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Kenneth Rogoff

Published podcast speaker

Claims
21
Episodes
1
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Kenneth said.

21 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

If you did 20 percent tariff on the whole world, to a first approximation, your exchange rate goes up 10 percent the dollar and that rebalances everything. That brings the cost of their goods back to just the 10 percent rise, and it makes your exports 10 percent more expensive because the currency appreciated.

“If you did 20 percent tariff on the whole world, to a first approximation, your exchange rate goes up 10 percent the dollar and that rebalances everything. That brings the cost of their goods back to just the 10 percent rise, and it makes your exports 10 percent more expensive because the currency appreciated.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / uncertainty

To a first approximation, if we put on a — I don’t know, whatever it is — 20 percent tariff, it has an effect on our exchange rate of making it go up, which makes our exports more expensive and makes their goods less expensive.

“To a first approximation, if we put on a — I don’t know, whatever it is — 20 percent tariff, it has an effect on our exchange rate of making it go up, which makes our exports more expensive and makes their goods less expensive.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

06 / belief

There are different kinds of stablecoins, and it’s not clear where it’s ending up in the long run, but I think stablecoins eventually have to have some kind of parallel revealability to what bank accounts have.

“There are different kinds of stablecoins, and it’s not clear where it’s ending up in the long run, but I think stablecoins eventually have to have some kind of parallel revealability to what bank accounts have.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

07 / belief

I don’t think there’s any question every politician in the world, if they have the power, tries to goose up the economy before it happens. I think empirically, it’s overwhelming that it’s true.

“I don’t think there’s any question every politician in the world, if they have the power, tries to goose up the economy before it happens. I think empirically, it’s overwhelming that it’s true.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / belief

I think for some countries, they’re so deep into dollar debt, they’re so connected with the dollar and trade, they do worry about their exchange rate.

“I think for some countries, they’re so deep into dollar debt, they’re so connected with the dollar and trade, they do worry about their exchange rate.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / evaluation

I think the current account deficit — that’s a broader measure of the deficit — it’s important, and if it’s really large, you can probably bet that it might go down, but it’s not something to try to wrestle to the ground.

“I think the current account deficit — that’s a broader measure of the deficit — it’s important, and if it’s really large, you can probably bet that it might go down, but it’s not something to try to wrestle to the ground.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / prediction

Again, this key thing is that real interest rates, the interest rate adjusted for expected inflation — and I’m looking at the long term — they’ve come up. They’re not super high, but they’re more like they were in the early 2000s, and, I think, of reasonable projections, they’re going to stay around the level they are now.

“Again, this key thing is that real interest rates, the interest rate adjusted for expected inflation — and I’m looking at the long term — they’ve come up. They’re not super high, but they’re more like they were in the early 2000s, and, I think, of reasonable projections, they’re going to stay around the level they are now.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / evaluation

I think in the United States, a lot of the choices, I’m sorry to say, probably point towards higher taxation because we’re hardly running a welfare state.

“I think in the United States, a lot of the choices, I’m sorry to say, probably point towards higher taxation because we’re hardly running a welfare state.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

16 / evaluation

Now, they’re talking about cutting pensions, cutting old age benefits because suddenly, they’re having to make interest payments on the debt, and it’s hard.

“Now, they’re talking about cutting pensions, cutting old age benefits because suddenly, they’re having to make interest payments on the debt, and it’s hard.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

18 / evaluation

I know that for years, people have said the US debt is unsustainable, but it hasn’t come to roost because we’ve lived through this post-financial crisis, post-pandemic era of very, very low and negative real interest rates.

“I know that for years, people have said the US debt is unsustainable, but it hasn’t come to roost because we’ve lived through this post-financial crisis, post-pandemic era of very, very low and negative real interest rates.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / prediction

I think there are many variables where assuming there’s going to be some reversion to mean is just a pretty good thing to have in the back of your head.

“I think there are many variables where assuming there’s going to be some reversion to mean is just a pretty good thing to have in the back of your head.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / evaluation

I think the way to research the past 10 or 15 years has been that the exchange rate moves a lot but it’s not suddenly moving around the economy with it.

“I think the way to research the past 10 or 15 years has been that the exchange rate moves a lot but it’s not suddenly moving around the economy with it.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / evaluation

It sounds great to say, “We just lent the money to Pakistan.” But I think in general, in money we’re giving to developing countries, too much of it comes in the form of loans, and it distorts what we do because we don’t get them all repaid.

“It sounds great to say, “We just lent the money to Pakistan.” But I think in general, in money we’re giving to developing countries, too much of it comes in the form of loans, and it distorts what we do because we don’t get them all repaid.”
Speaker
Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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