Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedNate Silver: prediction
13 Aug 2025 Conversations with Tyler Nate Silver on Life's Mixed Strategies
“His ratings fell pretty fast early — because of, I think, predominantly tariffs — and then recovered.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Nate Silver
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 13 Aug 2025
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…It’s common that weird nondemocratic governments have elections of some kind, right? Even the Soviet Union had “elections.” They do, but for that transition to occur in the US . . . Also, Trump is not particularly popular. His ratings fell pretty fast early — because of, I think, predominantly tariffs — and then recovered. Now they’ve fallen again. I don’t know how much of that is more tariffs versus, frankly, the Epstein stuff, [laughs] for example. A lot of the scenario — it helps for populists to be popular. We certainly have enough checks and balances in the US. People are not being force-fed information from any one source. I worry about a lot of things with Trump. That’s probably not the foremost concern. I’ve seen Stephen Smith, the ESPN sports commentator — you probably even know him — but as high as 9 percent in the market to be Democratic nominee. What do you think his actual number is?…
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