Nate Silver: belief

Transcript context

…Now, speaking of predictions, a year ago, we talked about how long will it take AIs to be as good as human superforecasters? You made a prediction, where you said at least 10 to 15 years. Now, a year later, do you want to revisit that and revise? I think it’s probably about right. I would say, relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th pe rcentile of progress I would’ve expected. I’d be curious what you would think. A year ago, I said two to three years. Right now, I’m going to say one to two years, which is the same prediction. I think you’re way too pessimistic in your timetable.…

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