Nate Silver: evaluation

Transcript context

…If someone wants to learn how to read tells, other than just say, playing a lot of poker or doing the thing, how do they do that? I think there is not a substitute for how it correlates to real-world scenarios, because it’s so contextual and semantic. I was at the World Series for most of June. Played in the main event, which is a $10,000 tournament. There was a guy who had a very rapid heartbeat. You could see his carotid artery. His heart’s beating in his neck. That’s obviously often a tell. However, some people get more nervous when they’re bluffing; some get more nervous when they have a strong hand. So, you have to correlate that with behavior, and that’s contextual. The fact that he was an intermediate player and not a really good player or a complete novice — fish, we call them in poker. You’re building up an implicit database in your head just by watching a lot, including watching when you’re not involved in a hand. In poker, you’re folding most of the time. I’m watching people and making a little prediction, “Oh, that feels strong,” something he did. Then, if you’re right 60 percent of the time — 60 percent instead of 50 percent random — that’s a huge edge. In gambling, any 55 percent-45 percent edge is enormous; 60 percent-40 percent or 65 percent-35 percent will make you a very winning player. If you’re watching an NBA game, is there any meaningful way in which you can read tells, like, “Oh, Luka has a bad attitude tonight.”…

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