Nate Silver: belief

Transcript context

…Take a truly important commercial question, like will China invade Taiwan, or when will they invade? I’ve looked at different markets or pretend markets on that. I just don’t take those seriously. It’s not that I feel I have a better estimate, but they don’t cause much updating for me. I think that the time horizons might be too long to be actionable necessarily. In the same way in sports betting, you can probably make money on futures bets. If I were to bet right now on who will win the NBA title in 2024 or ’25, there are probably some +EV bets there on the surface. However, that means I would have to tie up my capital for a year. There might also be some risk that the site I bet on goes belly-up or that I die or something. These long-term bets I think are — But that’s not very long term. That’s less than a year away. T-bill rates — they’re higher than they were, but they’re not that high. You have some marginal funds in things like T-bills. You’re in good enough health. You don’t want to do the submersible with the billionaire.…

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