Nate Silver: prediction

Transcript context

…What does that scenario look like, where he wins? I think it’s where Democrats feel really . . . Well, the reason why I would not be as optimistic as you are is, I think that other people with the platform will emerge. I had not, frankly, heard of Zohran Mamdani’s name when we taped our last conversation a year ago. He might now be one of the five most recognizable names in the party. The fact that he’s from Uganda prevents him from running for president. You’ll see other people emerge. I think there is probably some indication that you’re going to have more energy on the left, more energy from people who are explicitly partisan, maybe to the point of being a little bit paranoid. There is a little bit of election denialism among certain threads of Democrats, for example, that Trump stole the election from Kamala Harris. It’s nascent for now, but I think a partisan fighter . . . and also, you’re filtering out. People get confused because they’re like, “Why is Democrat electorate . . .” Because Cuomo did very well, always in New York City when running statewide. Hillary Clinton did very well in New York City. It diverted Bernie Sanders’ campaign in 2020. It’s because people in the center have migrated away from the Democratic Party, so you’re having these two things that go on at once. I do think there’s a chance that Democrats will overestimate how tolerant the rest of the country is for progressive governance. But with that said, I think JD Vance is also a pretty flawed candidate. I think any other non-Vance candidate is going to have a lot of trouble escaping the shadow of Trump, so I’d regard Democrats as a 55–45 favorite for 2028, pricing in some chance they’ll nominate what I would think of as a suboptimal — from an electoral standpoint — candidate. I’m not telling anybody who they should nominate in terms of whose values they have. I think people neglect the importance of the primary system and the optionality, and the revealed preferences of voters. It is a pretty good proxy for running a general election campaign, is running a primary campaign that goes through all 50 states, and you’re raising money, you’re giving speeches, things like that. I think the idea of an external savior who’s a centrist is becoming a bit less likely than I would’ve thought a year ago. Do you think the major tech companies have proprietary information where they can predict elections better than anyone or anything? They may not even bother to do it, but is it there in principle?…

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