little tidbits after we release episodes, including listener corrections and little fun stories that we didn't have in time for recording.”
143 / belief
“I think that's exactly right. You can see it in the numbers. They do very well in every economic environment.”
144 / belief
“Actually, I think you need to go in and have your picture taken. I was on a personal one before.”
145 / commitment
“Of course, Jim, Sinegal looks at him and goes, if you raise the price of the hot dog and drink combo, I will effing kill you.”
146 / belief
“I actually don't know why, but I suspect it's because prices are artificially high in the entire glasses supply chain.”
147 / uncertainty
“Actually, they condemned the pier and took it down because it was really last year that it was still… I don't know.”
148 / belief
“I actually did not know Bernie Marcus's name or that he was the founder of Home Depot. I think now we have to.”
149 / belief
“I think, David, you mentioned before, about 3000 at Price Club is what they had available for sale.”
150 / belief
“There are some concepts that I think we've talked about at a high level, but we haven't really drilled into why they work so well.”
151 / evaluation
“The split is just significant enough for the retail business where you're like, okay, yeah, we should care about growing sales in the retail business. But if it wasn't 70/30, if it was 90/10, or 95/5, you'd be like, well, I'm actually not sure why we care about making a single nother sale of toilet paper, because unless it is increasing the likelihood someone retains, I don't care about it.”
152 / evaluation
“There are so many fun, little paradoxical things about this company. They sell goods at the lowest possible price, but that means that they have a wealthy customer base.”
153 / preference
“Very often, I will buy something that's a little bit more expensive on Amazon because I'm like, well, it's going to be easy to return.”
154 / evaluation
“It is such a good value that 55% of US members now do it. But much like everything else we've talked about with Costco, it is also amazing for Costco, because they get your money at the beginning of the year further advantaging their cash flow position.”
155 / prediction
“To be honest, this scale economies that they then share with customers, I don't know how anyone could ever catch them in this moat that they've built from that.”
156 / evaluation
“Every single time Costco does something amazing, they needed to because of the trade-offs that they chose.”
157 / evaluation
“Costco decides, we will only markup anything a maximum of 14%. They actually do mark other things up less than that because things like electronics, they actually can only mark up 6%, 7%, 8%.”
158 / recommendation
“I highly recommend Tifosi. They're also pretty cheap. I bought three pairs. They're goofy in different colors and they're fun.”
159 / evaluation
“It eventually became the sport of rich guys who want to own teams to gallivant around Europe, losing colossal sums of money along the way. And in fact, David, since the sport began, over 100 separate teams have entered and exited the competition, mostly because they went bankrupt.”
160 / belief
“I think, is the easy answer. David: And then I think inventory, you're right. There's sort of a structural thing.”
161 / uncertainty
“I don't know, it'd be hard, though. Their faces are so squeezed in those helmets.”
162 / uncertainty
“Assuming there's, I don't know, 15 races or something, that would be 135 distinct agreements between teams and local races.”
163 / uncertainty
“If you do the quick math on that $630 million and call it, I don't know, $30 a ticket, you come to the number of 21 million tickets sold at the box office.”
164 / belief
“Yep, and just so people can really picture it, I think you kind of know what an F1 car looks like now.”
165 / belief
“In my opinion, you get a positive feedback loop and a negative feedback loop at the top and the bottom.”
166 / belief
“I think in sport, yes, you always want the most talented and highest performing team to be able to win.”
167 / belief
“I think you're right that the initial thing was, oh, yeah, people like racing, and this is visually compelling.”
168 / uncertainty
“I don't know if you knew this, David. I talked to Zach Brown, the CEO of McLaren Racing to prep for this episode.”
169 / observation
“There was a six wheeled car at one point, because it wasn't in the rules that you only had to have four wheels. And over time, as they start adding more and more guidelines for safety and for all these other reasons, the way to succeed in Formula 1 shifted from making a more powerful engine or figuring out the very best aero to figuring out how to exploit the rules.”
170 / belief
“I mean, the biggest thing I think we've seen is Ferrari, who is a front of grid team, is doing something very clever to create downforce with their exhaust.”
171 / commitment
“Look, that business reality. Give me a few months, and I will find a buyer for the team.”
172 / observation
“Even before realizing, hey, media rights are going to be super valuable, the thing that he clearly sees is centralizing these negotiations is going to be the way to extract the most value.”
173 / observation
“In general, what diffusers do is they direct the airflow that is coming out from the bottom of the car up and sort of out of the way to ideally shape the aerodynamics as the air escapes the back of the car.”
174 / belief
“I think there's more you could do of bringing the people from "Drive to Survive" into the race that they're the same people, so you should be able to do it.”
175 / belief
“I think the average tenure over the entire existence of Formula 1 is about six years for a given team.”
176 / belief
“All right, so they go to Netflix, these clever F1 guys. And they say, hey, I think you should do a series.”
177 / preference
“The cars have three to 600 sensors on them. And shockingly to me as an American, David, I don't know if you knew this before we started researching, it's actually the world's most popular annual sporting series with over 827 million viewers.”
178 / evaluation
“There's a giant compromise here, but it has saved at least three people's lives since then because it can protect a driver even when a car is upside down and skidding.”
179 / prediction
“Yes, but for fans of ground effects, they would make their way back for the 2022 to 2025 regulations, which that's what we saw in Vegas, David. It was crazy cool to watch because I think 70% of the downforce from those cars is created by the ground effects, not from the pushing down of the spoiler, but the sucking of the car onto the track.”
180 / belief
“Are we some kind of entertainment franchise that has lost its way? I think that's the interesting dichotomy between owners these days.”
181 / belief
“Yep, but we're a short number of years away from, I think, seeing a giant breakout star who started in flag football because it was a part of their school or YMCA program from another country.”
182 / belief
“Yep, speaking of hard to control the narrative, let's talk about blackballing Colin Kaepernick. I think an interesting place to start is the job of the commissioner.”
183 / belief
“The press had been looking for something to call it. And Lamar Hunt, I think, had been the one who observed his kid playing with a WAMO Super Bowl.”
184 / belief
“The Supreme Court decision came down, I believe made it a state's rights issue of what type of gambling, sports gambling to allow.”
185 / belief
“I think that revenue stream was almost as large as the advertising revenue stream.”
186 / commitment
“Go tell that high school recruit that if that recruit plays for you, then we will do a private side deal with them to pay them money while they come and play for your team.”
187 / uncertainty
“One other point that I did miss while we're in TV broadcast land on the episode. David, I don't know if you knew this.”
188 / belief
“I think the biggest players getting paid in the NCAA right now with the sort of weird way that the booster stuff works is like $2 million.”
189 / belief
“I think when we recorded, there was just games in London and Germany, or maybe we were one year off from that, but there are now seven international games across five countries.”
190 / belief
“A thing in playbook here that I think is interesting to talk about is the relationship that the NFL has with its players as a supplier and with the networks as a customer.”
191 / belief
“Now listeners, just like our NBA episode a couple of years ago, this is an episode on the business of football. It's not specifically about things I learned reviewing game film or the merits of the eye formation.”
192 / belief
“I think generalizing from that, I agree with even more that this for the greater good mindset was easier to do when everyone's individual franchise was smaller.”
193 / belief
“One, NFL teams are now just always reliably profitable businesses. That's not true in most sports and it wasn't true in the NFL's history, but if you own an NFL team, you are going to get, I believe get a dividend check every year since they're cash generative.”
194 / observation
“The only way anybody's going to write about us and give us space on the sports page is if we make their job easy and put the stats right in their hands every day.”
195 / evaluation
“The interesting thing too is that the leagues aren't respecting each other's drafts. It doesn't matter if you draft someone in your league, I'm signing him to a contract in mind and that contract is valid in the United States.”
196 / uncertainty
“"Walking up the stairs of the rotunda when the vote looked like a sure thing, Rozelle was ever his usual humble self. Congressman Boggs, I don't know how I can ever thank you enough for this.”
197 / belief
“Three years ago, in January of 2023, we released an episode on the National Football League, which David, I think, is absolutely an essential part of Acquired canon.”
198 / belief
“There's now, I think when we did the episode, we said something about $18 billion a year, the league now does over $23 billion per year] across all teams that's on track to surpass $25 billion.”
199 / belief
“I think the NFL wields a lot of influence and saying, oh, you may not be a part of the networks that get our broadcast in the next generation.”
200 / belief
“I think if you look at the $18 billion a year of revenue the NFL, if you include the players, captures as much value as it possibly can.”
201 / belief
“I think so, that's my best guess. It's super different city to city. This is probably the most variable, 10% comes from sponsorship and advertising.”
202 / uncertainty
“Let's assume it's 10%. I don't know if that's conservative or not, but it's less than 20%.”
203 / prediction
“I think the takeaway is the league is extremely good at predicting what this revenue is going to look like. And because of the structure that we've talked about all episode with the way that the salary cap and the TV deals and her play and the length of the TV deals, it's just extremely knowable what the future of the league looks like.”
204 / recommendation
“We think you should just compete against each other until your margins are zero, and we're going to accrue all the profit pool now, because there's basically nothing else that you'll put on that people want to watch.”
205 / evaluation
“Then Amazon is having to do make goods with the advertisers because Amazon wasn't able to get enough people to watch the streams because frankly, I think a lot of people want to watch the NFL on TV.”
206 / evaluation
“Players are effectively a partner in the league because the league's success ends up being their success, not necessarily evenly distributed among all players by any means, in fact, quite the opposite.”
207 / evaluation
“I think the Giants actually got more because Joe Namath was the other one in their city.”
208 / prediction
“The right thing was as soon as possible, the NFL to get as much distribution as possible because the TV rights would become the most important revenue line, but also the thing that most fueled the flywheel.”
209 / recommendation
“I listened to an episode of Invest Like the Best about a year ago, which was a really, really long interview with Graham Duncan.”
210 / recommendation
“One great book I read for research was Last Man Standing to prep for the Jamie Dimon interview.”
211 / belief
“I think Berkshire, we learned so many things from. We did this three part saga on Berkshire Hathaway.”
212 / belief
“If I had pitched you on Acquired in 2015, there's no way I would've said Acquired helps you understand why the world is arranged the way it is. Now I think that is absolutely the promise that we come through on.”
213 / belief
“I think we did our part two, and then we got a note from NVIDIA saying, Jensen has listened and wants to know who your inside sources are because it's the most correct telling of NVIDIA's story ever.”
214 / belief
“I think we already were awake to the idea that all that matters is the late years of compounding.”
215 / belief
“In fact, I remember in one of my last few years of being a venture capitalist, one of my partners asked me how I learned so much so quickly about different industry dynamics.”
216 / evaluation
“If an agency reaches out and says, we want to place ads on your podcast, we write them a very nice note if we're able to get to the email and say, oh, we don't work with agencies, but thank you so much for your interest.”
217 / belief
“Probably to a fault and with a bias, we believe that about Acquired every time we look at anything else.”
218 / belief
“Literally, Susan Wojcicki lived here. I think she just bought the house. David This was her house.”
219 / belief
“Season two is about to come back. I think that's Jonah Nolan and Lisa Joy again, artists.”
220 / belief
“We try to write it as if we're almost talking about what we think is interesting about the business.”
221 / belief
“I think in the first 10 episodes. The first five episodes, we got feedback saying, you guys need to disagree more, but I don't think we quite realized that we should reveal surprises for each other until five years ago, four years ago.”
222 / belief
“Again, this is one of these things that we learned early but then got reinforced through episodes.”
223 / belief
“We were currently researching Bell Labs, and I think I felt like we were chasing this esotericness.”
224 / belief
“I think the reasons Acquired will eventually fail, I don't think come from like platform disruption like, oh, TikTok's going to make it so people want short form instead of Acquired.”
225 / observation
“I don't think we figured out the way to do it, and everybody else should just snap our way.”
226 / commitment
“I will say one of the most interesting conversations was with Max Neukirchen, the global co-head of JP Morgan Payments.”
227 / belief
“I think you mean it earnestly and we mean it earnestly of like, I want to make something.”
228 / belief
“Companies that we think are great, where we don't have to take a side in a big contentious current thing conversation.”
229 / belief
“I think we're trying to store up as much potential energy in Acquired as we can rather than anytime there's a way to make it show up on the financial statements, like letting out the pressure and being like, yup, second show, yup, more ads, yup, dynamic ads from an ad network.”
230 / evaluation
“You were discovering these things that nobody's talking about, whereas when we do something like Trader Joe's, someone says, what are you working on, and we're like, Trader Joe's, they're like, I love Trader Joe's.”
231 / commitment
“There were a lot of things when we started doing Acquired where we were doing this business analysis podcast, but I didn't know finance.”
232 / prediction
“If we put this in the feed, if we don't live up to the expectations that our listeners have, we will burn them and they will leave us forever.”
233 / evaluation
“I think we found our way to that probably four-ish years ago, maybe five years ago, where we used to feel like we were bad at podcasting because we couldn't make very many, because we didn't have a whole production team, and we didn't have professional ad salespeople.”
234 / belief
“The founder then goes on to leave Coca-Cola and starts BodyArmor, a sports drink that (I think) is coconut water–based, a little bit more sugary.”
235 / uncertainty
“I don’t know who the Coke II fans were, but it was available for you at some point.”
236 / commitment
“We will get there. But it’s this notion of everything should be standardized. It should be the formula, it should be the marketing, it should be the packaging.”
237 / belief
“The company’s headquarters, I think the original Lay company, is an Atlanta company.”
238 / commitment
“Now, there is still that one term of the deal that was we will always sell a gallon for a dollar.”
239 / belief
“I think that’s why we focused the bulk of the episode on the pre-1998 Coca-Cola.”
240 / observation
“The constraint is it must be a non-alcoholic beverage business. And another constraint, it must throw off many billions of dollars in dividends along the way to your shareholders.”
241 / belief
“Tab quickly becomes the best-selling diet soda in America, I think in the world, and stays that way all the way up until they released Diet Coke, which we’ll talk about in a little bit.”
242 / belief
“I asked family members, I asked people who were like, yeah, I think that was a two- or three-year period.”
243 / belief
“My opinion has always been that Coca-Cola is the type of business that can be run.”
244 / belief
“Pepsi has 10%. I think there are a lot of things in soft drinks. If you just look at carbonated, Coca-Cola does have 47% market share and Pepsi has 19%.”
245 / belief
“I think the story of the last 25 years is they sit there in a privileged position, look around, and wait and see.”
246 / disagreement
“All right, I disagree. I think there were definitely periods in history, yes, but in 1985, no.”
247 / belief
“I’m pretty sure what actually happens is Pemberton lets his formula settle, and it’s this thick syrupy thing, brings it down the street to the first drugstore, and that druggist, that proprietor is the one who actually combines that syrup with the carbonated water and makes the choice, which I think could have gone either way.”
248 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if anyone’s told you this yet, but I think AI is the future, and it was quite helpful for me.”
249 / belief
“I think the more interesting playbook this time is a brief review of why Coca-Cola worked.”
250 / belief
“I think the idea is like, come on. We got to fight this. We can’t just be giving up our trademarks.”
251 / belief
“I would say Goizueta, at least as it comes across in the book Secret Formula, did a very good job of managing up and making sure that Woodruff felt taken care of and informed.”
252 / commitment
“You can import the coca leaves, do this, create a giant pile of cocaine, and then we will watch you destroy it.”
253 / belief
“I think Coca-Cola would be worse off today if they didn’t go through the New Coke moment, which is crazy to say—I guess we don’t have the counterfactual—but if you just look at the data on the resurgence in Coke afterwards, you couldn’t have come up with a better marketing stunt.”
254 / preference
“I’ve accidentally started doing that anyway because whenever I travel now, I use those PATH Water bottles that they sell in airports and you can just refill them.”
255 / evaluation
“The way in which this giant mass produced thing is created, it’s only stored (I believe) in two people’s head at any given time. They deliberately kept this a trade secret and didn’t patent it, because if you patent something, eventually it does become the property of the public and anyone can use it to further innovate.”
256 / evaluation
“Coca-Cola is one thing that means our formula, our secret formula with this mystery merchandise 7x, which is the real crux of the formula. And there are no other things that can be colas because we created the concept of Coca-Cola and we are N of one.”
257 / preference
“People insist that I prefer to swing by McDonald’s to get a Coke versus getting it somewhere else.”
258 / evaluation
“I would swear up and down too, but yes, this is the best example ever though of someone electing to use a trade secret instead of a patent, and then creating all this lore, secrecy, and myth around it.”
259 / evaluation
“I mean, in an era where most grocery chains are being disrupted, Trader Joe's cult following has driven it to be more successful than ever, at least as far as we can tell from the outside, because it is an intensely private company.”
260 / commitment
“Not this package. I will say now, when you go and grab, they're not just commodity nuts.”
261 / evaluation
“Imagine for every dollar you make, 73 cents is getting paid in taxes. He's like, "This is the worst structure imaginable!”
262 / belief
“A thing that they do here to sort of play into the "overeducated," or I would say, "highly educated, underpaid" is the Victorian art with the sort of cheesy, humorous captions.”
263 / commitment
“The brand is just our brand. If you make the food for us, we will pay you for that.”
264 / observation
“In real estate, having the bigger balance sheet is the way to be the preferred tenant, especially if you can promise, hey, longer leases and/or a more credit-worthy operating history.”
265 / belief
“The noise cancellation is insane. I think a lot of it's physical cancellation. Maybe the algorithms are better, too, and they're more comfortable over a long period of time—like on long runs.”
266 / uncertainty
“Now, margins are a different story. They famously only mark up 11 to 14%, and Trader Joe's is probably, I don't know, it seems like about twice that.”
267 / belief
“You can't shake out of it. So I think Trader Joe's is still counter-positioned in that way.”
268 / observation
“Let's hop all the way to the East Coast. They decided to start in Boston and build out a set of stores in the 500-mile corridor from Boston to D.”
269 / disagreement
“Oh, I disagree. On a per-SKU basis, I think Trader Joe's sells more nuts. Okay, that's fair.”
270 / observation
“I did a brief history of supermarkets in America to come up to speed on what Trader Joe's does differently and how we got here. So, you go way back, all the way to pre-Civil War America, and you've got general stores.”
271 / belief
“How come nobody else's house brand is just the name of the retailer? I think actually it exposes that Trader Joe's is all-in.”
272 / prediction
“Yes, it's a partnership, but it's not a great partnership because as soon as the CPG product becomes so wildly differentiated, they're going to start commanding—somehow squeezing more in the value chain.”
273 / evaluation
“They have healthcare benefits, dental, all that stuff. But the real kicker: they get a 20% discount at Trader Joe's, which no one gets because they never have any sort of discounts.”
274 / evaluation
“Executives who worked for him — stuffed C-suite dullards of the grotesquely self-confident variety — will drop all pretense and describe wanting to wake up early in the morning to race to work because they can't wait to hear what Joe has to say.”
275 / evaluation
“"And so if you just want to sell those to me, I'm sure I can unload them on our customers; they're going to love the deal. And then it's actually not a big deal for me when I run out, because that's not a part of our value proposition the way it is for the big supermarkets.”
276 / preference
“There are days I listen to so many audiobooks and podcasts that I don't notice it as much, because I feel like anytime I'm listening to something, it's words, not music.”
277 / preference
“I love it. Obviously, I love it because this is how you and I think about Acquired.”
278 / recommendation
“You can build a much better business on being known for, "I will be surprised and delighted when I come to the store, and you have selected interesting items for me," than you can on, "You are an empty vessel through which to provide me milk.”
279 / recommendation
“I find switching costs to be relatively low. I use Gemini for some stuff, then it’s really easy to switch away.”
280 / belief
“I think within a year it might happen. There are rumors already that some neoclouds in the coming months are going to have TPUs.”
281 / observation
“We got to rewind back all the way to 2004, the DARPA Grand Challenge, which was created as a way to spur research into autonomous ground robots for military use.”
282 / belief
“I think Larry and Sergey were like, hmm, if we’re going to compete seriously, we need Noam back and blank check to go get him.”
283 / belief
“People (I think) are starting to realize Google’s slow. They’re slow to react to things.”
284 / belief
“There’s a rental car company in Texas that manages it. Or they’ve partnered (I believe) with Lyft and Uber.”
285 / belief
“I think that’s the right call. Think about the big AI players. NVIDIA has a cloud, but not really.”
286 / belief
“Normally we would do this on the business all up. I think for this episode we should try to scope it to AI products.”
287 / commitment
“We could do a whole episode about this journey, but we will just hit some of the major points for the sake of time.”
288 / observation
“If you’re not a finance person, the way to read into that is yes, we still need a lot of cash for investing in the future of AI and data centers, but we still actually had way more cash than we needed and we decided to distribute that to shareholders.”
289 / commitment
“Most of you, we can’t fit millions of people in a tidy auditorium in San Francisco the week of the Super Bowl when every other venue has tons of stuff too, so there’ll be an opportunity to watch that streaming online. And as we get closer to that date in February, we will make sure that you all know a way that you can tune in and watch the MC-ing, interviewing, and festivities at hand, Super Bowl week.”
290 / uncertainty
“I don’t know, but at steady state it probably will be something like 25%, maybe up to 50%.”
291 / belief
“I wonder if they did talk to AWS at all about it. Because I think—this is a crazy Easter egg; I hesitate to say it out loud—AWS was actually in the very first investment with Elon in OpenAI.”
292 / belief
“I think that did meaningfully move the needle, even though Google wasn’t bragging about it and talking about it.”
293 / belief
“There’s an independent oversight board that is set up to make sure that the mission and goals of DeepMind are actually being followed. This is an asset that Google owns today that again, I think is worth half a trillion dollars if it’s independent.”
294 / commitment
“If they’re saying the most capital-intense race in business history is happening right now, we intend to win it. And we have tons of extra cash lying around on top of what we think, plus a safety cushion for investing in that CapEx race.”
295 / belief
“I think the number of AI pitch decks that VCs are seeing is starting to tick up around this time.”
296 / belief
“There was a billion dollars pledged. That came from famously Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Reid Hoffman, Jessica Livingston—who (I think) most people don’t realize was part of that initial tranche—and Peter Thiel.”
297 / belief
“I think I trust my Model Y FSD more than you do, but I get what you’re saying. And frankly, regulatorily, you are required to still pay attention in Tesla and not in the Waymo.”
298 / belief
“Alex and Ilya go to Geoff and say, I really think you should have a bigger percent. I think you should have 40% and we should each have 30%.”
299 / prediction
“Jeff Dean does the math, and figures out if people use this for (I don’t know call it) three minutes a day and we roll it out to all billion Android phones, we’re going to need twice the number of data centers that we currently have across all of Google just to handle it.”
300 / evaluation
“The TPU is a giant deal in AI in a way that I think a lot of people don’t realize.”
301 / evaluation
“In theory, this is really bad because it means you would need to be constantly waiting around on any given machine for the other machines to sync their updated parameters before you could proceed.”
302 / evaluation
“You don’t know: (a) how far the next breakthrough is because at any given time, there are lots of promising things in the field, most of which don’t work out.”
303 / evaluation
“One of the reasons that the judge cited of why they weren’t going to really take these actions is because of the race in AI. That because tens of billions of dollars of funding have gone into companies like OpenAI and Anthropic and Perplexity, Google essentially has this new war to fight and we’re going to leave it to the free market to do its thing where it creates viable competition on its own, and we’re not going to hamstring Google.”
304 / evaluation
“Because this is Google and they have (I think) the most obfuscated financials of any of the companies we’ve studied, they anger me the most in being able to hide the ball in their financial statements.”
305 / prediction
“I think the AI era we’re entering gets us to think about it.” This is the worst possible thing that could happen to Google, that now Microsoft can actually challenge Google on their own turf, intent on the Internet with a legitimately different, better, differentiated product vector.”
306 / recommendation
“I watched the Google IO keynote with Glass and I watched a bunch of Glass content.”
307 / uncertainty
“I don’t know about that. I don’t know that Google would’ve become the dominant player in display ads.”
308 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if Larry said, hey, I really think you should do this on our behalf.”
309 / belief
“I was about to say their infrastructure, but I think that’s actually a scale economy that they’ve built out the infrastructure they have so they can run all their products as cheaply as they can.”
310 / belief
“Less of an elegant, satisfying core insight I think and not the reason that it worked.”
311 / commitment
“The one thing I will say here, David, is unlike all those other Google products, maps, Gmail, YouTube, the organizing the world’s information, this is not organizing the world’s information and making it universally accessible.”
312 / belief
“I have one analogy for all of this that is a little far afield but I think is actually the right way to think about this.”
313 / belief
“I think Lucasfilm was mentioned at the bottom in the credits of every commercial.”
314 / observation
“The only way it could have gone better is if instead of launching Android, they launched the iPhone and they also got the iPhone profits rather than just some small dollars that protected their core business.”
315 / commitment
“We don’t currently have a buyer in our ad network forum, throw them up on this exchange and see if programmatically some people will bid on it. We will get more dollars this month for the same number of page views.”
316 / belief
“Still does by the way. Which I think held them back in AI for a while. They know the Google name means something, so they are reticent to throw their name on it until they got shoved off the cliff.”
317 / commitment
“Imagine that generating a whole bunch more page views on search results pages and a whole bunch more opportunities for our advertisers to reach your eyeballs. But I will say they were also correct from a user experience perspective, the fact that URLS ever leaked to the public is a mistake that is letting an implementation detail of the technology.”
318 / commitment
“For users all across the board. I won’t leave YouTube at this point. The algorithm’s dialed to my interests.”
319 / belief
“Anyway, I think that has made it extremely clear to me when Google products succeed and when they fail.”
320 / uncertainty
“Then the question becomes how profitable is the 50 billion in revenue? And officially we don’t know, but there are these great things called research firms out there that make our jobs that Acquired here much easier.”
321 / evaluation
“You know, what’s a coronary resource? They have built internal software and systems that is better than what is available outside of Google.”
322 / belief
“I think some things for Android users, think about Google now that predated Google Assistant, maybe Google Home.”
323 / belief
“A lot of them were also just at the right time in history. I think Android arrived at a lot of similar conclusions at the same time.”
324 / evaluation
“Just like we talked about on the Microsoft episodes, it really doesn’t matter when you fail and how many times you fail, even the size of your failures, if your hits are these giant world changing platform type tech businesses that endure for decades and that’s what they had on their hands.”
325 / uncertainty
“I don’t know, it’s a little bit loose, but that’s what I’ve been kicking around.”
326 / belief
“Here's why I want to pause David, and I’m going to take it in a little bit different direction than I think you’re probably expecting, which is so therefore they went after Facebook.”
327 / belief
“Gmail and Google Drive advantage each other. I think you can subtract one of those out.”
328 / observation
“There is one way that Chrome is a business and that is getting paid by Google to drive traffic to Google as a search engine. It’s the only way to operate a business of a browser.”
329 / belief
“Actually what happened is it destroyed Firefox’s market share and I think the launch of Chrome and the peak of Firefox are right around the same time.”
330 / commitment
“For searches that originate on your phone, we will give a little rev share to both the carrier and the OEM, the handset maker.”
331 / belief
“I think that the strategy was pretty tight at the top level and they just didn’t actually need to communicate it down very far.”
332 / commitment
“Now I will say I believe Apple reputation launderers a little bit. They get a lot of the value of being in the search business without having to do all the stuff that they demonize from a privacy and data sharing and all that ickiness perspective.”
333 / commitment
“I will say, David, doing the research took me way back to early Acquired grading acquisitions.”
334 / evaluation
“We had that awkward teenage years where browsers had the URL bar on the left and then the search on the right and it’s clean to think about it on its own because now that we understand that that is sponsored, that I think for the longest time that was not in the public psyche, that whatever search engine appeared in that box in the right hand corner was paying for that placement.”
335 / evaluation
“Actually traffic acquisition costs originated before Mozilla because it’s effectively the same thing that they were doing with software vendors to include Google toolbar.”
336 / preference
“Camp one is, hey, the way to make people most engaged is by getting them to follow creators and they curate the information sources they want.”
337 / preference
“I don’t know, I just love it. It’s a 2019 camera and they really need to come out with one that has USB-C because it’s annoying to charge.”
338 / prediction
“I believe, just to foreshadow our next chapter, that was in the form of programmatic advertising that was on the Doubleclick ad exchange that they were using to make money.”
339 / prediction
“Whereas YouTube can say, eh, whatever, but then they’re going to go out of business because they’re going to get sued out of business. It’s this really interesting catch-22 of this is the way to start and get all the users because this is the best user experience.”
340 / evaluation
“They were a systemic disadvantage because they were going to carriers and saying, why don’t you pay us $5, $10?”
341 / preference
“What explains this? Because usually, behavior follows incentives.”
342 / evaluation
“They’re looking for a CEO. Did they give Bank One shareholders 42% because they were looking for a CEO?”
343 / evaluation
“I think you had the same incentives as everyone else, but you behaved very differently.”
344 / belief
““We believe that the most effective and ultimately the most profitable way to accomplish our mission is to put the needs of our users first.”
345 / belief
“I think in the middle of negotiations, they got another term sheet at $150 million valuation instead of $100.”
346 / commitment
“I’m here for you and I will continue dumping this on you, even though I know you don’t watch TV.”
347 / belief
“The first and (I think) the most landmark of mine is The Rehearsal with Nathan Fielder, season two.”
348 / belief
“Absolutely. And we’re designing our own file systems with GFS, or I think we’ll talk about a lot of it in the next episode, but very real system-level software that is pioneering.”
349 / belief
“Everyone there was ludicrously high IQ from the very beginning. But I think that collaborative utopian thing went along with the IQ.”
350 / belief
“Three, four episodes are not as good as season one in my opinion, but the last eight episodes are some of the best Star Wars canon that exists.”
351 / belief
“When you say magical, there’s nothing magical about search ads, but I think you’re right that they’re the least offensive.”
352 / evaluation
“I think she’s a business unit manager or something like that, but Google didn’t really have business units.”
353 / prediction
“Not to spoil too much, but obviously this still plays out all the way to the much debated apple Safari deal today, and the tens of billions of dollars that Google still pays to Apple in traffic acquisition costs.”
354 / prediction
“I think (a) they believe search is going to be bigger than anyone could have realized, but (b) they had the insight of the exponential curve of content on the Internet is growing faster than Google will ever be able to index it all or come up with clever strategies to sort it all.”
355 / evaluation
“Advertisers are incentivized to make their ads more relevant, and only bid on the most relevant keywords because it means they don’t have to pay as much.”
356 / evaluation
“Later—there’s an easy point to make—Google got to hoover up all the best talent because they were a solid business after the dot-com crash.”
357 / commitment
“Listeners, if you want to know every time an episode drops, check out our email list. It’s the only place where we will share a hint of what our next episode will be.”
358 / prediction
“Because you could make the counter argument, shoot, Google is running away with the market.”
359 / commitment
“If I could paraphrase my view of it, you were willing to say, we’re going to spend whatever it takes.”
360 / preference
“We don’t seek to have an organization full of teamwork. It’s teamwork because we want some output.”
361 / evaluation
“You paid for the whole arena and you’re going to have slower payback on that because you have less revenue opportunity.”
362 / evaluation
“I think Google was making more money off of a PC user than Microsoft was because their business model generated more search revenue.”
363 / evaluation
“IBM thought, oh we’ve got some protection from Microsoft, disintermediating us from all the developers and all the potential customers, because targeting our BIOS is going to be important and unreplicable.”
364 / evaluation
“They never raised any venture capital and they’ve never done any acquisitions in their 47 years of existence. They don’t work remotely.”
365 / belief
“We’ll share corrections from previous episodes, and little tidbits that we learned along the way.”
366 / belief
“You’re starting to get these political wins of, hey, everyone wants a good system for electronic medical records. We think in the abstract there’ll be a lot of good that comes from it.”
367 / belief
“Small. But I think to get to this point that we’ve been hitting in a bunch of different ways, as long as you can win deals in the short-term early days without sales and marketing spend, and you can just spend all of your costs or as much as possible on R&D, that R&D does compound over time to give you a big competitive advantage later in life that other forms of spend do not.”
368 / belief
“” The quote, I actually don’t think it was at all about catching up with the rest of the world on digitization. I think we were a leader there.”
369 / belief
“What are things that we just all agree on are good ideas for the country that should happen? And let’s just pass some legislation that rewards the crap out of people with free money for doing the things that we think are a good idea anyway.”
370 / belief
“I think so too. It’ll be useful for clinical trials. It’ll be useful for research.”
371 / commitment
“There’s a great read called An Epic Dystopia. I will say this article presents a one-sided view of things.”
372 / uncertainty
“Most fairly good ideas are adjacent to even better ones.” I just thought, I don’t know.”
373 / uncertainty
“I have three institutions that I’ve gone to over the years for various other stuff that are all on Epic. I don’t know why that one hospital is still on Cerner.”
374 / observation
“Buffet’s been running Berkshire for over 50 years. But in Judy’s case, having 47 years to imbue the founder’s personality into the organization as it’s built all the way to this scale is really rare and really powerful.”
375 / belief
“Meanwhile, I think post-Oracle acquisition, Oracle’s trying to rewrite it all anyway.”
376 / observation
“You also can’t do their clever bundling in a bunch of free stuff that you might want to use in the future unless you have the scale economies also. They just develop a lot of software that they either throw in for free or offer to you in the future, and the only way you can develop that much software is have a huge number of customers to amortize it across.”
377 / belief
“If you’re looking for a smoking gun on regulatory capture, I think the right way to characterize this is as regulatory tailwind rather than regulatory capture.”
378 / commitment
“Bush also says, “We will do more to make this coverage portable, so workers can switch jobs without having to worry about their health insurance.”
379 / belief
“I think at this point in history, 2025, when the customer wants to do something a certain way and Epic wants to do something a certain way, ultimately Epic is customer-focused, so they will do whatever the customer wants, but they’re going to lay out very compelling convincing arguments why their way is the correct way.”
380 / belief
“Runaway costs, burdens of administration, so much excess and waste causing (I think) healthcare costs are now 18% of our GDP.”
381 / belief
“I think what was happening is they had this nascent market in the proto EHR world, where they were able to sell something small enough at enough of a profit to be self-sustaining while they bided their time and built out the bigger suite.”
382 / commitment
“The compromise is we will create Medicare for those over 65 and Medicaid if you have a low income or other special situations.”
383 / uncertainty
“I don’t know about the industry, but for Epic, which I guess now for the industry.”
384 / uncertainty
“I think that’s a red herring. We don’t know what the bottom line price looks like.”
385 / belief
“The crazy thing is, I think when American Girl moved out, Epic bought some of their furniture.”
386 / evaluation
“There are some financial controls of course, but Judy’s got this great story that she used to go see customers and they’d say, oh this is the right thing to do.”
387 / belief
“I would argue there are two big reasons Epic wins today. One is reliability. But the reliability also comes from the fact that it’s all built on one database.”
388 / belief
“Epic’s been doing this forever. This is the Epic way that (I think) the rest of the world woke up to and startups internalized as doctrine.”
389 / belief
“I think you saw it originally with Chronicles, her abstract creative thought, the notion of an epic, the Greek epic is this big story, this big longitudinal, historic event.”
390 / belief
“The current competitive set is now what we’re dealing with, and we think the current competitive set is good enough that this is shovel-ready enough that we want the best ones to get implemented everywhere.”
391 / observation
“Almost the only way in which Epic intersected with Silicon Valley in the entire company’s history, but this is a crazy point.”
392 / belief
“We talked to dozens of people and I think we can probably thank four or five of them specifically on air.”
393 / uncertainty
“I don’t know anything you just said, so I got to go look it up because none of that made any sense to me.”
394 / uncertainty
“Many, many times—I don’t know if the number is close to 100% or some large percent of the time—they just don’t interview you.”
395 / evaluation
“There was this era where hospitals thought that EMRs should be their IP that they develop and have a competitive advantage over other hospitals because their EMR was better.”
396 / recommendation
“Just imagine dollars out of your pocket for healthcare and don’t even just pick this year, pick a 10-year period because stuff might come up.”
397 / evaluation
“I think that’s the right way to look at it. They’re customer-obsessed because in the long-term, that is the right thing to do for Epic also.”
398 / evaluation
“Despite being large—I think at this point they’re close to $6 billion in revenue and over 14,000 employees—they have a stated goal to never go public and never be acquired.”
399 / belief
“I think, David, you are correctly reading into the BCCI is starting to say, eh, just hold tight.”
400 / belief
“I think Disney wanted to also go for the streaming rights, but I think the assumptions you have to make about the growth and monetization potential of streaming are a pretty big leap to say, yeah they’re worth the same as TV now, which has a lot of hungry advertising customers standing there with cash now saying I want to advertise on this product.”
401 / belief
“Just to add one more great game design mechanic, the winner of the whole thing gets (I think) a $3 million grand prize in that first year.”
402 / uncertainty
“I don't know if it’s called an umpire or referee, but someone wearing a hat has a little camera on the top of their hat.”
403 / evaluation
“You better get enough cash in just a few years of playing in some new league that it doesn’t matter if you ever need to do anything else again.”
404 / belief
“There was a news story in 2023 (I think) about them trying to invest in the IPL at a $30 billion valuation, which is 2x even the highest number I’ve seen.”
405 / uncertainty
“I don't know why I would watch one of the first three periods of an NBA game or the first three quarters of the season.”
406 / commitment
“I will say, given how rushed this was, it is shocking how well it has all set up.”
407 / belief
“I think four of the six major league cricket teams in the US have IPL ownership.”
408 / belief
“I think One Day Internationals, they actually did start wearing more athletic clothing.”
409 / commitment
“I will say the ALCS—I’m from Cleveland—the Guardian’s total payroll was $106 million playing the Yankees who is $309 million.”
410 / observation
“The capital calls are the way to do it. It’s an incredible way to get someone to bid $50-$100 million for something that doesn’t exist yet, to say well, in the first year you’re only out $5 million.”
411 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if Lalit was thinking he would actually call IPL the Indian Cricket League, but then something else launches called the Indian Cricket League.”
412 / belief
“I think that’s an interesting way to look at it, but again, nobody owns a league.”
413 / belief
“I think by our calculations—we tried to estimate a P&L for any given team—we’re looking at something today like $66 million coming from a central pool and only $4-ish million coming from tickets.”
414 / commitment
“The IPL team owners are starting to own or have partnerships with the other T20 leagues that are popping up. So it’s very easy for them to be like, you guys shouldn’t allow a players’ union and we won’t allow a players’ union.”
415 / evaluation
“You just want to assume that if someone knows that they’re about to launch a huge new cricket league that’s not included in your contract and you’re operating under the idea that it is included in your contract, what’s in the contract doesn’t matter as much as what you both feel like you’re agreeing to.”
416 / belief
“Major League Cricket, for listeners out there, I’d spent a good amount of time with Soma Somasegar, who is the former Microsoft exec now at Madrona, who is a co-owner with Satya Nadella of the Seattle Major League Cricket team. It is very interesting getting his perspective on developing Major League Cricket in the US because I think the whole bet with Major League Cricket is we got to build cricket fandom domestically in a grassroots way with players here, slowly over time.”
417 / belief
“If you want to know every time an episode drops, check out our email list. It’s the only place where we share a hint at what our next episode will be and share episode corrections, updates, and little tidbits that we learned from previous episodes.”
418 / commitment
“I will say more than any other episode that we’ve done, it seems like every element of this has two completely different sides to the story, both of which the leaders of that side dig in and maintain their side.”
419 / belief
“To apply this to the IPL, the question is who are the IPL’S competitors? And I think because they are so n-of-one at this point, you have to think about it as their potential competitors or potential competitors in the past that they have since vanquished.”
420 / belief
“I’ve been afraid of mystery box–style shows since Lost disappointed me, and I think Severance is going to give me a warm, nice embrace.”
421 / evaluation
“What is the actual income statement look like? It’s impossible to know for sure because none of this is public and reported.”
422 / observation
“TSMC would fab the chips, would manufacture them, NVIDIA would design them. That is true all the way to today at immense scale.”
423 / belief
“We did a great live episode several years ago on Qualcomm, which I think is a sleeper pick.”
424 / belief
“I think that episode holds up really well, where we did semiconductor and complexity theory with them.”
425 / belief
“I signed up for AAA while I’m just sitting there in the gas station parking lot, and within, I think an hour, hour-and-a-half, they had a mobile tire inflator on a long weekend, like a holiday weekend when other people aren’t working, drive out and fill up the air in my tire so we could be quickly on our way, not ruin the weekend.”
426 / belief
“I learned so much about CMOS sensors, about how they make the actual silicon wafers themselves.”
427 / belief
“I think he was within 12 months of when he thought it would happen, but it is crazy that, especially in his venir, you’re reading the story about the early customers.”
428 / uncertainty
“I keep thinking about the fact that they can spend $20 billion to build a building, and the stuff that they spit out is so valuable that that $20 billion was a profitable investment in a matter of, I don’t know how many years.”
429 / belief
“If you like Acquired and you wish you had something Acquired-like that’s visual, that’s about history, intellectual property, and people trying crazy stuff, some of the most crazy entrepreneurs and executives within companies decided to build theme parks. It is very fun to see the weird old Nickelodeon hotels or action park in (I think) New Jersey, the wildly unsafe park from the 60s, 70s and 80s.”
430 / belief
“Phase one was open, which I think is a quarter of the building, but then there are three other phases for this two-nanometer facility that are not even ready for primetime yet.”
431 / prediction
“You have to keep peeling the onion because this (of course) supposes that Intel actually could have gotten their act together and made a chip for mobile phones that was performant.”
432 / evaluation
“One of the things that I think is underappreciated and we didn’t talk that much about with Morris, but the rise of ARM.”
433 / evaluation
“This is why you started TSMC as a pure play foundry business because you didn’t want to compete head-to-head.”
434 / evaluation
“I get the sense because the thing that they were good at was this manufacturing angle.”
435 / prediction
“Ideally, you spend no time in the low volume period. It seems like over time, all the returns in the industry, the winner is the one with all the volume, because they’ll just have the lowest prices.”
436 / evaluation
“Because this was effectively betting a huge amount of the company’s cash on this node, this process, this generation.”
437 / evaluation
“Which is funny because in older interviews sometimes he goes, well, the timing was a little lucky on when fabless happened. But I think he even said to Jensen in the first few years of TSMC, growth wasn’t very high because we were waiting for the customers to emerge.”
438 / evaluation
“Because you had committed to a schedule of price drops with customers, but you weren’t able to drive down your manufacturing costs at the same rate.”
439 / belief
“A lot of times, shows, I think, have a hard time maintaining their season one into momentum into two and two into three, and there’s no problem with that here.”
440 / uncertainty
“We don’t know the margin of the pet hospitals versus the dog food, versus the candy.”
441 / belief
“Last one. I think last year I carved out Silo. Silo season two is here on Apple TV, and it is excellent.”
442 / belief
“I think for the biggest businesses in the world, it’s these businesses that operate at high gross margins in very large markets, where you basically can build out a massive fixed cost base and then have great operating leverage.”
443 / belief
“I think the candy industry used to have cornered resources. I don’t really think it does anymore.”
444 / belief
“Maybe in smaller shops, but that’s (I think) especially with supermarkets when that changed.”
445 / belief
“I found that it was 70%, and the place that I found it was from—this is flashing forward a little bit—some 1979 consumer market research that Mars commissioned.”
446 / belief
“I think as far as Mars thinking about, geez, we want some diversification hedge if people stop eating candy bars, they’re on a good trend there.”
447 / commitment
“I will say it is pretty incredible how much from here on out, the story is a story of ad campaigns.”
448 / uncertainty
“Everybody who eats sugar today knows that if you’re eating sugar, it is triggering, I don’t know if it’s dopamine or serotonin, but there’s definitely a stimulus of a happiness release.”
449 / belief
“I know. But yes, I think you are right. The milk chocolate and the peanut are the sales drivers.”
450 / observation
“The second benefit is they don’t pay as many taxes since they’re reinvesting before those dollars fall all the way to the bottom line as income.”
451 / commitment
“Actually, there’s a fun story around that that we will talk about a little bit later.”
452 / belief
“Chocolate is remarkably hard to make. I think that is a huge takeaway. The fact that I’m looking down here at all these bags of M&M’s and the Snickers bar, we just assume, oh, this is an industrial thing that just comes off the line.”
453 / uncertainty
“In part, this is American capitalists coming into an industry. I don’t know if you know this or not, both of those families were Quakers.”
454 / evaluation
“Is it that different if left absorbs right or right absorbs left? If you’re the controlling shareholder of both, no, it doesn’t matter.”
455 / belief
“I think part of it was also a spike in strawberry prices, so they just did away with the vanilla, and now it’s just called 3 Musketeers, even though it’s only the chocolate variant.”
456 / commitment
“You may know that they own the world’s most popular candy, Snickers, in addition to M& M’s, or perhaps you know they’re in the pet food business. But they also own everything from Ben’s Original Rice to now Kind Bars, and they have one massive deal in the works that we will talk about later on this episode.”
457 / belief
“My second one, I think a while ago, I mentioned I got a Tesla Model Y, which is just an awesome car.”
458 / belief
“In many ways, it feels Bernard Arnault-esque, like, you guys, look what I learned in America.”
459 / belief
“We picked M&M’s, thinking this’ll be just some nice light hearted fare about the candies and the characters on commercials that remind us all of our childhood. But as we dug into Mars Incorporated, the parent company, we realized that the story is totally thrilling.”
460 / uncertainty
“There’s a thing I want to bring up with you, and this has been a debate in the acquired Slack, I don’t know if you’ve seen it at all, around branding.”
461 / belief
“I think part of this comes from the fact that they’re just amazing at the industrialization of production.”
462 / evaluation
“In markets where it is important to be first to market, getting scale quickly so you become the product of record or of reference when people are trying to describe the category.”
463 / uncertainty
“There are two versions of the story, and we don’t know which one is true. Either way, David, it leads to this thing that you’re talking about, which is there’s a little bit of a funk or a little bit of a sourness in Hershey’s chocolate.”
464 / preference
“I might not even be able to finish a whole Snickers bar just because it’s so sugary, but, oh, my God, is that first bite good.”
465 / evaluation
“I thought this was a recent diversification hedge, but here it is effectively at the founding of Mars or at least Forrest’s modern Mars, and he’s in the first second year of business buying and diversifying to pet food. It was immediately a good idea because it became profitable after just a couple of years, and started generating enough cash flow to fund the expansion of Mars bars.”
466 / recommendation
“We just had one of my favorite conversations ever on the show, in part because I just love talking computer architecture, with Rene Haas, who is the CEO of Arm Holdings, the chip design company that makes the designs and the instruction set architecture of everything inside your smartphone, your car, your laptop, and now even massively in the data centers.”
467 / evaluation
“I probably ate more than a recommended amount because we’ve been sitting here for 5½ hours doing this.”
468 / recommendation
“In fact, in particular, for each of these episodes now, I read the Worldly Partners research on the company we’re covering from front of the show, Arvind.”
469 / commitment
“If you just think about all the ways in which they whittle price down, every single place they could make a deal with a customer and say, hey, how about you do a little bit of work and we don’t, we will give you a better price, and the customer says, okay.”
470 / belief
“I think mine is the combination of never taking a single outside shareholder plus Ingvar’s personality and the desire to serve the many equals this company.”
471 / belief
“Not to mention, at this point, IKEA, I think 10% of their furniture is actually made in-house at IKEA.”
472 / uncertainty
“I’m sure they don’t lose, but they don’t make as much money. I don’t know. Maybe they do lose money on online orders.”
473 / belief
“Trying to buy materials at a discount, minimal sales staff, no finishes on unseen services, flat-packing, no one has assistance, I think actually the CEO is the only person at the company with an assistant, no one flies first class, they print on both sides of the paper.”
474 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if it’s 860 million unique people or 860 million times a person walked into the door, but whatever.”
475 / commitment
“I will say a thing that illustrates every point we’ve been making on this episode really, really well is, so they bought TaskRabbit for a small amount, $50–$75 million somewhere in there A few years ago.”
476 / observation
“The only way in which it hurts them is access to capital, but they don’t need money.”
477 / belief
“From what I could tell—I’m not a tax expert—I think royalties are tax-deductible.”
478 / uncertainty
“Maybe there’s, I don’t know, but yeah, you and I ran the numbers, I’ll pull up the spreadsheet real quick.”
479 / uncertainty
“I wish it had a new processor. I don’t know. It’s a bummer. They don’t care and it’s clear.”
480 / belief
“I’ve never eaten at IKEA just to eat lunch. I realized Ohio did not get an IKEA for a really long time.”
481 / belief
“I think that where the original IKEA was is now the parking lot and they’ve shifted and built this new shiny building next to it.”
482 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if it’s as religious, but they are looking to make money on everything they sell.”
483 / belief
“Around this time, I think when they were observing, the US stores were not in great shape.”
484 / belief
“I think different product categories are named after different things, like rivers, and certain furniture is named almost like conference room naming at companies.”
485 / belief
“Yup, and when you look at the old catalogs, you can tell. It’s not this simple Swedish design that we think about as IKEA as today.”
486 / belief
“David, I think where you’re going with this is they really start going down, once IKEA does meaningfully start investing in e-commerce, starting in 2018 is when they really put their foot on the gas.”
487 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if you could walk up and try to order a hot dog that’s less than $1, but it is $1.”
488 / commitment
“I will say the Småland at the Seattle store, the idea is a little bit better than the execution.”
489 / belief
“I think there are certainly a lot of question marks around what do they look like in an e-commerce world, a world that’s shifting to urbanization, and a world where they’re now a big company.”
490 / belief
“Have beautiful form. I think that’s a part of it, too, is it’s supposed to have the form and design.”
491 / evaluation
“We will flash all the way forward to modern day. Ingvar always owned 100% of IKEA.”
492 / commitment
“While we will of course discuss these events as part of our story and analysis, our goal today on this podcast episode is really to understand how it is that Meta became the dominant fabric that connects the human race, and why they’ve been so successful at continuing to win over and over again.”
493 / belief
“As you looked at not the high level metrics of how many users have ever signed up, because MySpace and Friendster, I think we’re still way ahead at this point, if you looked at how’s this going to play out if it keeps compounding and you looked at the deeper metrics, you thought, oh, I’m running the better company by a lot.”
494 / evaluation
“The scarce commodity is trust. That is the important lesson here. It’s also a very convenient infrastructure decision, where if these two systems truly don’t need to talk to each other, that’s great.”
495 / belief
“I think Mark realizes, oh, I have created one of the most engaging technology applications ever.”
496 / commitment
“All right, so we will catch you up on the business today just to put some numbers to all of this, and then we will move into analysis.”
497 / evaluation
“I don’t think open compute had started yet, but that was right around this time where they were starting to open source their data center designs.”
498 / belief
“I think when someone invents a new interaction paradigm, it’s one of these things where you have to adopt it, because otherwise people are just going to flee.”
499 / belief
“Not that I think that was a real possibility anyway because things were moving so fast.”
500 / belief
“Facebook I believe was going to call it the awesome button. And then at some point right before launching, I think Mark personally made the call, it’s just too weird.”