Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
28 published records
01 / uncertainty
“The 1890s might be interesting for me, because I don’t know as much about it as the Great Depression, which I studied intensively.”
02 / belief
“Let’s say we think of monetary policy as a game between the Fed and Congress, and Congress is always threatening to intervene in the economy, and most of those interventions are ill considered.”
03 / uncertainty
“You and I maybe aren’t in that scene. I don’t know. That’s all I could give you on that one.”
04 / belief
“Like, they’re fine, I agree they’re super talented, but I don’t really look forward to seeing the next thing they do.”
05 / belief
“I think painting didn’t get a lot of momentum again until the 19th century, when there was new innovations, which opened up new possibilities.”
06 / belief
“Again, I think the Fed felt that the crisis was very severe and that they needed to do a lot.”
07 / belief
“My view is that cinema has evolved in a way where the more interesting directors today are ones that have sort of a more weird or edgy style, more unusual style, because the conventional masterpieces like The Godfather have already been done.”
08 / belief
“I think that what happened in the case of COVID and other monetary policy mistakes, it’s more a question of the Fed just getting things wrong, misjudging the situation.”
09 / belief
“I think my view would be, when you get a very bad recession, it’s typically the combination of negative nominal shocks and significant negative real shocks, often to credit markets.”
10 / belief
“First of all, the deflation they’re going through, I would argue, is very similar to the deflation they went through in the late ’90s and early 2000s.”
11 / belief
“See, I believe that the fall in real GDP was mostly due to the fall in nominal GDP.”
12 / belief
“” Then there are some novels where you feel like a whole world has been sort of opened up in front of you. I think My Struggle was like that.”
13 / belief
“I believe the financial crisis was mostly a symptom of rapidly falling nominal GDP expectations.”
14 / belief
“I think the directors coming along now are perhaps as talented as ever or more talented, but it’s my receptivity to what’s being done is maybe not as high as when I was younger.”
15 / uncertainty
“Ones like North by Northwest, To Catch a Thief I think of as light and frothy, but I don’t know.”
16 / belief
“Now, if we think of the 1990s, the late ’90s, Taiwanese film is quite special. A bit later, South Korean film becomes the thing.”
17 / belief
“Also, in the field of economics, just seeing how policy shocks were interpreted at the time, as compared to how we think of them today — monetary policy decisions by Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal and so on — I found that very enlightening.”
18 / belief
“Now, for your books on the Great Depression, you once said that you read the New York Times for many years in a row, for I think the 1920s and the 1930s.”
19 / commitment
“For decades, I pursued work on the Great Depression. I think my book on the Great Depression is the one book I’m proud of.”
20 / evaluation
“I think, overall, his actions were widely popular in the United States, partly just because of the difference from what had happened right before.”
21 / evaluation
“When there is a banking crisis that starts in one place and spreads, the initial crisis might have been due to mistakes made by that individual bank, but the spread across the financial system is usually because the policymakers allowed nominal GDP to fall sharply.”
22 / evaluation
“I think that, again and again, when you look at these cases where there’s some sort of monetary policy mistake — America in 1929, Argentina in the late 1990s — you see the monetary policy mistake occurring first, in an otherwise healthy economy; then you see the financial crisis developing as nominal GDP is falling sharply.”
23 / evaluation
“I think monetary policy is one area where mistakes actually do occur fairly often, and you get outcomes that governments actually don’t want because they’re not thinking about the situation in the correct way.”
24 / evaluation
“I think that colored the views of policymakers in the early 1930s, made them reluctant to move away from fiat until the pain was so intense that politics forced them off of gold standard to fiat money.”
25 / prediction
“I don’t know if there’ll be classics like It’s a Wonderful Life and that sort of classic, but I think films by Wes Anderson may hold up well because his style is so distinctive, his visual style especially.”
26 / preference
“I’m a big fan of all the visual arts including painting, but I think painting as an art form was kind of played out by the early 20th century.”
27 / evaluation
“Or there’s simply a cognitive error like you’re not thinking about the problem in the right way, which has also been an enormous problem in monetary economics because of confusion about what low interest rates mean and other things about monetary policy that confuse even policymakers, often, into thinking their policy stance is different from what it actually is.”
28 / evaluation
“When our instincts tell us that there’s something tautological about the correlation between real and nominal GDP in the United States, it’s because our instincts have recognized the fact that, in fact, most of the US business cycle is due to nominal shocks interacting with sticky wages.”