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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

Jacob Mikanowski on Eastern Europe

18 Oct 2023 25 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 11evaluation 8prediction 3recommendation 2uncertainty 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

25 published records

07 / uncertainty

I don’t know that Albania has expansionist ideas, but — to the extent that they have foreign policy aims — they do have to support their ethnic, their linguistic allies.

“I don’t know that Albania has expansionist ideas, but — to the extent that they have foreign policy aims — they do have to support their ethnic, their linguistic allies.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / belief

Some of the cybernetics tales, they seem weirdly close to the current state of LLMs. And I think I’ve seen this mentioned once, but it’s not generally known: the idea that you use them to talk to, that they’re weird, they might be somewhat mystical, they serve as therapists or oracles — that’s very much in Lem, quite early.

“Some of the cybernetics tales, they seem weirdly close to the current state of LLMs. And I think I’ve seen this mentioned once, but it’s not generally known: the idea that you use them to talk to, that they’re weird, they might be somewhat mystical, they serve as therapists or oracles — that’s very much in Lem, quite early.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / belief

I think of the Russian women I know: they would, say, be in their 50s largely. It’s surprising to me — or was originally — how many of them had their kids quite young.

“I think of the Russian women I know: they would, say, be in their 50s largely. It’s surprising to me — or was originally — how many of them had their kids quite young.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

16 / evaluation

Now there’s a new generation that seems much more Western, seems much more American. It’s visible in customer interactions, stores, fashion, and in how people even — facial expressions; eye contact’s a little more direct than it used to be, I think.

“Now there’s a new generation that seems much more Western, seems much more American. It’s visible in customer interactions, stores, fashion, and in how people even — facial expressions; eye contact’s a little more direct than it used to be, I think.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

17 / evaluation

My family, a lot of them went through the Holocaust in Poland. And studying the German occupation of especially Poland, where the Jews were so much, and the process — what happened there after the ghetto clearances, after ’41: I think that there’s a real message about human nature there.

“My family, a lot of them went through the Holocaust in Poland. And studying the German occupation of especially Poland, where the Jews were so much, and the process — what happened there after the ghetto clearances, after ’41: I think that there’s a real message about human nature there.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

18 / evaluation

The Battle of the Field of Blackbirds, 1389: it is pivotal in Serbian memory and Serbian mythmaking, that moment — although they really mythologized it — of the great defeat of Serbia at the hands of the Ottomans, and then wresting a kind of victory by assassinating the Ottoman sultan in the last second after the battle’s been lost. I think there’s a real pull of history.

“The Battle of the Field of Blackbirds, 1389: it is pivotal in Serbian memory and Serbian mythmaking, that moment — although they really mythologized it — of the great defeat of Serbia at the hands of the Ottomans, and then wresting a kind of victory by assassinating the Ottoman sultan in the last second after the battle’s been lost. I think there’s a real pull of history.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / prediction

There’s enormous untapped tourism potential, because it’s the last piece of European — really prime Mediterranean coastline that hasn’t been developed deeply, extensively.

“There’s enormous untapped tourism potential, because it’s the last piece of European — really prime Mediterranean coastline that hasn’t been developed deeply, extensively.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / evaluation

The people who end up protecting the people they protect the longest, hold out the longest, hold out to the end, are usually people who live on the absolute margins: widows, outcasts, people with no money, people in terrible shape, people whose lives would be transformed by having an iron stove or a pair of pants. But if you were to take that when you were hiding Jews, and you were to take their money and buy something like that, immediately all your neighbors would know what you’re doing, because every village is 100 eyes watching everybody else.

“The people who end up protecting the people they protect the longest, hold out the longest, hold out to the end, are usually people who live on the absolute margins: widows, outcasts, people with no money, people in terrible shape, people whose lives would be transformed by having an iron stove or a pair of pants. But if you were to take that when you were hiding Jews, and you were to take their money and buy something like that, immediately all your neighbors would know what you’re doing, because every village is 100 eyes watching everybody else.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / evaluation

I think there is such a complicated story there of Ukraine between Poland and especially Russia of being entangled with both of those and creating itself in relation and against both of those.

“I think there is such a complicated story there of Ukraine between Poland and especially Russia of being entangled with both of those and creating itself in relation and against both of those.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

23 / evaluation

They don’t have that thing that Asimov does, or even Dune, of world-building and forecasting the human future far in advance. They are like Kafka in space, and that’s absurd situations, strange turns of events — I think a pretty pessimistic view of progress.

“They don’t have that thing that Asimov does, or even Dune, of world-building and forecasting the human future far in advance. They are like Kafka in space, and that’s absurd situations, strange turns of events — I think a pretty pessimistic view of progress.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / evaluation

It is hard to travel around the Balkans now because there are hardly any long-distance railways. It’s hard to even cross the — I had a terrible time going from Belgrade to Sarajevo because you don’t get sent to Sarajevo, you get sent to the Sarajevo that belongs to Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia.

“It is hard to travel around the Balkans now because there are hardly any long-distance railways. It’s hard to even cross the — I had a terrible time going from Belgrade to Sarajevo because you don’t get sent to Sarajevo, you get sent to the Sarajevo that belongs to Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / prediction

To me, it’s strange that it’s gotten to the point that it’s gotten, but unless there’s a big movement in Hungarian society, which has tended to be pretty quiescent, I don’t know how the EU would really — or why the EU would decisively step in.

“To me, it’s strange that it’s gotten to the point that it’s gotten, but unless there’s a big movement in Hungarian society, which has tended to be pretty quiescent, I don’t know how the EU would really — or why the EU would decisively step in.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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