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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

George Selgin on the New Deal, Regime Uncertainty, and What Really Ended the Great Depression

15 Oct 2025 16 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

George SelginTyler Cowen

Claim mix

belief 4evaluation 4recommendation 3prediction 2uncertainty 1commitment 1preference 1

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Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

16 published records

01 / belief

The problem with the Austrians, I think — and here, it’s most clear in Hayek’s case — is that their policy recommendations were not necessarily consistent with their theories.

“The problem with the Austrians, I think — and here, it’s most clear in Hayek’s case — is that their policy recommendations were not necessarily consistent with their theories.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

02 / uncertainty

Given that position, I don’t know whether I should say independence is overrated or underrated because there’s a sense in which it’s overrated because there isn’t that much of it, but it’s underrated to the extent that people say, “Well, let’s not worry about losing it all.

“Given that position, I don’t know whether I should say independence is overrated or underrated because there’s a sense in which it’s overrated because there isn’t that much of it, but it’s underrated to the extent that people say, “Well, let’s not worry about losing it all.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / belief

I think that the question one really wants to ask is, what would a banking system look like if you let banks be free to consolidate, branch, and group or whatever on their own, but you also had no guarantees, no too-big-to-fail — which of course drives a lot of consolidation itself and no absolute entry restrictions, freedom of entry.

“I think that the question one really wants to ask is, what would a banking system look like if you let banks be free to consolidate, branch, and group or whatever on their own, but you also had no guarantees, no too-big-to-fail — which of course drives a lot of consolidation itself and no absolute entry restrictions, freedom of entry.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / belief

I think that the recapitalization program was one of the good things, one of the only things that the RFC did that helped end the Great Depression, by stabilizing the banking system and allowing more banks to reopen.

“I think that the recapitalization program was one of the good things, one of the only things that the RFC did that helped end the Great Depression, by stabilizing the banking system and allowing more banks to reopen.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

07 / evaluation

I think that was a very bad way to respond to the banking crisis, which, if you looked at what was really behind it, you find that bad regulations, rather than fractional reserve banking, per se, were the problems.

“I think that was a very bad way to respond to the banking crisis, which, if you looked at what was really behind it, you find that bad regulations, rather than fractional reserve banking, per se, were the problems.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / evaluation

Because the theory behind it, first of all, wasn’t very sound. The idea was that we’re going to tax food processors and do that to raise the income of farmers, really of farm owners, and that the farm owners will have a higher — I’m now using language that wasn’t current at the time — will have a higher marginal propensity to consume than the people being taxed, and therefore, there’ll be more spending overall.

“Because the theory behind it, first of all, wasn’t very sound. The idea was that we’re going to tax food processors and do that to raise the income of farmers, really of farm owners, and that the farm owners will have a higher — I’m now using language that wasn’t current at the time — will have a higher marginal propensity to consume than the people being taxed, and therefore, there’ll be more spending overall.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / recommendation

I think that what should have happened was immediate devaluation of the dollar. It was clear by the time Roosevelt took office, the gold standard, as it had been, had to be at least suspended because the New York banks had run out of gold essentially.

“I think that what should have happened was immediate devaluation of the dollar. It was clear by the time Roosevelt took office, the gold standard, as it had been, had to be at least suspended because the New York banks had run out of gold essentially.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / preference

My favorite policy or my ideal about prices falling as unit costs of production of goods falls is a long-run ideal in that I don’t think you can just jump into that policy because people now have expectations about trends and prices and costs.

“My favorite policy or my ideal about prices falling as unit costs of production of goods falls is a long-run ideal in that I don’t think you can just jump into that policy because people now have expectations about trends and prices and costs.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / prediction

If Roosevelt had spent a lot more — whatever you think about fiscal stimulus — if he’d done that instead of the things he and the other New Dealers actually did, there’s no doubt in my mind that it would have been better, because pouring more money into the economy may have adverse consequences, but nothing like some of the scary reforms, highly regressive taxes, price controls, and that sort of thing had.

“If Roosevelt had spent a lot more — whatever you think about fiscal stimulus — if he’d done that instead of the things he and the other New Dealers actually did, there’s no doubt in my mind that it would have been better, because pouring more money into the economy may have adverse consequences, but nothing like some of the scary reforms, highly regressive taxes, price controls, and that sort of thing had.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / recommendation

If we can envision, just for the sake of argument, a stablecoin industry that gives us all everything we want that we used to get from banks, so we do dispense with banks altogether.

“If we can envision, just for the sake of argument, a stablecoin industry that gives us all everything we want that we used to get from banks, so we do dispense with banks altogether.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / evaluation

If it didn’t always look great, as was the case in the United States, for example — where we had crises — if you do the research, you’ll see that that was because of the specific dumb regulations in those countries that had a lot of problems, mainly the US and England.

“If it didn’t always look great, as was the case in the United States, for example — where we had crises — if you do the research, you’ll see that that was because of the specific dumb regulations in those countries that had a lot of problems, mainly the US and England.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

16 / evaluation

What has to be understood, though, is that if you have free banking with a fiat monetary standard, then you have solved problems because I think the freedom of the banks creates a lot of greater robustness in the banking system and less risk of financial crises.

“What has to be understood, though, is that if you have free banking with a fiat monetary standard, then you have solved problems because I think the freedom of the banks creates a lot of greater robustness in the banking system and less risk of financial crises.”
Speaker
George Selgin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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