Nate Silver: evaluation

Transcript context

…You think Paul George was a good idea? I think it was a bad idea. He’s 34. He’s had a history of being flaky. He’s a very talented player, but he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy to put you over the edge, and they need more of a glue guy. Daryl Morey is very good at finding the league-average players that can provide the glue guy. No, I think it’s a good move. Look, Daryl understands the importance of swinging for the fences. If healthy, that’s a very big three, and then he’ll find ways to acquire the minimum of salary guys or whatever loopholes there are on salary cap to get the $10-million-a-year guys. If healthy, that’s a team that can challenge the Celtics, I think. What’s the condition of probability in all three of their big three being healthy? Probably below 50 percent, frankly, but you don’t want the average outcome. Also, the incentives in the NBA — and if you try to model out what the true discount rate is for sports general managers, they have some absurdly high discount rate, like 30 percent or something like that, or 50 percent, because their jobs last for five years on average. Yes, sure.…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.