High Signal Podcasts Evidence ledger
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Public evidence record

Tyler Cowen

Published podcast speaker

Claims
500
Episodes
97
Shows
2
Named items
57

Books, apps, and tools

The evidenced stack.

Browse the grouped index →

book / likes

A History of British Art

“I’m a big fan of your book, A History of British Art. In that, you insightfully remark that a lot of English art earlier on was harder, more angular, and less obsessed with perspective.”

Conversations with Tyler · 22 Jul 2026

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

book / likes

Two Paths to Prosperity

“Again, I’m a big fan of your new book with Greif and Tabellini, Two Paths to Prosperity, comparing Europe and China.”

Conversations with Tyler · 8 Jul 2026

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

other / likes

Bergman films

“What are your favorite movies and why? I love Bergman films, Smiles of a Summer Night.”

Conversations with Tyler · 29 Apr 2026

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

other / likes

Smiles of a Summer Night

“I like Smiles of a Summer Night very much, the Mozartian feel, the Shakespeare connection.”

Conversations with Tyler · 8 May 2019

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

other / likes

Silent All These Years

“I like Silent All These Years by Tori Amos, especially the live version.”

Conversations with Tyler · 29 Apr 2026

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

book / recommends

Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity

“He has a new book out, Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity, which I recommend very highly.”

Conversations with Tyler · 21 Jan 2026

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

app / uses

GPT-5 Pro

“If I use GPT-5 Pro edition, it will outperform a very good human lawyer for a typical query.”

Conversations with Tyler · 17 Dec 2025

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

app / likes

Pulse

“Now, I love Pulse. Why don’t I hear more about Pulse, or do you think there is a lot of chatter out there?”

Conversations with Tyler · 5 Nov 2025

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

book / uses

A Farewell to Alms

“If we take England — when I read your book, A Farewell to Alms, I took you to be ambiguous, but when I reread that book through the lens of your later papers, it seems to me you’re saying there was an actual genetic change in English society because of who was marrying whom and having kids with whom, and thus, people saved more, became more conscientious, more forward-looking.”

Conversations with Tyler · 19 Feb 2025

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

book / built

Goat: Who's the Greatest Economist of All Time?

“The last book I wrote is called Goat: Who's the Greatest Economist of All Time?”

Dwarkesh Podcast · 9 Jan 2025

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

person / likes

Christopher Kirchhoff

“I like the Christopher Kirchhoff episode and how he never said the word “um.” You might edit out an “um” here and there.”

Conversations with Tyler · 25 Dec 2024

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

other / likes

Brazil

“I love Brazil, it’s one of my favorite countries, but I always worry about where I should and should not go there.”

Conversations with Tyler · 15 May 2024

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

Claim ledger

What Tyler said.

500 transcript-backed records

02 / evaluation

Basically, the quantity of trade is inversely proportional to the distance of countries once you adjust for incomes and some other matters. That seems to be another case where the relative price doesn’t matter that much because few people think the gravity equation is about transportation costs.

“Basically, the quantity of trade is inversely proportional to the distance of countries once you adjust for incomes and some other matters. That seems to be another case where the relative price doesn’t matter that much because few people think the gravity equation is about transportation costs.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / recommendation

You want to tax people, tax in the broad sense of the term, living in rural areas, if only because it’s much harder to have government help them, right?

“You want to tax people, tax in the broad sense of the term, living in rural areas, if only because it’s much harder to have government help them, right?”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / uncertainty

I’m not sure that’s true because it seems there’s a lot of countries that when people get to something like $28,000 per capita income that they just turn much greener, and they clean up their air.

“I’m not sure that’s true because it seems there’s a lot of countries that when people get to something like $28,000 per capita income that they just turn much greener, and they clean up their air.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / recommendation

He also is involved in San Francisco Standard, but most importantly, from our point of view, Michael has a new and excellent book out called Ausländer: One Family’s Story of Escape and Exile, which I absolutely recommend to you all.

“He also is involved in San Francisco Standard, but most importantly, from our point of view, Michael has a new and excellent book out called Ausländer: One Family’s Story of Escape and Exile, which I absolutely recommend to you all.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

09 / preference

Now, of course, I’ll read guidebooks, ask my AIs, but what else should I know to make my visit a better one that I won’t pick up from traditional sources?

“Now, of course, I’ll read guidebooks, ask my AIs, but what else should I know to make my visit a better one that I won’t pick up from traditional sources?”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / belief

Say book markets and the printing press, they weaponized Marx and Lenin for many decades. That’s an algorithm in the very broad sense that led to terrible consequences, much worse than whatever you might think current social media have done, and yet we believe in free speech for the printing press.

“Say book markets and the printing press, they weaponized Marx and Lenin for many decades. That’s an algorithm in the very broad sense that led to terrible consequences, much worse than whatever you might think current social media have done, and yet we believe in free speech for the printing press.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / recommendation

Before my last question, just to plug your book again, which I enjoyed very much, Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy, coming in paperback.

“Before my last question, just to plug your book again, which I enjoyed very much, Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy, coming in paperback.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / belief

To keep on signaling so you don’t get purged or that you’re not a purger is I think what’s going on with the flowers, is opening the door, but it’s still somewhat of a mystery to me.

“To keep on signaling so you don’t get purged or that you’re not a purger is I think what’s going on with the flowers, is opening the door, but it’s still somewhat of a mystery to me.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

17 / evaluation

I’m a big fan of your book, A History of British Art. In that, you insightfully remark that a lot of English art earlier on was harder, more angular, and less obsessed with perspective.

“I’m a big fan of your book, A History of British Art. In that, you insightfully remark that a lot of English art earlier on was harder, more angular, and less obsessed with perspective.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / belief

If I think about more recent neighborhoods, I understand King Charles may be trying, but it’s hard for me to think of a single place in America also that I consider highly attractive in the same way that British-built neighborhoods might have been knockouts, say before World War II, whatever the cutoff date may be.

“If I think about more recent neighborhoods, I understand King Charles may be trying, but it’s hard for me to think of a single place in America also that I consider highly attractive in the same way that British-built neighborhoods might have been knockouts, say before World War II, whatever the cutoff date may be.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / preference

If I look at The Art of Painting, a painting by Vermeer in Vienna, one of my favorites, I used to think of that as a Catholic painting, in part because of the map in the back of the scene.

“If I look at The Art of Painting, a painting by Vermeer in Vienna, one of my favorites, I used to think of that as a Catholic painting, in part because of the map in the back of the scene.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

26 / uncertainty

I don’t know how true it is, but that many East Germans still today are somewhat resentful or upset because they feel pushed out of leadership positions in business, in culture, in media, often in politics.

“I don’t know how true it is, but that many East Germans still today are somewhat resentful or upset because they feel pushed out of leadership positions in business, in culture, in media, often in politics.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

36 / evaluation

She is an archaeologist at the University of Pennsylvania, and she has a new book out called Surviving Rome: The Economic Lives of the Ninety Percent. It has perhaps been my favorite economics book of the last year, though I think to the rest of the world it is more of a history book and an archaeology book.

“She is an archaeologist at the University of Pennsylvania, and she has a new book out called Surviving Rome: The Economic Lives of the Ninety Percent. It has perhaps been my favorite economics book of the last year, though I think to the rest of the world it is more of a history book and an archaeology book.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

39 / evaluation

What do you think of the view that books on happiness or the meaning of life, they’re a kind of placebo? They don’t help directly, but you feel you’ve done something to become happier, and the placebo is somewhat effective.

“What do you think of the view that books on happiness or the meaning of life, they’re a kind of placebo? They don’t help directly, but you feel you’ve done something to become happier, and the placebo is somewhat effective.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

43 / belief

I think human capital is by far the biggest problem. Then the slow rate at which small informal businesses are willing to enter the more heavily regulated sector is a real bottleneck.

“I think human capital is by far the biggest problem. Then the slow rate at which small informal businesses are willing to enter the more heavily regulated sector is a real bottleneck.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

45 / belief

Now more recently, Mexico has a reputation for being very violent, but Yucatán is especially peaceful. There are years where it’s had a lower murder rate, I think, than Finland.

“Now more recently, Mexico has a reputation for being very violent, but Yucatán is especially peaceful. There are years where it’s had a lower murder rate, I think, than Finland.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

47 / evaluation

He has a new book out: Mexico: A 500-Year History. It is, in my view, the single best introduction to the history of Mexico and will be one of the best nonfiction books of this year, 2026.

“He has a new book out: Mexico: A 500-Year History. It is, in my view, the single best introduction to the history of Mexico and will be one of the best nonfiction books of this year, 2026.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

53 / commitment

Now, the premise of this episode is, we’re going to discuss Shakespeare’s Measure for Measure. That’s not the only thing we’ll do, but that is what we will start with.

“Now, the premise of this episode is, we’re going to discuss Shakespeare’s Measure for Measure. That’s not the only thing we’ll do, but that is what we will start with.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

55 / preference

Now, let me give you my third and least literal reading, which I’m not convinced was ever in the mind of Shakespeare—not necessarily his intent, but it’s the one I like best, and it’s what makes the play, for me, genius.

“Now, let me give you my third and least literal reading, which I’m not convinced was ever in the mind of Shakespeare—not necessarily his intent, but it’s the one I like best, and it’s what makes the play, for me, genius.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

57 / belief

If there’s something like a public option, a series of safe assets, T-bills, FDIC-insured checking accounts, or some equivalent thereof, I think that’s the most we can do for people.

“If there’s something like a public option, a series of safe assets, T-bills, FDIC-insured checking accounts, or some equivalent thereof, I think that’s the most we can do for people.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

59 / belief

The kind of explicit numerical commitment that the FDIC made, say, even Germany thought was a bad idea until relatively recently, so Roosevelt was not as crazy as he sounded. But if you simply have some kind of bank lending and recapitalization program so the money supply doesn’t go bust, that would have been good enough, whether or not it’s exactly the FDIC, at least in my opinion.

“The kind of explicit numerical commitment that the FDIC made, say, even Germany thought was a bad idea until relatively recently, so Roosevelt was not as crazy as he sounded. But if you simply have some kind of bank lending and recapitalization program so the money supply doesn’t go bust, that would have been good enough, whether or not it’s exactly the FDIC, at least in my opinion.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

60 / belief

I agree with much of what was done, but keep in mind, they’re always sitting down with the Treasury secretary, and these decisions are made jointly, which I would say is inevitable, not a complaint I have.

“I agree with much of what was done, but keep in mind, they’re always sitting down with the Treasury secretary, and these decisions are made jointly, which I would say is inevitable, not a complaint I have.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

61 / belief

I think I agree with that, and it will be necessary. Even with high debt and deficits, there’s only so many T-bills to go around, and we want to use them for everything So, does the rest of the world.

“I think I agree with that, and it will be necessary. Even with high debt and deficits, there’s only so many T-bills to go around, and we want to use them for everything So, does the rest of the world.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

62 / belief

I think we need stronger social norms that any new thing, whether it’s sports gambling or something in crypto or whatever, it is gambling of some sort.

“I think we need stronger social norms that any new thing, whether it’s sports gambling or something in crypto or whatever, it is gambling of some sort.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

64 / prediction

I think two things I would have done is, have something like deposit insurance to begin with, and then do what Sweden did and get off the gold standard as quickly as is necessary, and then, I think, it would have been quite a mild downturn had one done those two things.

“I think two things I would have done is, have something like deposit insurance to begin with, and then do what Sweden did and get off the gold standard as quickly as is necessary, and then, I think, it would have been quite a mild downturn had one done those two things.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

65 / evaluation

I’m not opposed to bank capital requirements, but I don’t know how much capital these small, often non-branched banks could have raised in that environment, so I don’t think that’s the best answer.

“I’m not opposed to bank capital requirements, but I don’t know how much capital these small, often non-branched banks could have raised in that environment, so I don’t think that’s the best answer.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

66 / belief

If I think of the 12th and 13th centuries in England and France, parts of Spain, there are so many just incredible cathedrals or religious structures built, many of them still with us.

“If I think of the 12th and 13th centuries in England and France, parts of Spain, there are so many just incredible cathedrals or religious structures built, many of them still with us.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

73 / prediction

One view is no one respects the experts because the machines are better, but I think an alternative possibility is the machine, by not being tied to a personality, is less disliked.

“One view is no one respects the experts because the machines are better, but I think an alternative possibility is the machine, by not being tied to a personality, is less disliked.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

93 / belief

I think what also has changed, and we’re speaking the day after the election results, where the Democrats won a lot by more than expected, is this will motivate the Republican Congress to stand up to Trump more and be more resistant.

“I think what also has changed, and we’re speaking the day after the election results, where the Democrats won a lot by more than expected, is this will motivate the Republican Congress to stand up to Trump more and be more resistant.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

104 / belief

I think of it as a minimized surprise kind of theory, that you’re confronted with data from the world, and then you interpret the data and coordinate your actions in such a way to minimize surprise.

“I think of it as a minimized surprise kind of theory, that you’re confronted with data from the world, and then you interpret the data and coordinate your actions in such a way to minimize surprise.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

108 / belief

In my introduction to that other event a while back, I think I also said that Gaurav is someone who is unique, that he has this eye for judging quality in a deep sense, that he can apply to cities, to hires, to artworks, and also to investments, and that breadth across the board is something quite remarkable about him.

“In my introduction to that other event a while back, I think I also said that Gaurav is someone who is unique, that he has this eye for judging quality in a deep sense, that he can apply to cities, to hires, to artworks, and also to investments, and that breadth across the board is something quite remarkable about him.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

109 / evaluation

Chinese suburbs strike me as really quite mediocre. They can have excellent food as pretty much all of China does, but after that, I don’t see anything to recommend them at all.

“Chinese suburbs strike me as really quite mediocre. They can have excellent food as pretty much all of China does, but after that, I don’t see anything to recommend them at all.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

110 / evaluation

Why think the Chinese are doing it well? They’re obsessed with technology, but because they don’t have the private sector involved enough, they make the wrong picks.

“Why think the Chinese are doing it well? They’re obsessed with technology, but because they don’t have the private sector involved enough, they make the wrong picks.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

114 / belief

If I think about the spectacular record of Chinese economic growth, and this is not only in the nation of China, but around the world, my unconfirmed hypothesis is that a lot of it is due to the fact that Chinese ex ante, before they were rich, already had high IQs, whether that’s this tradition of education, the exam system, earlier urbanization in mainland China, whatever.

“If I think about the spectacular record of Chinese economic growth, and this is not only in the nation of China, but around the world, my unconfirmed hypothesis is that a lot of it is due to the fact that Chinese ex ante, before they were rich, already had high IQs, whether that’s this tradition of education, the exam system, earlier urbanization in mainland China, whatever.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

117 / uncertainty

I don’t know. Be a political scientist for a moment. As you well know, it was commonly predicted here in the 1990s, for instance, that China would become democratic just as Taiwan had done.

“I don’t know. Be a political scientist for a moment. As you well know, it was commonly predicted here in the 1990s, for instance, that China would become democratic just as Taiwan had done.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

123 / evaluation

US, I think, in pandemic, everyone did terribly, but US got the vaccines, got them quickly, way ahead of schedule, and did certainly much better than China.

“US, I think, in pandemic, everyone did terribly, but US got the vaccines, got them quickly, way ahead of schedule, and did certainly much better than China.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

124 / belief

If I think about how immigration restrictions are enforced, I sometimes worry that liberal societies ultimately, at some margin, have to use illiberal means to keep out or deport immigrants.

“If I think about how immigration restrictions are enforced, I sometimes worry that liberal societies ultimately, at some margin, have to use illiberal means to keep out or deport immigrants.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

127 / belief

I much prefer the Italian method, however you would describe it, but you’re just trying to get off the plane. I think that de facto ends up being more polite.

“I much prefer the Italian method, however you would describe it, but you’re just trying to get off the plane. I think that de facto ends up being more polite.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

130 / preference

Shouldn’t I have the same concern with tolls that I don’t trust the government in the District and they’re just going to screw me over because I’m from Virginia?

“Shouldn’t I have the same concern with tolls that I don’t trust the government in the District and they’re just going to screw me over because I’m from Virginia?”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

131 / preference

There’s plenty about Boom online and in your interviews, so I’d like to take some different tacks here. This general notion of having things move more quickly, I’m a big fan of that.

“There’s plenty about Boom online and in your interviews, so I’d like to take some different tacks here. This general notion of having things move more quickly, I’m a big fan of that.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

141 / uncertainty

I don’t know Musk, but I’ve thought for a while that his desire to settle Mars is perhaps a uniquely South African impulse, the notion that people need somewhere they can escape to.

“I don’t know Musk, but I’ve thought for a while that his desire to settle Mars is perhaps a uniquely South African impulse, the notion that people need somewhere they can escape to.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

148 / evaluation

Now, as you know, you once had a six-year $17 million offer from the Los Angeles Lakers and you turned it down to stay with the Orlando Magic for what I think was $600,000 for one year and not a guarantee.

“Now, as you know, you once had a six-year $17 million offer from the Los Angeles Lakers and you turned it down to stay with the Orlando Magic for what I think was $600,000 for one year and not a guarantee.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

157 / uncertainty

Maybe they’re afraid if they liberalize, it will collapse into some kind of chaos, or they don’t want to be the next Lebanon or the next Syria. I don’t know.

“Maybe they’re afraid if they liberalize, it will collapse into some kind of chaos, or they don’t want to be the next Lebanon or the next Syria. I don’t know.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

158 / belief

I think we regard the Irish as especially friendly. I’m not sure that’s entirely wrong, to be clear, but we don’t come away necessarily from England saying the same thing.

“I think we regard the Irish as especially friendly. I’m not sure that’s entirely wrong, to be clear, but we don’t come away necessarily from England saying the same thing.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

160 / belief

We agree there’s something, right now, quite screwed up in the American psyche. Maybe sometimes it’s hard to diagnose, but it seems to me often fairly fundamental.

“We agree there’s something, right now, quite screwed up in the American psyche. Maybe sometimes it’s hard to diagnose, but it seems to me often fairly fundamental.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

166 / belief

There’s an attention to quality and detail that is just difficult to believe until you’re there, and to live with that for, say, two weeks, I think you’ll very much enjoy.

“There’s an attention to quality and detail that is just difficult to believe until you’re there, and to live with that for, say, two weeks, I think you’ll very much enjoy.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

170 / belief

Maybe the definition has gray areas, but there’re plenty of cases where you can point to it and say, “Yes, that would be a conspiracy theory.” I would say I believe in a very small number of them.

“Maybe the definition has gray areas, but there’re plenty of cases where you can point to it and say, “Yes, that would be a conspiracy theory.” I would say I believe in a very small number of them.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

174 / belief

The second- and third-order effects of nuclear weapons would mean the US and China and Russia would call up the two parties and read them the riot act. I think we actually would get it under some kind of partial control.

“The second- and third-order effects of nuclear weapons would mean the US and China and Russia would call up the two parties and read them the riot act. I think we actually would get it under some kind of partial control.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

179 / belief

The real sector of the economy, and that’s not FDIC insured, and a lot of that is, in fact, runs-prone, as we learned in 2008, so you’ve just got to be hyper, super nervous.

“The real sector of the economy, and that’s not FDIC insured, and a lot of that is, in fact, runs-prone, as we learned in 2008, so you’ve just got to be hyper, super nervous.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

180 / evaluation

There are slight differences in terms of maturity and liquidity profiles, but it could be like the proverbial swap of two nickels for a dime. Maybe money just doesn’t matter.

“There are slight differences in terms of maturity and liquidity profiles, but it could be like the proverbial swap of two nickels for a dime. Maybe money just doesn’t matter.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

182 / evaluation

By trying to keep banks special, haven’t we created a world where 80 percent of the lending is outside banks, which is much harder for the Fed to deal with, even if you should sometimes step in, and that at the current margin, it’s counterproductive to keep banks legally special because we drive more and more business out of banks.

“By trying to keep banks special, haven’t we created a world where 80 percent of the lending is outside banks, which is much harder for the Fed to deal with, even if you should sometimes step in, and that at the current margin, it’s counterproductive to keep banks legally special because we drive more and more business out of banks.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

186 / uncertainty

Small towns of — I don’t know — 40,000 people with fully walkable city squares, perfect weather, amazing food, and prices were maybe one-third of US prices with a much higher standard of living.

“Small towns of — I don’t know — 40,000 people with fully walkable city squares, perfect weather, amazing food, and prices were maybe one-third of US prices with a much higher standard of living.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

193 / belief

Most of our guests — I think, there’s a way of describing them as the best in the world at something, and if it’s Any, I would describe him as the very best in the world, without doubt, at the hermeneutics of infrastructure within video games.

“Most of our guests — I think, there’s a way of describing them as the best in the world at something, and if it’s Any, I would describe him as the very best in the world, without doubt, at the hermeneutics of infrastructure within video games.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

206 / evaluation

Sure, but if they had higher price inflation, the value of the renminbi in real terms would fall somewhat, at least for a while, and that would be better, which means the current rate is somewhat higher than it ought to be.

“Sure, but if they had higher price inflation, the value of the renminbi in real terms would fall somewhat, at least for a while, and that would be better, which means the current rate is somewhat higher than it ought to be.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

207 / uncertainty

With classical chess, not every game, but most games, I feel I can look at the board and have a decent idea of what’s going on. I might be wrong, but even then, I can figure out ex post why I was wrong.

“With classical chess, not every game, but most games, I feel I can look at the board and have a decent idea of what’s going on. I might be wrong, but even then, I can figure out ex post why I was wrong.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

210 / belief

Kasparov might have been the better player, but just willing to put his entire mental energy into over-the-board analysis, sitting there. I think that’s part of the Fischer legend.

“Kasparov might have been the better player, but just willing to put his entire mental energy into over-the-board analysis, sitting there. I think that’s part of the Fischer legend.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

217 / belief

I think my lead would be, “What’s the New Mary Jane,” that if you had given Paul his way with it over the course of a week, he might have turned it into something great, even though it’s a John song.

“I think my lead would be, “What’s the New Mary Jane,” that if you had given Paul his way with it over the course of a week, he might have turned it into something great, even though it’s a John song.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

218 / belief

Then, I know this is not an album, but YouTube cuts of Wings playing live with Jimmy McCulloch on guitar, I think are generally better than Wings Over America, which is quite good for a live album.

“Then, I know this is not an album, but YouTube cuts of Wings playing live with Jimmy McCulloch on guitar, I think are generally better than Wings Over America, which is quite good for a live album.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

219 / belief

I think of Jagger-Richards as ultimately a business relationship, where they’re quite happy to give up being creative just to make a lot of money, and it becomes not interesting for 50 years.

“I think of Jagger-Richards as ultimately a business relationship, where they’re quite happy to give up being creative just to make a lot of money, and it becomes not interesting for 50 years.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

220 / belief

There’s a lot of songs on it, like “Meat City” or “I Know” that seem forgotten, but they’re very good. I think the production is systematically weak, but the songs are excellent.

“There’s a lot of songs on it, like “Meat City” or “I Know” that seem forgotten, but they’re very good. I think the production is systematically weak, but the songs are excellent.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

224 / evaluation

You can debate who did what on Pussy Cats, but “Many Rivers to Cross” and “Subterranean Homesick Blues” — I think of them as much John songs as Harry songs.

“You can debate who did what on Pussy Cats, but “Many Rivers to Cross” and “Subterranean Homesick Blues” — I think of them as much John songs as Harry songs.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

225 / prediction

I think he should have just taken over, but he does, I think, only in the one song called “All My Loving,” which sounds quite like Paul, and the title itself tells you something.

“I think he should have just taken over, but he does, I think, only in the one song called “All My Loving,” which sounds quite like Paul, and the title itself tells you something.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

226 / preference

She has a background in computer gaming, media, and most importantly for our purposes, I’m a big fan of her 2023 book called Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better.

“She has a background in computer gaming, media, and most importantly for our purposes, I’m a big fan of her 2023 book called Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

230 / belief

If we think about what has worked, it seems to me that outsourcing nonbureaucratic activity to, say, Palantir, Anduril has been very cost-effective, probably militarily effective.

“If we think about what has worked, it seems to me that outsourcing nonbureaucratic activity to, say, Palantir, Anduril has been very cost-effective, probably militarily effective.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

232 / uncertainty

We’re going to see a very radical shaking out that will go fully unadvertised, but at the end of it all, geopolitics will be very different. I don’t know that France can build an AI good enough, actually.

“We’re going to see a very radical shaking out that will go fully unadvertised, but at the end of it all, geopolitics will be very different. I don’t know that France can build an AI good enough, actually.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

234 / evaluation

On net, it passes a cost-benefit test, but the agency internally never seemed willing to actually get rid of the bad stuff, all the contracting arrangements which made American Congress people happy because it was dollars sent to America, but way inflated overhead and fixed costs.

“On net, it passes a cost-benefit test, but the agency internally never seemed willing to actually get rid of the bad stuff, all the contracting arrangements which made American Congress people happy because it was dollars sent to America, but way inflated overhead and fixed costs.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

236 / belief

If we think steady-state — when I look at the private sector, it seems to me large foundations, charitable foundations — they’re not better run than smaller ones, on average.

“If we think steady-state — when I look at the private sector, it seems to me large foundations, charitable foundations — they’re not better run than smaller ones, on average.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

244 / prediction

A simple example: I think median household income for families from India that have come to America — it’s $158,000 a year, which is remarkably high.

“A simple example: I think median household income for families from India that have come to America — it’s $158,000 a year, which is remarkably high.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

245 / evaluation

If we take England — when I read your book, A Farewell to Alms, I took you to be ambiguous, but when I reread that book through the lens of your later papers, it seems to me you’re saying there was an actual genetic change in English society because of who was marrying whom and having kids with whom, and thus, people saved more, became more conscientious, more forward-looking.

“If we take England — when I read your book, A Farewell to Alms, I took you to be ambiguous, but when I reread that book through the lens of your later papers, it seems to me you’re saying there was an actual genetic change in English society because of who was marrying whom and having kids with whom, and thus, people saved more, became more conscientious, more forward-looking.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

251 / uncertainty

We don’t know what’s on them, but it’s certainly more likely than if we were not discovering any such planets, so we should be raising our probability.

“We don’t know what’s on them, but it’s certainly more likely than if we were not discovering any such planets, so we should be raising our probability.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

256 / evaluation

Today, I’m speaking with Joe Boyd. This is immediately prompted by the publication of Joe’s wonderful new book, And the Roots of Rhythm Remain, which is, I would say, the most substantive, complete, thorough, and well-informed book on world music ever written.

“Today, I’m speaking with Joe Boyd. This is immediately prompted by the publication of Joe’s wonderful new book, And the Roots of Rhythm Remain, which is, I would say, the most substantive, complete, thorough, and well-informed book on world music ever written.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

261 / belief

Not at first. But I think I've heard of projects—this is secondhand, I'm not sure how true it is—but interviews are being recorded by companies that do a lot of interviews.

“Not at first. But I think I've heard of projects—this is secondhand, I'm not sure how true it is—but interviews are being recorded by companies that do a lot of interviews.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

272 / prediction

If you put together the two views where in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.

“If you put together the two views where in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

273 / belief

Classical economics figured that out. They were too pessimistic, I would say. But they understood the pessimism intrinsic in diminishing returns in a way that people in the Bay Area do not.

“Classical economics figured that out. They were too pessimistic, I would say. But they understood the pessimism intrinsic in diminishing returns in a way that people in the Bay Area do not.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

276 / preference

Since I'm an input other than the AI, or I hope, that means I rise in marginal value, but I need to do different things. So, I think of myself over time as less a producer of content and more a connector, people person, developing networks in a way where if there somehow had been no transformers and LLMs, I would have stayed a bit more as the producer of content.

“Since I'm an input other than the AI, or I hope, that means I rise in marginal value, but I need to do different things. So, I think of myself over time as less a producer of content and more a connector, people person, developing networks in a way where if there somehow had been no transformers and LLMs, I would have stayed a bit more as the producer of content.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

278 / evaluation

Not that I think there's anything intrinsically bad about it—I'm at a progress studies conference with you. But still, when you think about selection and adverse selection, I think you've got to be very careful and keep on raising the bar there.

“Not that I think there's anything intrinsically bad about it—I'm at a progress studies conference with you. But still, when you think about selection and adverse selection, I think you've got to be very careful and keep on raising the bar there.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

280 / evaluation

They all matter. But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth.

“They all matter. But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

281 / evaluation

One problem is that some parts of your economy grow very rapidly, and then you get a cost disease in the other parts of your economy that, for instance, can't use AI very well.

“One problem is that some parts of your economy grow very rapidly, and then you get a cost disease in the other parts of your economy that, for instance, can't use AI very well.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

282 / evaluation

I think courage is a very scarce input in a lot of decisions. Founders have courage to begin with, but they also need less courage to see through a big change in what the company will do.

“I think courage is a very scarce input in a lot of decisions. Founders have courage to begin with, but they also need less courage to see through a big change in what the company will do.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

284 / recommendation

No one is writing or recording for the AIs very much. But if you believe even a modest version of this progress—and I'm modest in what I believe relative to you and many of you—you should be doing this.

“No one is writing or recording for the AIs very much. But if you believe even a modest version of this progress—and I'm modest in what I believe relative to you and many of you—you should be doing this.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

285 / belief

Let’s say we think of monetary policy as a game between the Fed and Congress, and Congress is always threatening to intervene in the economy, and most of those interventions are ill considered.

“Let’s say we think of monetary policy as a game between the Fed and Congress, and Congress is always threatening to intervene in the economy, and most of those interventions are ill considered.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

287 / belief

I think my view would be, when you get a very bad recession, it’s typically the combination of negative nominal shocks and significant negative real shocks, often to credit markets.

“I think my view would be, when you get a very bad recession, it’s typically the combination of negative nominal shocks and significant negative real shocks, often to credit markets.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

290 / belief

Now, for your books on the Great Depression, you once said that you read the New York Times for many years in a row, for I think the 1920s and the 1930s.

“Now, for your books on the Great Depression, you once said that you read the New York Times for many years in a row, for I think the 1920s and the 1930s.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

293 / belief

Someone said on Twitter recently that — it was Joe Lonsdale — “There’s no limit to what you can achieve if you’re willing not to get much credit for it.” I think that should be our attitude.

“Someone said on Twitter recently that — it was Joe Lonsdale — “There’s no limit to what you can achieve if you’re willing not to get much credit for it.” I think that should be our attitude.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

296 / belief

We’ve made bets on them. But if you just ask me what I think, I do think there’s an upper limit that is more or less at where the oldest living people live to today, which is about 110 perhaps.

“We’ve made bets on them. But if you just ask me what I think, I do think there’s an upper limit that is more or less at where the oldest living people live to today, which is about 110 perhaps.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

305 / preference

If you send me one that is serious in taking all the costs into account, including the cost of the land, I will read it and indeed review it. But some kind of partial, “Oh, here’s a few people who are better off because we put bike lanes in,” I’ll look at it, but no, I’m not going to review that.

“If you send me one that is serious in taking all the costs into account, including the cost of the land, I will read it and indeed review it. But some kind of partial, “Oh, here’s a few people who are better off because we put bike lanes in,” I’ll look at it, but no, I’m not going to review that.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

306 / evaluation

He does not have enough money to complete his house, which is a big problem for him. They’re back on their feet, but it’s very tough, and tourist demand for the business he wanted to create has not materialized because of the war.

“He does not have enough money to complete his house, which is a big problem for him. They’re back on their feet, but it’s very tough, and tourist demand for the business he wanted to create has not materialized because of the war.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

309 / prediction

The predictions I made in my book Average Is Over, that AI would be the next big thing and it would all be about how well can you work with AI — that’s done very, very well.

“The predictions I made in my book Average Is Over, that AI would be the next big thing and it would all be about how well can you work with AI — that’s done very, very well.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

313 / belief

The machine, for him, eventually becomes all-powerful. It becomes a kind of god and can create humans in its image that are in a way superior, and I think he’s terrified by this.

“The machine, for him, eventually becomes all-powerful. It becomes a kind of god and can create humans in its image that are in a way superior, and I think he’s terrified by this.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

318 / belief

There’s Dante and Swift and Homer and Huck Finn, which are all about journeys, and he’s taking us on our journey through this war, through this battle, through Soviet and Nazi life. I think that’s another way he thought of the book.

“There’s Dante and Swift and Homer and Huck Finn, which are all about journeys, and he’s taking us on our journey through this war, through this battle, through Soviet and Nazi life. I think that’s another way he thought of the book.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

319 / belief

The saner thing to do — and you see this with many people from the progressive left as well — is just to become more moderate, more uncertain, to have better epistemic practices and take a broader swathe of history more seriously, and I think Grossman is doing that.

“The saner thing to do — and you see this with many people from the progressive left as well — is just to become more moderate, more uncertain, to have better epistemic practices and take a broader swathe of history more seriously, and I think Grossman is doing that.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

322 / evaluation

In Life and Fate, Hitler and Stalin make actual appearances in the novel, which I find shocking when I read it, like, here they are on the page, and it’s actually somewhat plausible.

“In Life and Fate, Hitler and Stalin make actual appearances in the novel, which I find shocking when I read it, like, here they are on the page, and it’s actually somewhat plausible.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

324 / prediction

Viktor, yes, you could say he’s the hero or, certainly, center of the novel, but what ends up happening is, Viktor — this is not too much of a spoiler because we know what did happen — ends up helping Stalin build nuclear weapons, and he can’t be too thrilled by that.

“Viktor, yes, you could say he’s the hero or, certainly, center of the novel, but what ends up happening is, Viktor — this is not too much of a spoiler because we know what did happen — ends up helping Stalin build nuclear weapons, and he can’t be too thrilled by that.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

325 / belief

Sometimes I think that when the present and future are changing most rapidly, that’s when we need to write about the past, that it’s easier to speculate about the future when nothing’s happening.

“Sometimes I think that when the present and future are changing most rapidly, that’s when we need to write about the past, that it’s easier to speculate about the future when nothing’s happening.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

326 / uncertainty

I don’t know Russia well, but some part of me feels that the Soviet Union and America had more in common in the 1930s than they ever had before or have had since.

“I don’t know Russia well, but some part of me feels that the Soviet Union and America had more in common in the 1930s than they ever had before or have had since.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

327 / recommendation

Do you think there were other American fiction writers who’ve succeeded in capturing something of the Soviet experience? I think of Norman Mailer’s Oswald book, which I think is quite good.

“Do you think there were other American fiction writers who’ve succeeded in capturing something of the Soviet experience? I think of Norman Mailer’s Oswald book, which I think is quite good.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

328 / prediction

American leaders, in a sense, are too asleep to even see that, so we just let things happen, and that’s for the better in the long run. But they throw their CEOs in jail, and they’re afraid it will take away power of the CCP, and they’re just not going to catch us.

“American leaders, in a sense, are too asleep to even see that, so we just let things happen, and that’s for the better in the long run. But they throw their CEOs in jail, and they’re afraid it will take away power of the CCP, and they’re just not going to catch us.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

336 / belief

I think we’re trending toward greater passivity, where all kinds of outrageous things happen and no one protests, which to someone my age is quite extreme and unusual.

“I think we’re trending toward greater passivity, where all kinds of outrageous things happen and no one protests, which to someone my age is quite extreme and unusual.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

337 / belief

I think of celebrity as having peaked maybe in the 1980s. You have Eddie Murphy, you have Schwarzenegger, you have Madonna, Michael Jackson, and it was a thing.

“I think of celebrity as having peaked maybe in the 1980s. You have Eddie Murphy, you have Schwarzenegger, you have Madonna, Michael Jackson, and it was a thing.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

343 / belief

Then, I think the US having lost relative status in the world — people may not be directly aware of it, but at some level, they sense it, and that makes people more negative.

“Then, I think the US having lost relative status in the world — people may not be directly aware of it, but at some level, they sense it, and that makes people more negative.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

350 / belief

I think the overall composition of the federal budget — it’s too much to old people and not enough to young people, and that is because old people vote more.

“I think the overall composition of the federal budget — it’s too much to old people and not enough to young people, and that is because old people vote more.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

352 / belief

From the point of view of this New Jersey boy, she has come out of nowhere from western Kentucky and is all of a sudden one of the best and also most popular discussers of economics and economic reasoning and economic thinking. This, in my view, is fantastic.

“From the point of view of this New Jersey boy, she has come out of nowhere from western Kentucky and is all of a sudden one of the best and also most popular discussers of economics and economic reasoning and economic thinking. This, in my view, is fantastic.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

355 / belief

We’ve had over 200 guests on Conversations with Tyler, and I think three of them, so far, have shown they are able to answer any question I might plausibly throw their way.

“We’ve had over 200 guests on Conversations with Tyler, and I think three of them, so far, have shown they are able to answer any question I might plausibly throw their way.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

357 / belief

Maybe it’s not super, but let’s say until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock’s superforecasters. I would say that’s three to four years away, would be my guess.

“Maybe it’s not super, but let’s say until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock’s superforecasters. I would say that’s three to four years away, would be my guess.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

360 / belief

I think we can make limited claims of potential gains from trade with humans and dogs a lot; humans and pigs quite a bit less, but still somewhat; and that ultimately, maybe we can apply some semi-Christian-like idea of mercy to how we should treat animals, and that we only have partial comparisons.

“I think we can make limited claims of potential gains from trade with humans and dogs a lot; humans and pigs quite a bit less, but still somewhat; and that ultimately, maybe we can apply some semi-Christian-like idea of mercy to how we should treat animals, and that we only have partial comparisons.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

362 / belief

I think you have a disgust reaction. That’s fine. It sounds to me like an argument that it’s imprudent, which can slide into morally wrong, but I still think there’s something out of sync between the strength of our disgust reaction and the degree of moral wrongness it has.

“I think you have a disgust reaction. That’s fine. It sounds to me like an argument that it’s imprudent, which can slide into morally wrong, but I still think there’s something out of sync between the strength of our disgust reaction and the degree of moral wrongness it has.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

369 / belief

I agree with your nostalgia point, but as I’m sure you know, there are so many very good startups from Argentina, though they may leave the country, go to Brazil, go to Mexico.

“I agree with your nostalgia point, but as I’m sure you know, there are so many very good startups from Argentina, though they may leave the country, go to Brazil, go to Mexico.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

373 / belief

One thing that’s striking to me about the arc of your career, if I think geographically where you’ve been — you start in Gary, Indiana.

“One thing that’s striking to me about the arc of your career, if I think geographically where you’ve been — you start in Gary, Indiana.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

374 / uncertainty

We’re recording a day after the Iranian helicopter crash, and we don’t know what happened. It might have just been a helicopter crash because of bad weather and fog, but surely you have clients calling you, messaging you, pinging you, wanting to know what’s going on.

“We’re recording a day after the Iranian helicopter crash, and we don’t know what happened. It might have just been a helicopter crash because of bad weather and fog, but surely you have clients calling you, messaging you, pinging you, wanting to know what’s going on.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

375 / belief

I think my p has gone up a modest amount over time. When I was, say, in my young 20s, I thought physics was going to make more progress than it has at fundamental theoretical levels.

“I think my p has gone up a modest amount over time. When I was, say, in my young 20s, I thought physics was going to make more progress than it has at fundamental theoretical levels.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

376 / belief

If quantum computing happens as you’re predicting it will, that, I think, would also make matrix algebra rise in status, like, “Oh, this is a really important tool.

“If quantum computing happens as you’re predicting it will, that, I think, would also make matrix algebra rise in status, like, “Oh, this is a really important tool.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

379 / evaluation

I think that’s much stronger than the economists believe — your overall view of the world and what’s important — but I don’t think it’s nearly as strong as Stapledon believed.

“I think that’s much stronger than the economists believe — your overall view of the world and what’s important — but I don’t think it’s nearly as strong as Stapledon believed.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

381 / preference

I like Ruisdael, I like Van Goyen, but if I were to see 50–60 together, I would start walking rapidly through the rooms, I suspect, and nodding my head and saying, “They’re all nice.

“I like Ruisdael, I like Van Goyen, but if I were to see 50–60 together, I would start walking rapidly through the rooms, I suspect, and nodding my head and saying, “They’re all nice.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

385 / belief

I once did a podcast with her, and I think of all the guests we’ve ever had, she produced the greatest number of words and greatest number of words per minute.

“I once did a podcast with her, and I think of all the guests we’ve ever had, she produced the greatest number of words and greatest number of words per minute.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

389 / belief

I think I would know more about Ireland. It would be different. I don’t think I would consciously be biased, but I don’t think I could quite do it neutrally either.

“I think I would know more about Ireland. It would be different. I don’t think I would consciously be biased, but I don’t think I could quite do it neutrally either.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

392 / belief

Now, the title of this conversation is “Political Theology.” That was a phrase, I think, first used by the Russian anarchist Bakunin to mock the Italian nationalist Mazzini.

“Now, the title of this conversation is “Political Theology.” That was a phrase, I think, first used by the Russian anarchist Bakunin to mock the Italian nationalist Mazzini.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

394 / observation

You want to please your customers. But the point is, let’s say Meta has a 1 percent failure rate in trying to do this, which would be an amazingly good performance.

“You want to please your customers. But the point is, let’s say Meta has a 1 percent failure rate in trying to do this, which would be an amazingly good performance.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

398 / recommendation

I think that you can’t just be a programmer alone, that the nature of companies now is not that you do it in your dorm room at Harvard, but it requires synthetic abilities.

“I think that you can’t just be a programmer alone, that the nature of companies now is not that you do it in your dorm room at Harvard, but it requires synthetic abilities.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

400 / evaluation

Now, this was never you saying that, but when that came out, no one laughed. Today, that would be unthinkable because our politics is somehow crazier.

“Now, this was never you saying that, but when that came out, no one laughed. Today, that would be unthinkable because our politics is somehow crazier.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

401 / belief

Some thinkers, I think especially on the conservative right, have argued that as America becomes more pluralistic — ethnically and religiously pluralistic — that that, on net, marginalizes the influence of religion.

“Some thinkers, I think especially on the conservative right, have argued that as America becomes more pluralistic — ethnically and religiously pluralistic — that that, on net, marginalizes the influence of religion.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

403 / evaluation

As I understand it, which is very imperfectly, the hyper-Calvinists take determinism more seriously. And they think, for instance, that trying to convert people or preach to them is futile, and we shouldn’t even bother doing it because God has settled everything.

“As I understand it, which is very imperfectly, the hyper-Calvinists take determinism more seriously. And they think, for instance, that trying to convert people or preach to them is futile, and we shouldn’t even bother doing it because God has settled everything.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

407 / belief

Here’s a quotation from you, I think, if you could explain it to us. “Our business, like the real estate business and some other business, is hours of boredom followed by moments of terror.

“Here’s a quotation from you, I think, if you could explain it to us. “Our business, like the real estate business and some other business, is hours of boredom followed by moments of terror.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

410 / belief

Now, I understand that in the 1960s, the survival rate for panda babies was pretty low. I think you mentioned once 30 percent, and right now, it’s about 90 percent.

“Now, I understand that in the 1960s, the survival rate for panda babies was pretty low. I think you mentioned once 30 percent, and right now, it’s about 90 percent.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

412 / belief

Maybe they overly value autonomy when they ought to just get a job with a relatively stable company. So there, part of the thesis is correct, and I doubt if there’s really big social returns to whatever those people do, even if they could make a go of it.

“Maybe they overly value autonomy when they ought to just get a job with a relatively stable company. So there, part of the thesis is correct, and I doubt if there’s really big social returns to whatever those people do, even if they could make a go of it.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

414 / uncertainty

For some reason, currency holdings aren’t large enough, there’s some kind of financial repression, I don’t know, but it’s very hard to explain why some of these countries, but not others, go crazy with the printing press.

“For some reason, currency holdings aren’t large enough, there’s some kind of financial repression, I don’t know, but it’s very hard to explain why some of these countries, but not others, go crazy with the printing press.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

416 / belief

There’s Mill’s own upbringing, which was quite strict and by current standards, oppressive, but apparently extremely effective in making Mill smart. So I think Mill very much thought that kids should be induced to learn the classics, but he also stressed they needed free play of the imagination in a way that he drew from German and also British Romanticism, and he wanted some kind of synthesis of the two.

“There’s Mill’s own upbringing, which was quite strict and by current standards, oppressive, but apparently extremely effective in making Mill smart. So I think Mill very much thought that kids should be induced to learn the classics, but he also stressed they needed free play of the imagination in a way that he drew from German and also British Romanticism, and he wanted some kind of synthesis of the two.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

424 / belief

Most of it’s quite interesting, but his ability to see things from multiple perspectives, I think, was in part stemming from the fact that he wrote a lot about many different topics, like French history, ancient Greece.

“Most of it’s quite interesting, but his ability to see things from multiple perspectives, I think, was in part stemming from the fact that he wrote a lot about many different topics, like French history, ancient Greece.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

425 / belief

I’m not sure what those numbers going up mean, what a GPT seven would look like, or how much smarter it could get. I think people make too many assumptions there.

“I’m not sure what those numbers going up mean, what a GPT seven would look like, or how much smarter it could get. I think people make too many assumptions there.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

426 / belief

There was some collusion, not enough bidding, but it was mostly competing for attention. So I think the real risk protection agencies’ side of network-based collusion is through banking systems, where you have clearinghouses and payments networks, and to be part of it, the clearinghouse, in the absence of legal constraint, can indeed help everyone collude.

“There was some collusion, not enough bidding, but it was mostly competing for attention. So I think the real risk protection agencies’ side of network-based collusion is through banking systems, where you have clearinghouses and payments networks, and to be part of it, the clearinghouse, in the absence of legal constraint, can indeed help everyone collude.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

429 / belief

I just think the risk, not that everyone dies, I think that’s quite low, but that we retreat to some kind of pretty chaotic form of like, medieval Balkans existence with a much lower population.

“I just think the risk, not that everyone dies, I think that’s quite low, but that we retreat to some kind of pretty chaotic form of like, medieval Balkans existence with a much lower population.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

433 / belief

Regarding the internet writing mode of thinking, I would like to see more economists and research scientists raised on it, but the number may be higher than we think.

“Regarding the internet writing mode of thinking, I would like to see more economists and research scientists raised on it, but the number may be higher than we think.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

434 / belief

My former colleague Gordon Tullock wrote a very interesting book on the economics of ant societies and animal societies and very often they obey human-like principles, or more accurately, humans obey non-human, animal-like principles. So I suspect it’s fairly universal and depends less on quote unquote human nature than we sometimes like to suggest.

“My former colleague Gordon Tullock wrote a very interesting book on the economics of ant societies and animal societies and very often they obey human-like principles, or more accurately, humans obey non-human, animal-like principles. So I suspect it’s fairly universal and depends less on quote unquote human nature than we sometimes like to suggest.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

436 / belief

I’m not saying the humanitarian outcome is a good one, but in terms of the global economy, I think markets are thinking rationally about it, though the rational forecast, of course, is often wrong.

“I’m not saying the humanitarian outcome is a good one, but in terms of the global economy, I think markets are thinking rationally about it, though the rational forecast, of course, is often wrong.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

437 / evaluation

And the Hayekian argument doesn’t always work, because the signal you have is of the current price. And that’s not telling you how high are the inframarginal values if you get, say, cut off from being able to buy vaccines from India, because you’re at the bottom of the queue.

“And the Hayekian argument doesn’t always work, because the signal you have is of the current price. And that’s not telling you how high are the inframarginal values if you get, say, cut off from being able to buy vaccines from India, because you’re at the bottom of the queue.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

438 / prediction

So we need to restructure our whole discourse about tacit knowledge in some new, different way. But I agree, these networks of AIs, even before, like GPT eleven, they’re going to be super productive, but they’re still going to face bottlenecks.

“So we need to restructure our whole discourse about tacit knowledge in some new, different way. But I agree, these networks of AIs, even before, like GPT eleven, they’re going to be super productive, but they’re still going to face bottlenecks.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

441 / evaluation

There’s a lot of dimensions to prices other than just, oh, this newspaper costs $4, the terms on which it’s advertised. So markets work so well because people are solving this complex multidimensional problem and the price really is not a sufficient statistic the way it is in an Arrow-Debreu.

“There’s a lot of dimensions to prices other than just, oh, this newspaper costs $4, the terms on which it’s advertised. So markets work so well because people are solving this complex multidimensional problem and the price really is not a sufficient statistic the way it is in an Arrow-Debreu.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

443 / evaluation

I think just being good-natured helps, and helping a lot of people helps. And Turing, I’m a huge fan of, wrote a paper on him with Michelle Dawson, but it’s not obvious that he was a very good diplomat, and it seems he very likely was a pretty terrible diplomat, and that might be feeding into this difference.

“I think just being good-natured helps, and helping a lot of people helps. And Turing, I’m a huge fan of, wrote a paper on him with Michelle Dawson, but it’s not obvious that he was a very good diplomat, and it seems he very likely was a pretty terrible diplomat, and that might be feeding into this difference.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

444 / prediction

The challenge might be competing against AI, and it doesn’t have to be that AI does it better than you or I do, though it might, but simply that people prefer to read what the AIs generate for ten or 20 years. And it’s harder to get an audience because playing with the AIs is a lot of fun.

“The challenge might be competing against AI, and it doesn’t have to be that AI does it better than you or I do, though it might, but simply that people prefer to read what the AIs generate for ten or 20 years. And it’s harder to get an audience because playing with the AIs is a lot of fun.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

449 / belief

I have relatively few complaints about it, but I also am in a different position than you are and have another income I can fall back upon. And I think whether you do it as a man or do it as a woman, you’re also treated differently, especially by your readers.

“I have relatively few complaints about it, but I also am in a different position than you are and have another income I can fall back upon. And I think whether you do it as a man or do it as a woman, you’re also treated differently, especially by your readers.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

453 / evaluation

I think the hardness of the science fiction in volumes two and three is immediately recognizable, even to people who are not science fiction fans but have seen a lot of cinema.

“I think the hardness of the science fiction in volumes two and three is immediately recognizable, even to people who are not science fiction fans but have seen a lot of cinema.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

462 / belief

I think in less than two years. Now, whether that’s a product on the market that I can subscribe to, I’m less sure of, but technologically speaking, it’s probably possible right now.

“I think in less than two years. Now, whether that’s a product on the market that I can subscribe to, I’m less sure of, but technologically speaking, it’s probably possible right now.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

463 / commitment

Open source I’ve played around with, but I’m not using it yet on a regular basis, but I will be once there’s open service fine-tuned on what I want it to have read.

“Open source I’ve played around with, but I’m not using it yet on a regular basis, but I will be once there’s open service fine-tuned on what I want it to have read.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

466 / belief

The Days of Fire — I am tired of all that stuff, so people don’t talk about that time so much anymore, which is interesting. But overall, I think my 2013 recommendations might have been my best year ever of recommendations because so many of them turned out so well.

“The Days of Fire — I am tired of all that stuff, so people don’t talk about that time so much anymore, which is interesting. But overall, I think my 2013 recommendations might have been my best year ever of recommendations because so many of them turned out so well.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

468 / preference

Yes. Ideally, a podcast, I think, should be once every day. That’s not possible for a number of reasons, but there is something socially optimal about that: that you wake up in the morning and you know there’s a podcast for you, and you only listen, say, to the 11 a year you care about the most, but that will be a different 11 for every person.

“Yes. Ideally, a podcast, I think, should be once every day. That’s not possible for a number of reasons, but there is something socially optimal about that: that you wake up in the morning and you know there’s a podcast for you, and you only listen, say, to the 11 a year you care about the most, but that will be a different 11 for every person.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

469 / prediction

I think the price of energy is going to go up a lot because people will need to compute, and they’ll be building all these new projects, and that’s a good thing.

“I think the price of energy is going to go up a lot because people will need to compute, and they’ll be building all these new projects, and that’s a good thing.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

472 / recommendation

You can access it through GPT-4 or just read it like a regular book, or interrogate a GPT-4-based app that you helped build and oversaw the construction of, and ask it to summarize chapters, ask it for more background, ask it what mistakes it thinks I made.

“You can access it through GPT-4 or just read it like a regular book, or interrogate a GPT-4-based app that you helped build and oversaw the construction of, and ask it to summarize chapters, ask it for more background, ask it what mistakes it thinks I made.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

474 / prediction

So, as Chinese became the №1 group coming to the United States, we started getting a lot of regional cuisines. But also look for places that are not too easy to get to, not frequented by too many tourists, and have grumpy diners and abusive staff because there’s a selection effect.

“So, as Chinese became the №1 group coming to the United States, we started getting a lot of regional cuisines. But also look for places that are not too easy to get to, not frequented by too many tourists, and have grumpy diners and abusive staff because there’s a selection effect.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

475 / belief

Today I’m chatting with John Gray, who is one of the most important and influential thinkers, not just of one generation, but I think you could say of two generations.

“Today I’m chatting with John Gray, who is one of the most important and influential thinkers, not just of one generation, but I think you could say of two generations.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

479 / belief

“Study the past” is another career lesson from Dylan, I think, and just keep on going, be willing to reinvent yourself, and choose your audiences wisely, the ones you care about.

““Study the past” is another career lesson from Dylan, I think, and just keep on going, be willing to reinvent yourself, and choose your audiences wisely, the ones you care about.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

486 / evaluation

You need more and more scale. It’s a chicken-and-egg problem in getting affordable housing in sub-Saharan Africa because no one has cracked that scale problem to what we’re doing here.

“You need more and more scale. It’s a chicken-and-egg problem in getting affordable housing in sub-Saharan Africa because no one has cracked that scale problem to what we’re doing here.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

488 / belief

Some of the cybernetics tales, they seem weirdly close to the current state of LLMs. And I think I’ve seen this mentioned once, but it’s not generally known: the idea that you use them to talk to, that they’re weird, they might be somewhat mystical, they serve as therapists or oracles — that’s very much in Lem, quite early.

“Some of the cybernetics tales, they seem weirdly close to the current state of LLMs. And I think I’ve seen this mentioned once, but it’s not generally known: the idea that you use them to talk to, that they’re weird, they might be somewhat mystical, they serve as therapists or oracles — that’s very much in Lem, quite early.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

490 / belief

I think of the Russian women I know: they would, say, be in their 50s largely. It’s surprising to me — or was originally — how many of them had their kids quite young.

“I think of the Russian women I know: they would, say, be in their 50s largely. It’s surprising to me — or was originally — how many of them had their kids quite young.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

492 / belief

Understanding yourself is a kind of answer, and if you just think, “I want the life where I have all these open questions that bug me,” I would say go travel a lot.

“Understanding yourself is a kind of answer, and if you just think, “I want the life where I have all these open questions that bug me,” I would say go travel a lot.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

495 / belief

I think part of Le Guin’s message, which was very 1974 — maybe more true than people realize today — is you only get a shot at the good parts of the non-communal society by tolerating this pretty high risk of war, that it keeps things dynamic in some way.

“I think part of Le Guin’s message, which was very 1974 — maybe more true than people realize today — is you only get a shot at the good parts of the non-communal society by tolerating this pretty high risk of war, that it keeps things dynamic in some way.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

496 / belief

I think there’s a lack of cultural self-confidence that would be needed to do that, and in that respect, our world probably, or the Western world, is worse.

“I think there’s a lack of cultural self-confidence that would be needed to do that, and in that respect, our world probably, or the Western world, is worse.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

499 / prediction

I think one of the things Swift is showing us with these very odd societies — their wars, to us, make no sense — he’s saying the wars of his own time, from any future vantage point, won’t make any more sense either.

“I think one of the things Swift is showing us with these very odd societies — their wars, to us, make no sense — he’s saying the wars of his own time, from any future vantage point, won’t make any more sense either.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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