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Dwarkesh Podcast / episode intelligence

Tyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans

9 Jan 2025 31 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Tyler CowenDwarkesh Patel

Claim mix

belief 18evaluation 6recommendation 2uncertainty 2prediction 2preference 1

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Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

31 published records

06 / belief

Not at first. But I think I've heard of projects—this is secondhand, I'm not sure how true it is—but interviews are being recorded by companies that do a lot of interviews.

“Not at first. But I think I've heard of projects—this is secondhand, I'm not sure how true it is—but interviews are being recorded by companies that do a lot of interviews.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / belief

Wasn't Churchill, by the time he was 24, an international correspondent in Cuba and India? I think he was the highest-paid journalist in the world by the time he was 24.

“Wasn't Churchill, by the time he was 24, an international correspondent in Cuba and India? I think he was the highest-paid journalist in the world by the time he was 24.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

19 / prediction

If you put together the two views where in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.

“If you put together the two views where in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

20 / belief

Classical economics figured that out. They were too pessimistic, I would say. But they understood the pessimism intrinsic in diminishing returns in a way that people in the Bay Area do not.

“Classical economics figured that out. They were too pessimistic, I would say. But they understood the pessimism intrinsic in diminishing returns in a way that people in the Bay Area do not.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

23 / preference

Since I'm an input other than the AI, or I hope, that means I rise in marginal value, but I need to do different things. So, I think of myself over time as less a producer of content and more a connector, people person, developing networks in a way where if there somehow had been no transformers and LLMs, I would have stayed a bit more as the producer of content.

“Since I'm an input other than the AI, or I hope, that means I rise in marginal value, but I need to do different things. So, I think of myself over time as less a producer of content and more a connector, people person, developing networks in a way where if there somehow had been no transformers and LLMs, I would have stayed a bit more as the producer of content.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

25 / evaluation

Not that I think there's anything intrinsically bad about it—I'm at a progress studies conference with you. But still, when you think about selection and adverse selection, I think you've got to be very careful and keep on raising the bar there.

“Not that I think there's anything intrinsically bad about it—I'm at a progress studies conference with you. But still, when you think about selection and adverse selection, I think you've got to be very careful and keep on raising the bar there.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

27 / evaluation

They all matter. But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth.

“They all matter. But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / evaluation

One problem is that some parts of your economy grow very rapidly, and then you get a cost disease in the other parts of your economy that, for instance, can't use AI very well.

“One problem is that some parts of your economy grow very rapidly, and then you get a cost disease in the other parts of your economy that, for instance, can't use AI very well.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

29 / evaluation

I think courage is a very scarce input in a lot of decisions. Founders have courage to begin with, but they also need less courage to see through a big change in what the company will do.

“I think courage is a very scarce input in a lot of decisions. Founders have courage to begin with, but they also need less courage to see through a big change in what the company will do.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

31 / recommendation

No one is writing or recording for the AIs very much. But if you believe even a modest version of this progress—and I'm modest in what I believe relative to you and many of you—you should be doing this.

“No one is writing or recording for the AIs very much. But if you believe even a modest version of this progress—and I'm modest in what I believe relative to you and many of you—you should be doing this.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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