Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedKenneth Rogoff: belief
30 Apr 2025 Conversations with Tyler Kenneth Rogoff on Monetary Moves, Fiscal Gambits, and Classical Chess
“I don’t think there’s any question every politician in the world, if they have the power, tries to goose up the economy before it happens. I think empirically, it’s overwhelming that it’s true.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Kenneth Rogoff
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 30 Apr 2025
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…You wrote a famous 1987 paper on political business cycle theory. How relevant do you think political business cycles have been since then? Well, there’ve been a lot of papers on it. I don’t think there’s any question every politician in the world, if they have the power, tries to goose up the economy before it happens. I think empirically, it’s overwhelming that it’s true. The question is, why does it fool anyone? Everybody should understand why that’s going on. Without going into details, that paper was about the paradox that I know you’re just making things look good. I know you’re hiding something from me, so that you’re exaggerating how long this can go on, how much it’s costing, but I’m going to vote for you anyway. That’s what that paper was. It looked at it as a signaling model that’s getting really wonky. The fiscal versions of political business cycle theory — they don’t have to fool anyone. You do get the money, and society as a whole has to pay it back, but you can come out ahead.…
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