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Tyler Cowen: evaluation

9 Jan 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Tyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans

“They all matter. But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth.”

— Tyler Cowen

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Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
evaluation
Recorded
9 Jan 2025
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

Transcript context

…Why not buy the models? His model is far too much a one-factor model, right? Population. I don't think it's very predictive. We've had big increases in effective world population in terms of purchasing power. A lot of different areas have not become more innovative. Until the last, say, four years, most of them became less innovative. So it's really about the quality of your best people or institutions, as you and Patrick were discussing last night. And there it's unclear what's happened, but it's also fragile. There's the perspective of the economist, but also that of the anthropologist, the sociologist. They all matter. But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth. What you just said, where you're bottlenecked by your best people, seems to contradict what you were saying in your initial answer, that even if you boost the best parts, you're going to be bottlenecked by the restaurants.…

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