Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedTyler Cowen: prediction
5 Nov 2025 Conversations with Tyler Sam Altman on Trust, Persuasion, and the Future of Intelligence - Live at the Progress Conference
“I think you’ll have billion-dollar companies run by two or three people with AIs, I don’t know, two and a half years.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 5 Nov 2025
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Let’s say if I can pretend to be a politician, which is not my natural strength, an AI can do it, too. Let’s say I stay involved for the public-facing whatever. Just actually making the good decisions, figuring out what to do. I think you’ll have billion-dollar companies run by two or three people with AIs, I don’t know, two and a half years. I used to think one year, but maybe I’ve put it off a bit. I’m not more pessimistic about the AI. Maybe I’m more pessimistic about the humans. What’s your forecast? I agree on all of those counts. I think the AI can do it sooner than that. I think this is a good thing for society and a good thing for the future, not a bad one. People have a great deal higher trust in other people over an AI, even if they shouldn’t, even if that’s irrational. The AI doctor is better, but you want the human, whatever. I think it may take much longer for society to get really comfortable with this and for people in the organization to get really comfortable with this. On the actual decision-making for most things, maybe the AI is pretty good pretty soon.…
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