Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedTyler Cowen: prediction
29 May 2024 Conversations with Tyler Michael Nielsen on Collaboration, Quantum Computing, and Civilization's Fragility
“Where do you see the monopoly power evolving? Because it’s essential, I think, to predictions of the model.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 29 May 2024
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Yes. One model is everything is supplied competitively, maybe a bit like fast food today. I suspect that’s not true, but it could be true. There’s the oligopoly model. There’s the one company races ahead of the others, and then its own AI does R&D at an accelerated pace, and they stay ahead forever, or there’s one country, one company, one something controls all the chips. Where do you see the monopoly power evolving? Because it’s essential, I think, to predictions of the model. When I talk to people who know much more than I do, they all point at ASML as having been surprisingly hard to duplicate. It’s not so much do the lithography, but do the lithography at scale, which seems to be very, very hard.…
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