Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedTyler Cowen: belief
21 Aug 2024 Conversations with Tyler Nate Silver on Risk-takers, Politicians, and Poker Players
“Maybe it’s not super, but let’s say until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock’s superforecasters. I would say that’s three to four years away, would be my guess.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 21 Aug 2024
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…I am not convinced necessarily that we’re going to achieve superintelligence. I think it’s plausible-ish that it plateaus at very smart generalist human capabilities and is very good in certain areas, but I’ve become a little bit less convinced just in the last six months — since I had to send the book in to the printer, basically — of the inevitability of achieving superintelligence. Maybe it’s not super, but let’s say until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock’s superforecasters. I would say that’s three to four years away, would be my guess. Closer to three, maybe even two. What would you say? I would take the over, I think, on that.…
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