Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
40 published records
01 / belief
“I think so, yes. Again, if it improves you by like 0.5 percent ROI, that becomes pretty meaningful in the context of a sports bet.”
02 / commitment
“You can say we are going to go back to 1936 — I think was the first time Gallup issued a presidential election poll — and look empirically at how accurate those polls are at X number of days from the election.”
03 / belief
“I think that 90 percent of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts.”
04 / belief
“LeBron’s in a funny place because, I think, he’s clearly, by the career metrics, now the best NBA player of all time.”
05 / belief
“I’m looking more like a long-term brand intangible, which I think does seem to matter a lot in the NBA.”
06 / belief
“I would say, relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th pe rcentile of progress I would’ve expected.”
07 / belief
“Look, in some ways, I think the AIs are more human-like than people expected, and that, to me, seems like a positive update.”
08 / uncertainty
“If you’re a Canadian NHL superstar playing in the US — I don’t think Sidney Crosby has any trouble. I don’t know if he’s on Tim Horton ads, or whatever.”
09 / belief
“I think one thing people have figured out is, all the high-taste things that rich people really like — there’s been huge inflation.”
10 / belief
“I think parts of Europe and maybe Canada that are maybe anti-US may become more resistant to populist sentiment, for example.”
11 / commitment
“Oh, sure. I will literally randomize sometimes. Where you look at the tournament clock, and if it’s a high number, then you’ll bluff, and if it’s a low number, then you’ll play more passively, for example.”
12 / uncertainty
“I don’t know. I don’t know if I have a prediction there exactly. It’s hard to have surprising predictions, Tyler.”
13 / belief
“I think, obviously, EA took a lot of hits for Sam Bankman-Fried, but if anything, they probably should have taken more reputational damage.”
14 / belief
“Netherlands is now doing it, but it just seems to be a very slow process, given how I think about democratic accountability on most other issues.”
15 / uncertainty
“I don’t know how many languages they speak and how diverse in every respect that country is, and they count their results very quickly.”
16 / uncertainty
“I think I’m enough of a critic of the two major parties that I’d have to say yes for the most part, although I don’t know.”
17 / belief
“I think all this might reverse within a few years, where the world realizes we have a shortage of young people in general, a fertility crisis, if you want to call it that, and an aging population, and will want to have people who are willing to work hard and are skilled in particular, so maybe they’re skating to where the puck is going.”
18 / belief
“Also, a lot of it’s gone on Bluesky, I think, and I can’t tolerate Bluesky, really.”
19 / belief
“Oh, I think the Spurs with LeBron James this year could potentially win a title.”
20 / belief
“I think there were reasons why anti-incumbent and populist spirit rose from the pandemic onward, but we might have been at a high-water mark for it, potentially, in parts of the world.”
21 / belief
“To me, that’s a lot of negative information, so I think the Lakers will do poorly.”
22 / belief
“We had a draft of the 20 most likely Democratic nominees. I think Stephen Smith was a ninth-round draft pick.”
23 / belief
“Two years ago, I had a really good time betting the women’s NCAA basketball tournament before the markets had adapted, but I think people figured out, “Okay, these are pretty soft lines.”
24 / belief
“We have this piece now, where we’re ranking all 30 NBA teams by their long-term, 10-year chance of winning a championship, and they’re right in the middle for me, I think: 15th out of 30.”
25 / belief
“Look, I think the consensus is that we have some bad guys, as Trump would call them, and people are not particularly sympathetic to them.”
26 / belief
“I think some of this is short-sightedness in the sense that we’ll probably have a pretty profound backlash to it, I would think.”
27 / belief
“I think the equilibrium part — solve for the equilibrium — is something that people don’t get as much.”
28 / belief
“Look, I think some of Silicon Valley has that attitude a little bit. It tends to be correlated with other things that might be less desirable.”
29 / belief
“Given that the edges are pretty small in general, in sports betting, you’re probably either losing by 1 percent ROI or winning by 1 percent ROI. Then any of that is helpful, I think.”
30 / belief
“Particularly, you’ve seen candidates adopt different strategies for it by cross-endorsing, for example. Although, I think I’ve turned mildly anti-RCV for a couple of reasons.”
31 / prediction
“I think any other non-Vance candidate is going to have a lot of trouble escaping the shadow of Trump, so I’d regard Democrats as a 55–45 favorite for 2028, pricing in some chance they’ll nominate what I would think of as a suboptimal — from an electoral standpoint — candidate.”
32 / recommendation
“I’m not being that close, but I think we need it more of a norm in American elections toward counting votes within 24 to 48 hours.”
33 / evaluation
“As thought experiments, they can be helpful and fine, but I think if you ignore the 1 percent of edge cases .”
34 / evaluation
“I think the Math Olympiad, in part because maybe the answers are somewhere latent in the training data, but even if they’re not, if you try to solve, what’s a Lucas critique?”
35 / evaluation
“I think if you hyper-optimize for every parameter in your day-to-day life, then you probably wind up being fairly miserable.”
36 / evaluation
“The example I think I use in the book is Ezekiel Emanuel, telling people you shouldn’t go to restaurants because we still have some COVIDs like now, in 2022, 2023, right?”
37 / evaluation
“Economics is amazing in the sense that it predicts human behavior, I think, fairly well when you have repeated trials and people that have good feedback and incentive to be optimal.”
38 / evaluation
“I think there is not a substitute for how it correlates to real-world scenarios, because it’s so contextual and semantic.”
39 / prediction
“His ratings fell pretty fast early — because of, I think, predominantly tariffs — and then recovered.”
40 / evaluation
“I worry, with the Math Olympiad stuff — there’s a little bit of teaching to the test where, because you set this as the goal that a large language model should have, that therefore there’s a lot of prestige when you meet that goal, potentially —”