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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

Paul Gillingham on Why Mexico Stays Together

25 Mar 2026 25 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

evaluation 11belief 10observation 1uncertainty 1recommendation 1prediction 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

25 published records

01 / evaluation

It’s an end to other empires’ pretensions. It’s the beginning of stabilization led by a brilliantly gifted, and this is a word I would almost never use, but a brilliantly gifted politician, Porfirio Díaz, who benefits from this being a time of a global boom when the rest of the world, the industrial world, craves Mexican resources.

“It’s an end to other empires’ pretensions. It’s the beginning of stabilization led by a brilliantly gifted, and this is a word I would almost never use, but a brilliantly gifted politician, Porfirio Díaz, who benefits from this being a time of a global boom when the rest of the world, the industrial world, craves Mexican resources.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / observation

Foreigners are untouchable. Because much of Yucatán, the Yucatán economy centers on tourism, the Riviera Maya, Cozumel, et cetera, there’s an awful lot in these key populated coastal strips of foreigners.

“Foreigners are untouchable. Because much of Yucatán, the Yucatán economy centers on tourism, the Riviera Maya, Cozumel, et cetera, there’s an awful lot in these key populated coastal strips of foreigners.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / evaluation

I would say, in part, because one of the traditional tourist attractions of Mexico is precisely indigenous culture, and because of this autonomy, Oaxaca has preserved a multitude of very strong indigenous cultures.

“I would say, in part, because one of the traditional tourist attractions of Mexico is precisely indigenous culture, and because of this autonomy, Oaxaca has preserved a multitude of very strong indigenous cultures.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / belief

There’s nothing like it in the Americas. It’s one of the key reasons, I think, that again, the countryside stays largely quiescent while it is stripped of resources in the 60 years after Cárdenas leaves office.

“There’s nothing like it in the Americas. It’s one of the key reasons, I think, that again, the countryside stays largely quiescent while it is stripped of resources in the 60 years after Cárdenas leaves office.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

07 / belief

I think human capital is by far the biggest problem. Then the slow rate at which small informal businesses are willing to enter the more heavily regulated sector is a real bottleneck.

“I think human capital is by far the biggest problem. Then the slow rate at which small informal businesses are willing to enter the more heavily regulated sector is a real bottleneck.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / belief

Now more recently, Mexico has a reputation for being very violent, but Yucatán is especially peaceful. There are years where it’s had a lower murder rate, I think, than Finland.

“Now more recently, Mexico has a reputation for being very violent, but Yucatán is especially peaceful. There are years where it’s had a lower murder rate, I think, than Finland.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

17 / evaluation

He has a new book out: Mexico: A 500-Year History. It is, in my view, the single best introduction to the history of Mexico and will be one of the best nonfiction books of this year, 2026.

“He has a new book out: Mexico: A 500-Year History. It is, in my view, the single best introduction to the history of Mexico and will be one of the best nonfiction books of this year, 2026.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

18 / evaluation

One is this really joined-up noncoercive population control of the ’70s and ’80s, which was a global model. Mexico hosted the global conference on this, I think twice or three times.

“One is this really joined-up noncoercive population control of the ’70s and ’80s, which was a global model. Mexico hosted the global conference on this, I think twice or three times.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / evaluation

If it’s repression, then generally, conciliation works better. This extremely complex equation, I think, is what keeps the army out of politics, what keeps relative peace and relative buy-in to this unequal single-party state.

“If it’s repression, then generally, conciliation works better. This extremely complex equation, I think, is what keeps the army out of politics, what keeps relative peace and relative buy-in to this unequal single-party state.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / evaluation

The cargo system whereby you, an indigenous zone, assume political office with absolutely zero payoff and at quite considerable cost in terms of cash and time, it makes sense because it brings the brightest and best into office over and over again.

“The cargo system whereby you, an indigenous zone, assume political office with absolutely zero payoff and at quite considerable cost in terms of cash and time, it makes sense because it brings the brightest and best into office over and over again.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / prediction

Most people in villages—this depends very much where you go—but the reason half the men aren’t there is precisely because they have migrated to work, whether it be migrating to cities, whether it be migrating to the north.

“Most people in villages—this depends very much where you go—but the reason half the men aren’t there is precisely because they have migrated to work, whether it be migrating to cities, whether it be migrating to the north.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / evaluation

The other is You Dreamed of Empires in English, which is a retelling of the conquest as this glorified heist by a bunch of fortunate thugs, which I think most historians would agree with, and has some twists in it which are stunning.

“The other is You Dreamed of Empires in English, which is a retelling of the conquest as this glorified heist by a bunch of fortunate thugs, which I think most historians would agree with, and has some twists in it which are stunning.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / evaluation

” The idea of electing judges is a really poor idea, I think, in Mexico because of the interest of local drug-trading organizations in having sympathetic judges.

“” The idea of electing judges is a really poor idea, I think, in Mexico because of the interest of local drug-trading organizations in having sympathetic judges.”
Speaker
Paul Gillingham
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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