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Velina Tchakarova on China, Russia, and the Future of Geopolitics

12 Jun 2024 11 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Tyler CowenVelina Tchakarova

Claim mix

evaluation 5prediction 3uncertainty 1commitment 1preference 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

11 published records

01 / uncertainty

We’re recording a day after the Iranian helicopter crash, and we don’t know what happened. It might have just been a helicopter crash because of bad weather and fog, but surely you have clients calling you, messaging you, pinging you, wanting to know what’s going on.

“We’re recording a day after the Iranian helicopter crash, and we don’t know what happened. It might have just been a helicopter crash because of bad weather and fog, but surely you have clients calling you, messaging you, pinging you, wanting to know what’s going on.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

02 / evaluation

Like I said, this is the best-case scenario from Russia’s point of view because every time there were ceasefire agreements and any kind of negotiations in this case, this will also legitimize the Russian territorial gains.

“Like I said, this is the best-case scenario from Russia’s point of view because every time there were ceasefire agreements and any kind of negotiations in this case, this will also legitimize the Russian territorial gains.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / commitment

I actually draw scenarios for the future of international relations and for the future of the relations between great powers — for instance, China-United States, or Russia-China, or India-China, and so on and so forth — for the next 10 to 15 years, thanks to trends and risk analysis.

“I actually draw scenarios for the future of international relations and for the future of the relations between great powers — for instance, China-United States, or Russia-China, or India-China, and so on and so forth — for the next 10 to 15 years, thanks to trends and risk analysis.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / evaluation

ping, is somehow put into a corner to take a very, let’s say, ad hoc decision on the matter because of certain circles of the hawks, of the military hawks.

“ping, is somehow put into a corner to take a very, let’s say, ad hoc decision on the matter because of certain circles of the hawks, of the military hawks.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / preference

Twitter, which is now X, is just for fun. This is my rescue from the day because the whole day I just read and read and read a lot of sources, a lot of information.

“Twitter, which is now X, is just for fun. This is my rescue from the day because the whole day I just read and read and read a lot of sources, a lot of information.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

06 / evaluation

When I was talking about bipolarity in 2015, or when I was talking about the Dragonbear since 2014 — the Dragonbear being this modus vivendi of China and Russia, as modus operandi to coordinate without the necessity to enter any strategic alliance — people were not interested because it did not really affect the daily life of politics.

“When I was talking about bipolarity in 2015, or when I was talking about the Dragonbear since 2014 — the Dragonbear being this modus vivendi of China and Russia, as modus operandi to coordinate without the necessity to enter any strategic alliance — people were not interested because it did not really affect the daily life of politics.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / prediction

In a sense, I’m not surprised that we are in this situation where both sides are trying to instrumentalize legal norms, rules, standards, but to no avail because in the end, until we do not have a new winner or new emerging blocks with their reading of international law, with their understanding of organizational principles, with their structures, we will be in this gray zone of interpretation and misinterpretation.

“In a sense, I’m not surprised that we are in this situation where both sides are trying to instrumentalize legal norms, rules, standards, but to no avail because in the end, until we do not have a new winner or new emerging blocks with their reading of international law, with their understanding of organizational principles, with their structures, we will be in this gray zone of interpretation and misinterpretation.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

09 / evaluation

The global system — this is my own concept that I’ve been working with since 2014. And that is that practically all the relevant socioeconomic networks — you take a global finance system, you take a global energy system, you take the global finance, trade, economy, agriculture — so these most relevant socioeconomic systems that have emerged specifically because of the last globalization wave following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“The global system — this is my own concept that I’ve been working with since 2014. And that is that practically all the relevant socioeconomic networks — you take a global finance system, you take a global energy system, you take the global finance, trade, economy, agriculture — so these most relevant socioeconomic systems that have emerged specifically because of the last globalization wave following the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / prediction

Even though China is catching up militarily right now, I think that the mindset of this Chinese leadership — the way the Chinese leadership is actually conducting strategy — does contradict such risky endeavor, again because time is on China’s side.

“Even though China is catching up militarily right now, I think that the mindset of this Chinese leadership — the way the Chinese leadership is actually conducting strategy — does contradict such risky endeavor, again because time is on China’s side.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / prediction

North Korea — I think that North Korea would not go for the nuclear weapon because the moment when they decide this, they will be annihilated not by one, but by two critically important players because the whole lifeline for North Korea is coming from China and, by extension, from Russia.

“North Korea — I think that North Korea would not go for the nuclear weapon because the moment when they decide this, they will be annihilated not by one, but by two critically important players because the whole lifeline for North Korea is coming from China and, by extension, from Russia.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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