Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
42 published records
01 / belief
“I also can focus and work pretty hard, so I think I would have wound up in interesting places a lot, but I feel very blessed and lucky to have wound up in this particular place.”
02 / belief
“I think I’d say Jokić, who, to me, is the greatest offensive player ever. Not necessarily recognized as such.”
03 / belief
“Now, that’s a Knicks fan coming out, although he was, I think, fifth or sixth in the MVP voting potentially this year.”
04 / belief
“I think there is a lot to be said for having — skin in the game is a term that I didn’t invent.”
05 / belief
“If you talked to Sunny, he’d say maybe two-thirds of the teams are fairly smart, and one-third of them are still dumb. I think we’ve probably passed the low-hanging fruit from Moneyball gains stage.”
06 / belief
“Maybe it’s not super, but let’s say until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock’s superforecasters. I would say that’s three to four years away, would be my guess.”
07 / belief
“You would therefore have three one-term presidents in a row for the first time since, I think, 1892-ish.”
08 / belief
“I think in general that history is often quite contingent on very flawed human beings.”
09 / belief
“I think my stupidest risks might just be road trips in places where the drivers are bad.”
10 / belief
“I think there might be something to that, and there are lots of people in the book that probably would be classified as being on the spectrum or would classify themselves that way.”
11 / belief
“I lost a fair bit of money trying to bet against the Mavericks in the playoffs, so I can’t call him overrated, I guess. I think Luka is properly rated.”
12 / belief
“I think things like classifying strategies in soccer and football, where you have a lot of things happening at once, and you can’t have your nice little regression model, as compared to, say, baseball, where baseball’s very easy to represent with classical statistics.”
13 / belief
“I think prediction is actually a pretty hard skill that probably life experience helps.”
14 / belief
“I think there probably is some notion of critical mass when you have enough liquidity and enough volume to have relatively efficient pricing.”
15 / belief
“I think election forecasting is an oddly hard problem, where the mathematical structure of it is fairly complex.”
16 / belief
“You wouldn’t want to take that risk constantly, but I think you have to live a little bit.”
17 / belief
“I think Peter Singer, too, talks a little bit about how he almost thinks people that are somewhere on the spectrum are actually better moral reasoners in some ways.”
18 / belief
“I think he is quite insane, irresponsible and insane, but I think he was very literal about being willing to take the St.”
19 / belief
“I think people might not realize that this is one of the highest peaks of any player in NBA history.”
20 / belief
“I know Daryl Morey pretty well. I think he’s probably a fan of yours. I’d say yes, I think.”
21 / belief
“Hopefully, I’ll find other ways to hire more of them in the future, but people who are a little bit more directed, I think, and organized.”
22 / belief
“Maybe a little bit, but if you go watch footage of a game from the ’90s or something, this is more aesthetically appealing. It shows off some of the athleticism, I think, but the fact that you have less variety — this is true in poker too, by the way.”
23 / belief
“We talked before about how I’m a little bit rambunctious and easily dissatisfied, and at this point, I think I’ve traveled — not like you, but been to a lot of different places and talked to a lot of people.”
24 / belief
“I think people are actually more intuitive, probabilistic reasoners than maybe the conventional wisdom holds.”
25 / belief
“People who are very competitive — and I put myself in that category, I think — can sometimes be a little bit irrational about continuing to fight even after they’ve already won.”
26 / belief
“I think I still probably have too much of a short-term bias in terms of not doing enough things to help extend my lifespan.”
27 / belief
“I think you of all people may be underestimating the efficiency gains that are to be had when there are proper incentives and proper technology — basically, the combination and just the sheer volume of the number of nodes on the game tree that have been explored.”
28 / belief
“Look, I think most of the studies on gambling say that it’s a good transaction in terms of people getting some degree of enjoyment and excitement out of it, but maybe you have 5 percent of the population that becomes very addicted, and that 5 percent can account for a large share of volume.”
29 / belief
“If drugs are one way to get to role-play a different person a little bit, then I think that probably is helpful for a fair number of people.”
30 / belief
“Some of Sam Bankman-Fried’s confidants, who are I think are in a very different category than these mountain climbers — they would say things like, “Well, he was miserable anyway, so he wouldn’t necessarily mind going to jail because in his day-to-day life, he was depressed and unhappy, so therefore .”
31 / belief
“I tend to be pretty analytical about really important career and life-choice decisions, I think.”
32 / belief
“I think that the time horizons might be too long to be actionable necessarily. In the same way in sports betting, you can probably make money on futures bets.”
33 / evaluation
“Everyone assumed that because he has such prestigious coattails, that he’s hanging out with Anna Wintour and hanging out with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, and he has his name up on a basketball arena in Miami, and he’s getting his praises sung by everybody in Sequoia Capital, and things like that.”
34 / evaluation
“” Now, they don’t even try to advertise it as a skill game anymore, which in some ways is a mistake because the appeal to the male ego is a huge way to get new customers for sports betting and things like that.”
35 / evaluation
“Also, the incentives in the NBA — and if you try to model out what the true discount rate is for sports general managers, they have some absurdly high discount rate, like 30 percent or something like that, or 50 percent, because their jobs last for five years on average.”
36 / preference
“Twice a year, I’ll have a friend who is like, “Let’s just go play blackjack for an hour and have a couple of free drinks,” and things like that. But I like to make bets where I think, at least in principle, I have an edge, or at least can fool myself into thinking I have an edge.”
37 / evaluation
“It’s contextual because I think we’ve gotten to the point now where offensive rebounding has gotten underrated, actually.”
38 / evaluation
“When you’re playing a poker tournament, everything is contingent because the tournament could last five more days or five more minutes.”
39 / evaluation
“You might get fired if someone finds out, but the retail books are like, “Yes, we can put bets up that a knowledgeable person could make money on because we won’t let the knowledgeable people bet in the first place.”
40 / evaluation
“A lot of people — like Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos, for example — they had childhood trauma but not so traumatic, and they had enough privilege in different ways that they were able to still have people take their phone calls and things like that. But it’s often people where something, I think, went a little bit haywire, and they’re not necessarily strictly rational in some sense.”
41 / preference
“I need somebody like that because I’m running all over the place, and I can run a little hot and cold and be a little bit moody.”
42 / evaluation
“Yes, uniquely in basketball, because it’s five players in a lineup at any given time, and a good player can control half the offense or more, literally — a Luka-type player or a Steph Curry-type player.”