Tyler Cowen: prediction

Transcript context

…When do we hit peak progress studies? You know, when Patrick and I wrote the piece on progress and progress studies, he and I thought about this, talked about it. I can't speak for him, but my view at least was that it would never be such a formal thing or controlled or managed or directed by a small group of people or trademarked. It would be people doing things in a very decentralized way that would reflect a general change of ethos and vibe. So, I hope it has, in many ways, a gentler but more enduring trajectory. And I think so far I'm seeing that. I think in a lot of countries, science policy will be much better because of progress studies. That's not proven yet. You see some signs of that. You wouldn't say it's really flipped, but a lot of reforms. You're in an area like no one else has any idea, much less a better idea or a good idea. And some modestly small number of people with some talent will work on it and get like a third to half of what they want. That will have a huge impact, and if that's all it is, I'm thrilled. I think it will be more than that. I asked Patrick yesterday, how do you think about progress studies differently now that you know AI is a thing that's happening?…

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