Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedKenneth Rogoff: evaluation
30 Apr 2025 Conversations with Tyler Kenneth Rogoff on Monetary Moves, Fiscal Gambits, and Classical Chess
“If you did 20 percent tariff on the whole world, to a first approximation, your exchange rate goes up 10 percent the dollar and that rebalances everything. That brings the cost of their goods back to just the 10 percent rise, and it makes your exports 10 percent more expensive because the currency appreciated.”
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Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Kenneth Rogoff
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 30 Apr 2025
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Absolutely. If you did 20 percent tariff on the whole world, to a first approximation, your exchange rate goes up 10 percent the dollar and that rebalances everything. That brings the cost of their goods back to just the 10 percent rise, and it makes your exports 10 percent more expensive because the currency appreciated. That’s definitely an effect. Of course, they’re probably going to retaliate, and then that cancels it out. But do they want to retaliate? Don’t they prefer the outcome where the tariff approach is some kind of neutrality, given that they have an overvalued currency right now? They could have a decline, basically be insulated from the tariff, not have to worry about Trump so much anymore. Why should they retaliate?…
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