Tyler Cowen: prediction

Transcript context

…Isn’t there a Hayekian argument to be made that, listen, you can have billions of copies of these things. Imagine the sort of decentralized order that could result from the amount of decentralized tacit knowledge that billions of copies talking to each other could have. That in and of itself is an argument to be made about the whole thing as an emergent order will be much more powerful than we were anticipating. Well, I think it will be highly productive. What tacit knowledge means with AIs, I don’t think we understand yet. Is it by definition all non-passive? Or does the fact that how GPT four works is not legible to us or even its creators so much? Does that mean it’s possessing tacit knowledge, or is it not knowledge? None of those categories are well thought out, in my opinion. So we need to restructure our whole discourse about tacit knowledge in some new, different way. But I agree, these networks of AIs, even before, like GPT eleven, they’re going to be super productive, but they’re still going to face bottlenecks. Right. And I don’t know how good they’ll be at overcoming the behavioral bottlenecks of actual human beings, the bottlenecks of the law and regulation. And we’re going to have more regulation as we have more AIs. Right. Yeah. When you say there’ll be uncertainties, I think you made this argument when you were responding to Alex Epstein on fossil future, where you said uncertainties also extend out into the domain where there’s a bad outcome or much bigger outcome than you’re anticipating.…

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