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Kenneth Rogoff on Monetary Moves, Fiscal Gambits, and Classical Chess
30 Apr 2025 26 published claims 2 attributable people
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belief 11evaluation 9uncertainty 3prediction 2commitment 1
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The useful parts, with receipts.
26 published records
“Sure, but if they had higher price inflation, the value of the renminbi in real terms would fall somewhat, at least for a while, and that would be better, which means the current rate is somewhat higher than it ought to be.”
- Publisher
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“If you did 20 percent tariff on the whole world, to a first approximation, your exchange rate goes up 10 percent the dollar and that rebalances everything. That brings the cost of their goods back to just the 10 percent rise, and it makes your exports 10 percent more expensive because the currency appreciated.”
- Publisher
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“I’m not saying I would’ve won. I think I would’ve lost if he kept playing, but it just happened.”
- Publisher
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“With classical chess, not every game, but most games, I feel I can look at the board and have a decent idea of what’s going on. I might be wrong, but even then, I can figure out ex post why I was wrong.”
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“Now, you must have been out of practice, but I believe you drew Magnus in a game of speed chess in 2012.”
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“There’s drug dealing, human smuggling, and everything, human trafficking, but I think the large majority of it is tax evasion.”
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“I think he has a 30 percent or 40 percent chance of being not a truly dominant player, but say the way Anand or Kramnik were at their peak.”
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“In most countries, the currency that we think of, the physical currency, is just a little piece of the animal.”
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“To a first approximation, if we put on a — I don’t know, whatever it is — 20 percent tariff, it has an effect on our exchange rate of making it go up, which makes our exports more expensive and makes their goods less expensive.”
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“There are different kinds of stablecoins, and it’s not clear where it’s ending up in the long run, but I think stablecoins eventually have to have some kind of parallel revealability to what bank accounts have.”
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“I don’t think there’s any question every politician in the world, if they have the power, tries to goose up the economy before it happens. I think empirically, it’s overwhelming that it’s true.”
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“I think for some countries, they’re so deep into dollar debt, they’re so connected with the dollar and trade, they do worry about their exchange rate.”
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“Kasparov might have been the better player, but just willing to put his entire mental energy into over-the-board analysis, sitting there. I think that’s part of the Fischer legend.”
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“I think that’s a very, very powerful theory of part of why debt builds up is, whoever is in power says, “Don’t pay any attention to it.”
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“I don’t know if you remember, it’s hard to imagine, but he actually used to be weak at rook endings, weak for somebody like that.”
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“I’m being naive, but is there an insurer who’s going to bail out the Barbados banking system? I think our regulators would make that difficult.”
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“I don’t know that all his libertarian visions necessarily will come to pass, but he’s provided some stability, bringing inflation down.”
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“I think the current account deficit — that’s a broader measure of the deficit — it’s important, and if it’s really large, you can probably bet that it might go down, but it’s not something to try to wrestle to the ground.”
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“Again, this key thing is that real interest rates, the interest rate adjusted for expected inflation — and I’m looking at the long term — they’ve come up. They’re not super high, but they’re more like they were in the early 2000s, and, I think, of reasonable projections, they’re going to stay around the level they are now.”
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“I think in the United States, a lot of the choices, I’m sorry to say, probably point towards higher taxation because we’re hardly running a welfare state.”
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“Now, they’re talking about cutting pensions, cutting old age benefits because suddenly, they’re having to make interest payments on the debt, and it’s hard.”
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“I worked on that early in my life. I wrote the first paper on why you should have an independent central bank.”
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“I know that for years, people have said the US debt is unsustainable, but it hasn’t come to roost because we’ve lived through this post-financial crisis, post-pandemic era of very, very low and negative real interest rates.”
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“I think there are many variables where assuming there’s going to be some reversion to mean is just a pretty good thing to have in the back of your head.”
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“I think the way to research the past 10 or 15 years has been that the exchange rate moves a lot but it’s not suddenly moving around the economy with it.”
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“It sounds great to say, “We just lent the money to Pakistan.” But I think in general, in money we’re giving to developing countries, too much of it comes in the form of loans, and it distorts what we do because we don’t get them all repaid.”
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