Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedNate Silver: belief
21 Aug 2024 Conversations with Tyler Nate Silver on Risk-takers, Politicians, and Poker Players
“I think people are actually more intuitive, probabilistic reasoners than maybe the conventional wisdom holds.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Nate Silver
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 21 Aug 2024
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Who was the first human to think probabilistically with a reasonable degree of consistency? Or have we seen one yet? I think people are actually more intuitive, probabilistic reasoners than maybe the conventional wisdom holds. If you’re thinking about some hunter-gatherer — they’re reading context clues about where might be the particular wild beasts they want to kill and want to avoid being killed by. Gambling goes back very early in many cultures. Apparently not quite universal, but probably very common in most cultures. But that’s a sign they don’t think probabilistically because most gambling is negative sum, right? At best, zero sum, so we should see very little of it.…
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