book / likes
A History of British Art
“I’m a big fan of your book, A History of British Art. In that, you insightfully remark that a lot of English art earlier on was harder, more angular, and less obsessed with perspective.”
Public evidence record
Tyler Cowen
Published podcast speaker
- Claims
- 500
- Episodes
- 97
- Shows
- 2
- Named items
- 57
Books, apps, and tools
The evidenced stack.
book / likes
Two Paths to Prosperity
“Again, I’m a big fan of your new book with Greif and Tabellini, Two Paths to Prosperity, comparing Europe and China.”
other / likes
Bergman films
“What are your favorite movies and why? I love Bergman films, Smiles of a Summer Night.”
other / likes
Smiles of a Summer Night
“I like Smiles of a Summer Night very much, the Mozartian feel, the Shakespeare connection.”
other / likes
Silent All These Years
“I like Silent All These Years by Tori Amos, especially the live version.”
book / recommends
Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity
“He has a new book out, Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity, which I recommend very highly.”
app / uses
GPT-5 Pro
“If I use GPT-5 Pro edition, it will outperform a very good human lawyer for a typical query.”
app / likes
Pulse
“Now, I love Pulse. Why don’t I hear more about Pulse, or do you think there is a lot of chatter out there?”
book / uses
A Farewell to Alms
“If we take England — when I read your book, A Farewell to Alms, I took you to be ambiguous, but when I reread that book through the lens of your later papers, it seems to me you’re saying there was an actual genetic change in English society because of who was marrying whom and having kids with whom, and thus, people saved more, became more conscientious, more forward-looking.”
book / built
Goat: Who's the Greatest Economist of All Time?
“The last book I wrote is called Goat: Who's the Greatest Economist of All Time?”
person / likes
Christopher Kirchhoff
“I like the Christopher Kirchhoff episode and how he never said the word “um.” You might edit out an “um” here and there.”
other / likes
Brazil
“I love Brazil, it’s one of my favorite countries, but I always worry about where I should and should not go there.”
Claim ledger
What Tyler said.
26 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
I think much of Craigslist is saying you can trust other people if the incentives and institutions are correct.
“I think much of Craigslist is saying you can trust other people if the incentives and institutions are correct.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
02 / prediction
I think two things I would have done is, have something like deposit insurance to begin with, and then do what Sweden did and get off the gold standard as quickly as is necessary, and then, I think, it would have been quite a mild downturn had one done those two things.
“I think two things I would have done is, have something like deposit insurance to begin with, and then do what Sweden did and get off the gold standard as quickly as is necessary, and then, I think, it would have been quite a mild downturn had one done those two things.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
03 / prediction
One view is no one respects the experts because the machines are better, but I think an alternative possibility is the machine, by not being tied to a personality, is less disliked.
“One view is no one respects the experts because the machines are better, but I think an alternative possibility is the machine, by not being tied to a personality, is less disliked.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
04 / prediction
I think if I wrote a detailed prompt for GPT, in fact, it could. I just haven’t gotten to that yet.
“I think if I wrote a detailed prompt for GPT, in fact, it could. I just haven’t gotten to that yet.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
05 / prediction
Then they say it’s all protected by the First Amendment because it’s AI and humans, and de facto, you end up with complete AI First Amendment protection.
“Then they say it’s all protected by the First Amendment because it’s AI and humans, and de facto, you end up with complete AI First Amendment protection.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
06 / prediction
I think you’ll have billion-dollar companies run by two or three people with AIs, I don’t know, two and a half years.
“I think you’ll have billion-dollar companies run by two or three people with AIs, I don’t know, two and a half years.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Episode
- Sam Altman on Trust, Persuasion, and the Future of Intelligence - Live at the Progress Conference
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
07 / prediction
The future for universalism, to me, looks quite grim. I think we will have a steady stream of low-level conflict across major powers.
“The future for universalism, to me, looks quite grim. I think we will have a steady stream of low-level conflict across major powers.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
08 / prediction
I would say a 60 percent to 70 percent chance that we retaliate, not that we do nothing.
“I would say a 60 percent to 70 percent chance that we retaliate, not that we do nothing.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
09 / prediction
I think he should have just taken over, but he does, I think, only in the one song called “All My Loving,” which sounds quite like Paul, and the title itself tells you something.
“I think he should have just taken over, but he does, I think, only in the one song called “All My Loving,” which sounds quite like Paul, and the title itself tells you something.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
10 / prediction
A simple example: I think median household income for families from India that have come to America — it’s $158,000 a year, which is remarkably high.
“A simple example: I think median household income for families from India that have come to America — it’s $158,000 a year, which is remarkably high.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
11 / prediction
If you put together the two views where in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.
“If you put together the two views where in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
12 / prediction
I think in a lot of countries, science policy will be much better because of progress studies.
“I think in a lot of countries, science policy will be much better because of progress studies.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
13 / prediction
To get to the point where large numbers of people who buckle their seat belts live well into their 90s, I expect we’re on the way to doing that right now.
“To get to the point where large numbers of people who buckle their seat belts live well into their 90s, I expect we’re on the way to doing that right now.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
14 / prediction
The predictions I made in my book Average Is Over, that AI would be the next big thing and it would all be about how well can you work with AI — that’s done very, very well.
“The predictions I made in my book Average Is Over, that AI would be the next big thing and it would all be about how well can you work with AI — that’s done very, very well.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
15 / prediction
Viktor, yes, you could say he’s the hero or, certainly, center of the novel, but what ends up happening is, Viktor — this is not too much of a spoiler because we know what did happen — ends up helping Stalin build nuclear weapons, and he can’t be too thrilled by that.
“Viktor, yes, you could say he’s the hero or, certainly, center of the novel, but what ends up happening is, Viktor — this is not too much of a spoiler because we know what did happen — ends up helping Stalin build nuclear weapons, and he can’t be too thrilled by that.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
16 / prediction
American leaders, in a sense, are too asleep to even see that, so we just let things happen, and that’s for the better in the long run. But they throw their CEOs in jail, and they’re afraid it will take away power of the CCP, and they’re just not going to catch us.
“American leaders, in a sense, are too asleep to even see that, so we just let things happen, and that’s for the better in the long run. But they throw their CEOs in jail, and they’re afraid it will take away power of the CCP, and they’re just not going to catch us.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
17 / prediction
The robot will take perfect footage. Whatever is there, the robot will send back to us.
“The robot will take perfect footage. Whatever is there, the robot will send back to us.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
18 / prediction
Where do you see the monopoly power evolving? Because it’s essential, I think, to predictions of the model.
“Where do you see the monopoly power evolving? Because it’s essential, I think, to predictions of the model.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
19 / prediction
If we think of AI and its impact in sociological terms, large language models, who will gain in status and who will decline in status?
“If we think of AI and its impact in sociological terms, large language models, who will gain in status and who will decline in status?”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
20 / prediction
So we need to restructure our whole discourse about tacit knowledge in some new, different way. But I agree, these networks of AIs, even before, like GPT eleven, they’re going to be super productive, but they’re still going to face bottlenecks.
“So we need to restructure our whole discourse about tacit knowledge in some new, different way. But I agree, these networks of AIs, even before, like GPT eleven, they’re going to be super productive, but they’re still going to face bottlenecks.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
21 / prediction
There were betting markets on lives in 17th century Britain, different attempts to outlaw them, which I think basically ended up succeeding.
“There were betting markets on lives in 17th century Britain, different attempts to outlaw them, which I think basically ended up succeeding.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
22 / prediction
The challenge might be competing against AI, and it doesn’t have to be that AI does it better than you or I do, though it might, but simply that people prefer to read what the AIs generate for ten or 20 years. And it’s harder to get an audience because playing with the AIs is a lot of fun.
“The challenge might be competing against AI, and it doesn’t have to be that AI does it better than you or I do, though it might, but simply that people prefer to read what the AIs generate for ten or 20 years. And it’s harder to get an audience because playing with the AIs is a lot of fun.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
23 / prediction
As we’re speaking in October of 2023, Elon Musk has suggested that he will take X — formerly Twitter — and turn it into some kind of universal payments app.
“As we’re speaking in October of 2023, Elon Musk has suggested that he will take X — formerly Twitter — and turn it into some kind of universal payments app.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
24 / prediction
I think the price of energy is going to go up a lot because people will need to compute, and they’ll be building all these new projects, and that’s a good thing.
“I think the price of energy is going to go up a lot because people will need to compute, and they’ll be building all these new projects, and that’s a good thing.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
25 / prediction
So, as Chinese became the №1 group coming to the United States, we started getting a lot of regional cuisines. But also look for places that are not too easy to get to, not frequented by too many tourists, and have grumpy diners and abusive staff because there’s a selection effect.
“So, as Chinese became the №1 group coming to the United States, we started getting a lot of regional cuisines. But also look for places that are not too easy to get to, not frequented by too many tourists, and have grumpy diners and abusive staff because there’s a selection effect.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
26 / prediction
I think one of the things Swift is showing us with these very odd societies — their wars, to us, make no sense — he’s saying the wars of his own time, from any future vantage point, won’t make any more sense either.
“I think one of the things Swift is showing us with these very odd societies — their wars, to us, make no sense — he’s saying the wars of his own time, from any future vantage point, won’t make any more sense either.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler