hardware / owns
Rimowa suitcase
“It's similar, but I bought a Rimowa suitcase this year and I love it. It's just a suitcase, but I love it.”
Public evidence record
Host · Acquired
Books, apps, and tools
hardware / owns
“It's similar, but I bought a Rimowa suitcase this year and I love it. It's just a suitcase, but I love it.”
app / uses
“Yeah. Scoping just to ride share now that we have Waymo in San Francisco, I use Waymo in scenarios where I would never use an Uber or a Lyft.”
service / uses
“Scoping just to ride share now that we have Waymo in San Francisco, I use Waymo in scenarios where I would never use an Uber or a Lyft.”
app / likes
“Yes, Keyhole and Google Earth (I think) is my favorite part of our first Google episode earlier this year.”
app / likes
“I think I talked before on the Meta episode about how much I love Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist before that.”
app / likes
“I think I talked before on the Meta episode about how much I love Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist before that.”
app / uses
“I listen to so much music all the time on Winamp, it should just know what I like and automatically pick the next song.”
hardware / uses
“I used AirPods for years and years and they’re great, but if you sleep on your side or do anything you know you got the AirPod jamming into your ears.”
app / avoids
“Honestly, this is why I don't use ChatGPT for acquired work, I feel like we need to be a hundred percent all the time.”
other / uses
“Two on some holiday travel flights, I think recommended by an Acquired listener, actually, I watched the Blackberry movie.”
book / uses
“I have to give you a big thank you, because over the last couple of weeks since your recommendation, I have read the book Wool, which is the first in the series that is the Silo series on Apple TV+, because I'm more of a book guy than a TV guy.”
other / likes
“That's why Nike is my favorite episode, because I feel like this way of thinking about what we do finally clicked for me.”
Claim ledger
500 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
“I built this whole door. I got the blank door from Home Depot. I had to cut it down to size to fit a nonstandard size door opening in my studio.”
02 / belief
“Bob, and he recounts all of this in Ride of a Lifetime, comes up with, I think, one of the most brilliant campaign framings that I have ever heard.”
03 / commitment
“Everybody remembers what just happened to the music industry with Napster. Bob is saying, no, we are going to embrace technology.”
04 / belief
“Like himself? But I think really, like, what this is really about and Roy's superpower for Disney was that even if he wasn't, you know, the best executive or leader or in touch with the marketplace, as evidenced by the total flop of "Fantasia 2000.”
05 / belief
“The whole thing feels like a high-wire act. And right when we got to Snow White's box office numbers, we realized that a bunch of authoritative sources listed $8 million as the revenue for Snow White's box office in its original release.”
06 / belief
“I think consumers have had some version of that complaint about Disney, ever since Michael Eisner took over in 1984.”
07 / belief
“Iron Man had come out. I think a couple of others. And had been hits, but nobody could see what Marvel would end up becoming under Disney.”
08 / observation
“Jack Dorsey happens to also be on the Disney board at the time. So they basically get all the way to a deal.”
09 / uncertainty
“I guess in theory, like Nabisco was going to get some advertising synergies for their CPG products? I don't know.”
10 / commitment
“We're going to stand and fight toe to toe. We are going to build our own direct-to-consumer streaming company.”
11 / uncertainty
“Again, I don't know that I actually could come up with a different, better strategy.”
12 / belief
“I would argue, again, very different dynamics, but the same version of the story.”
13 / belief
“Yep. So heading into 2022, Bob Chapek does a reorg, basically reorging the entire company around the streaming strategy, consolidates all the studios altogether into one reporting segment, Disney Media, I think, D-Med.”
14 / belief
“I think really it was another version of the same thesis of Pixar, which was there are great stories and storytellers here and let's give them a bigger canvas to paint on.”
15 / belief
“Yep. Well, I think that is probably the perfect tee-up to transition to analysis.”
16 / belief
“Starwave was basically a web developer that they, I think, paid a couple hundred million dollars for.”
17 / belief
“One of his first calls after he gets the news on, I think, a Sunday afternoon is to Steve Jobs, the then CEO of Pixar, in addition to being the CEO of Apple.”
18 / belief
“You said, quote, "One reason to doubt it—it being Disney+—is, I think, Disney may be underestimating just how much content people need to stay satiated.”
19 / belief
“One of the first things they do that ends up, I think, really setting up all the following success that Eisner and Wells and Katzenberg have is they raise the ticket prices at Disneyland and Disney World.”
20 / belief
“I think you can make an argument that ABC fits in with The Walt Disney Company and the Disney flywheel.”
21 / observation
“The only way for a company like Disney to hope to try and still be relevant is to go back to making the very best content.”
22 / belief
“Yep. And I think Steve is so surprised that it opens the door and it leads to this great relationship between the two of them.”
23 / belief
“Even more than that, I think for a lot of startup cable networks, the dollars went the other way.”
24 / belief
“Vis-à-vis streaming, I suspect part of that analysis also led them to the conclusion that, hey, our library just isn't strong enough to be compelling as a streaming product.”
25 / evaluation
“Honestly, for Roy and for Stanley and their Save Disney Campaign, it was the best thing that could have happened because to many people, they look at this and they're like, how low has The Walt Disney Company fallen?”
26 / evaluation
“But also Michael made one of the greatest acquisitions of all time in the second 10 years. And because of all the drama, doesn't get anywhere near enough credit for it.”
27 / prediction
“It doesn't matter because the next year Nabisco gets taken private by KKR in the Barbarians at the Gate, you know, largest deal in history.”
28 / prediction
“Yep. I still think it probably doesn't work. And the reason is the algorithms. Netflix is not the movie theater.”
29 / belief
“Gabler, I think, was the only author who had full access to the Disney archives, and all the research he did for that book is just incredible.”
30 / observation
“I kinda suspect the way that a relationship between Disney and Nintendo, the only way it could work would be if one of them buys the other.”
31 / uncertainty
“I don't know that, like, we can really trust that this isn't just a fad, that the future sound Mickeys are also gonna be a hit and that you can repeat the magic.”
32 / belief
“Yeah. And because it's Disney and part of Disneyland, we think, oh yeah, audio animatronics, like Disneyland.”
33 / belief
“Again, I think the novelty of cartoons plus live animation, audiences are entertained for a few years.”
34 / belief
“Walt also, in his mind, I think, comes to see this Burbank campus as really a utopian-like place, kind of almost like a college campus.”
35 / belief
“I think most of the film profits from Snow White went to repay all the loans to Bank of America.”
36 / commitment
“Morgan in person, we will be on stage at the We Are Developers World Congress in San Jose this September.”
37 / belief
“Core Disney and Disney Animation and Pixar have been so disciplined over the years about metering out their content and the core delivery of that content on an infrequent enough basis that it doesn't dilute it. And Marvel, ironically, I think really is the counterexample here.”
38 / belief
“Yep. And I think there's something else too that only comes when you really fully embrace the flywheel business model and the trade-offs that it involves.”
39 / belief
“Yep, yep, yep. But I think for every other studio out there, their incentives have always been and are always going to be to release as much content as quickly as possible.”
40 / belief
“I have a fun bit of trivia for you, Ben. So as I think you know, Disney eventually does get the rights to Oswald back.”
41 / uncertainty
“I mean, it sort of sounds like a— I don't know if it's a utopian or a dystopian film or both.”
42 / belief
“I think more than anything else, like through Disney films and Looney Tunes and Warner Brothers, I was just sitting there like, man, I feel like I should be watching some animation right now.”
43 / belief
“Walt is like the original Steve Jobs, and I think you can definitely make the case that Ub is the Steve Wozniak.”
44 / belief
“The other story is that Walt always had a dream since he got to Hollywood of having his name up on a neon sign. And now that they have their own real studio, he wants a neon sign constructed that says the Walt Disney Studio, which I think does happen.”
45 / uncertainty
“Remember, this is at the same time as Disney is making short cartoons for like, I don't know, $20,000, $30,000.”
46 / belief
“In the better economics of not having to share too much on the back end or in merchandising fees, etc, with stars. And then I think really just like the ability of people to form deep, lasting relationships with the characters versus live action.”
47 / belief
“I think Iwerks had immense artistic talent as an animator and was able to do that.”
48 / belief
“I think the quote was, "Radio whets the appetite for attending baseball games live, and TV satiates it.”
49 / belief
“Now, there's a reason why the Screen Cartoonists Guild had stayed away from Disney despite it obviously being the leader in animation up until this point, which is I think Walt's utopian dream more or less was true, or at least true enough.”
50 / recommendation
“It's about Walt the person. Highly recommend going to see it next time you are in San Francisco.”
51 / evaluation
“There were no sound movie soundtrack albums before then, and it is a huge hit both because, you know, it's a great soundtrack, but like before this album, there was never anything that audiences could take home actually of the picture that they saw in theaters.”
52 / evaluation
“I think he really did recognize the incredible flywheel business model that he had sort of accidentally created and leaned into it.”
53 / evaluation
“Now, critically for Disney, and again, I think completely accidentally discovered by Walt, the IP that works best for flywheel dynamics almost has to be animated, i.”
54 / prediction
“Wow. So this means they're flying even closer to the sun than I realized because they've got the $8 million in sort of investments that they need to fund and they have $4.”
55 / prediction
“I said, Roy, this television thing can be the greatest thing because we will be going direct to the public.”
56 / belief
“Fidelity is very happy to have their 401(k) and brokerage account holders do what you do of just hold the Vanguard funds through ETFs. And I think Jack kind of foresaw this.”
57 / belief
“I mean, it's his quote from his memoir that I have right here: I realized that a mutual company would never provide me with the personal fortune that so many denizens of Wall Street would earn, but it offered, I believe, my last best chance to resume my career.”
58 / belief
“All that said, I totally agree. I think you need to be operating in a space such that you can access capital.”
59 / belief
“Yep. So in January 2019, Jack passes away at age 89 after just one of the most incredible lives, I think, of the 20th century into the 21st century.”
60 / commitment
“I don't exactly know the answer, but what I will tell you to bring us to today here is that 24 months, in May of 2024, Vanguard made another big CEO announcement that they were bringing on the first outside CEO in the firm's entire 50-year history, Salim Ramji, from BlackRock, where he was until that point in time, head of the iShares division.”
61 / belief
“All the proceeds from the book sales all go directly to the Bogle Family Foundation, where they get distributed to a whole variety of charities, including prominently the American Indian College Fund, which I think Jack was on the board of and was a huge supporter of during his life.”
62 / commitment
“Could be $1 million, could be $100 million, could be $5 trillion, as we will see approaching towards the end of the episode.”
63 / commitment
“There will still be costs. We will operate at cost, but we will forgo all profits.”
64 / commitment
“We won't experience the same kind of, you know, piano falling on our head losses as these naive index funds will.”
65 / belief
“Like, I think Morgan and everybody at Wellington and Jack absolutely did have their customers and the fund holders in mind and wanted to do a great job for them.”
66 / belief
“At the time, Fidelity is managing just $3 million, and the previous owners, who I think are, you know, retiring, they literally give Fidelity, the firm, to Edward Johnson for free.”
67 / belief
“I couldn't find the exact date, but I believe my grandparents must have become Vanguard clients either in the late '70s or early '80s when nobody was a Vanguard client.”
68 / belief
“All of which, of course, is like the very, very best marketing that, I would say buy, you can't even possibly buy marketing like this.”
69 / belief
“I think one time he collapsed and had a heart attack waiting for the commuter train out of Philadelphia, and he was lying there on the ground, and the ambulance and the paramedics came, and he makes a bet with them that they won't get him to the hospital in time to save his life.”
70 / evaluation
“So yeah, I think, uh, I, I agree with Warren, and millions and millions and millions of people have had their financial lives changed because of him and would not have happened without him.”
71 / evaluation
“He also hates that because these funds will now be traded on an exchange, it means that you can short sell them.”
72 / evaluation
“Which is absolutely hilarious because now index fund licensing is basically the entire business of indices around the world, and it is extremely high-margin.”
73 / belief
“I think that actually might be the strategy today. Back then with the 166, there was demand for a lot more than 101.”
74 / belief
“I think we got to scope it to companies that make products that are nominally available for purchase by consumers, but yes.”
75 / uncertainty
“I don't know enough to say, but I would suspect it's probably about as healthy as you can be.”
76 / belief
“Luca does, but he goes day to day to Turin and kinda closer to the Agnelli empire. And I think Enzo thinks that he's gonna still have a spy now in Fiat with Luca, which maybe he does, maybe he doesn't.”
77 / belief
“Now, legends would say later, and Luigi, I think, would probably perpetuate this himself, that Luigi is the one who convinced Enzo to abandon the machine tools business and focus only on cars again after World War II.”
78 / belief
“Sergio gets them out of the partnership and engineers GM paying $2 billion to Fiat in order to end the partnership. And I think without that $2 billion, the company almost certainly would have died.”
79 / belief
“I think Luca probably had zero interest in taking Ferrari public, and I think he had even less than zero interest in using proceeds from the Ferrari IPO and the other financial engineering that we're about to talk about to save Chrysler and Fiat.”
80 / commitment
“The shield reflects his intention to do battle on the racetrack, and the Italian colors reflect the ultimate ambition to establish this team, this company, and its future cars as the Italian national team, and sports car company. So in our research, I spoke to Luca di Montezemolo, the legendary Ferrari chairman who would ultimately succeed Enzo, and really in many ways be his heir, as we will tell in this story.”
81 / belief
“Making it announced to Wall Street like, oh, hey, we think the right thing to do next year is to cut our production by half.”
82 / belief
“I think so. Or at least he started it. It was really important to him that the factories be first rate.”
83 / belief
“I would never actually want to get behind the wheel of it, but I think I gotta go with the F40.”
84 / belief
“Luca goes out and recruits the dream team. I think the greatest set of F1 team members that had ever existed in history.”
85 / commitment
“Fiat announces to Wall Street as part of the merger, though, Sergio does, hey, we've got a plan. And we are going to reduce that from over $11 billion to $1 billion or less over the next 4 years by 2018.”
86 / belief
“Ben: It's funny, David, you know this, but I talked with the CEO Benedetto Vigna yesterday and he told me, we don't sell a car, we sell a dream. And I think that's an old Porsche line.”
87 / belief
“I think the really interesting thing to look at is how the Ferrari model range has evolved in the years since the IPO.”
88 / commitment
“Oh, yes, we will. So then the next year, Luigi Canetti, he's a real believer in the potential of these machines that Enzo is building to make a lot of money and generate a lot of desire.”
89 / belief
“The LaFerrari Halo car was the first fully in-house designed Ferrari. And during those 61 years, I believe every single road-going production Ferrari except for one, I think, was designed by Pininfarina.”
90 / commitment
“So, after Dino's death, Enzo stops going to races. It's sort of like a self-inflicted punishment that You know, if Dino can't be here with me to go to the races, then I will no longer travel to and go to the races, to my great, terrible joys.”
91 / evaluation
“I think I would posit that there are no other Ferraris because of the continuity.”
92 / belief
“I think at the end of the day, though, I maintained that we can debate the semantics of luxury products, price points, et cetera.”
93 / belief
“Big thank you to James Dowling, co-author of The Best of Time, which is I think probably we went through all the big coffee table books on Rolex and probably the best one out there.”
94 / belief
“I think maybe the more interesting question is, rewind back to the lifestyle era, post–World War II when they’re launching all the professional watches, the sport watches.”
95 / belief
“I think he’s probably known and respected in the industry, but wasn’t a large player.”
96 / belief
“I suspect that this is part of the reason not to have gone directly into retail.”
97 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if it’s worth $200 billion, but it’s worth $100-plus billion, zero doubt in my mind.”
98 / uncertainty
“Patek also, at least now, I don’t know if it was the case back then, they’re in a very different part of the market than Rolex.”
99 / observation
“Anyway the point is, from 1962 until 1995, if you like James Bond and you wanted to have a little bit of James Bond in your life too, then you wanted to wear a Submariner on your wrist.”
100 / belief
““To my longtime friend, René Jeanneret,” who I believe was Rolex head of communications at the time, “who enabled me to always be on time.”
101 / belief
“Then in the 1980s when the Italian thing happens, the Paul Newman thing happens, and the collector’s market gets built, I think the first real big move that Rolex makes into the luxury world.”
102 / uncertainty
“All over magazines across America. Maybe the world, too, I don’t know. It’s incredible.”
103 / uncertainty
“Now, I don’t know exactly what the Swiss Franc to US Dollar exchange rate was at 1900, but today the Swiss Franc is stronger than the dollar.”
104 / belief
“I believe at some point, Rolex starts actually testing their watches to significantly greater depth than what is advertised for this reason.”
105 / belief
“I don’t think it’s worth much detail, but I think actually for a long time the fake market was great for Rolex.”
106 / belief
“His second wife, Betty, loved the Datejust, and still to this day, the Lady Datejust (I believe) is the single best-selling model in the Rolex catalog.”
107 / belief
“In 1953, he’s filming the documentary, The Silent World, in the Mediterranean Sea that is going to go on to win the Oscar, the Academy Award for best documentary (I think) in 1956.”
108 / evaluation
“You could throw it to the bottom of the ocean and it’ll keep time forever, et cetera. Like, oh, this is why this is important.”
109 / belief
“Just that Rolex certainly was, and I’m sure probably still is the most faked, certainly watch brand if not any brand in the world. I think that was good for them, not so much recently.”
110 / belief
“Now is a good time (I think) to bring up, there’s one more piece of Rolex the corporation and the story, which for the longest time (I think) both of us were totally puzzled by.”
111 / belief
“I’m sure there are some people, but I think for a lot of people who love Rolex, they’re also going to own a Panerai or they’re going to own a whatever, and that doesn’t hurt their relationship with Rolex.”
112 / belief
“Even to this day, I believe the market of buyers for Rolex watches is basically 50/50 men and women.”
113 / belief
“As waitlist management becomes more important, I think that becomes more critical.”
114 / evaluation
“Again, because of the way the market works, it doesn’t matter that that’s a very small number of people.”
115 / belief
“Kodak, I believe, was the first invented product brand name, and it was a name that meant nothing.”
116 / belief
“Hermès didn’t, and Rolex followed this exact playbook over the last 10 years of not price-gauging themselves out of the market, but intentionally limiting supply, letting the secondary market go nuts, and then but keeping an even keel for themselves. Now that there’s been a bit of a reset, they’re stronger than ever I think.”
117 / uncertainty
“I don’t know that André and they were thinking about it necessarily as luxury yet—and it’s not really luxury yet, it’s much more lifestyle at this point in time; it would later become luxury—but this is his real, real genius.”
118 / belief
“I think if that were the only factor, Rolex probably would’ve stayed in England.”
119 / belief
“The reason I think that Rolex is a luxury company extraordinaire is managing the market as opposed to participating in it.”
120 / commitment
“We will happily come to Geneva and talk to you about it. Okay, so Ben, as you were saying though, the Datejust.”
121 / evaluation
“There are so many of these moments in Rolex history, really in all the stories we tell, where the company does everything in their power to align the stars perfectly and it doesn’t work.”
122 / belief
“I think that probably rarely happens, but to Hans’s original vision of I want everybody to be able to own a Rolex, this is the way that they can have that happen.”
123 / belief
“One of his maniacal control things was, I believe, up until he died or pretty close to it, he did all the creative for all the advertisement.”
124 / belief
“Ultimately, after the war in 1919, Hans moves both himself and the official company headquarters to Geneva, where of course it still is to this day. And even to this day—this is crazy—design, sales, marketing, and (I think) final assembly all happen in Geneva while production of the movement still happens up in the mountains in Bienne.”
125 / evaluation
“Rolex is completely in control. They could sell their products for much, much more than they do, and they do not because it is the right long-term decision to do so.”
126 / belief
“I think if at least you buy the premise that if they were to operate their own retail locations, they would be pushed by customers to have more things in those stores than just the six or seven core Rolex models, which you probably can’t walk out of the store holding one of them anyway.”
127 / belief
“Then at some point in time—could be a couple of months, could be a couple of years—you’ll get the call that your model is available. The Daytona is (I think) the only model where there is no waitlist.”
128 / uncertainty
“Talk to me about terroir. I know exactly what you’re talking about, but établissage, I don’t know.”
129 / evaluation
“Created the modern watch collector market. And all of the crazy prices, auctions, and insanity that occurs today, (I think) you can say really is all because of the Daytona.”
130 / evaluation
“IMG was the first modern talent celebrity endorsement agency, and really visionary of Mark McCormack to have founded in 1960.”
131 / evaluation
“Rolex was better positioned than most of the other Swiss companies because they had already transitioned to lifestyle.”
132 / preference
“I think the Birkin bag is a really good comp for it because pricewise, they’re actually pretty similar.”
133 / belief
“All of these innovations, even though Sol came up with them, as these other companies are scaling and I think particularly Kmart, they don't really have the large scale operational expertise, nor the access to capital to really fend off the competition.”
134 / belief
“I didn't learn a lot, I learned everything. Absolutely everything I know, I learned from Sol.”
135 / belief
“Part of the enormous diaspora of retailers that come out of not only FedMart but Price Club, Jim Sinegal, I think, was probably locked up at FedMart under new management for a while.”
136 / belief
“I think the origins of this though start all the way back with the original Price Club business plan.”
137 / belief
“I think Costco has incredible counter positioning power today as a large incumbent in a way that they did not have when they got started.”
138 / belief
“I think I'm going to quote Charlie on this one and say, I have nothing more to add.”
139 / belief
“You are very much paying for the convenience of shopping on Amazon, I think on almost every product these days.”
140 / belief
“We're going to clone the Price Club model and start the same thing up in Seattle. Again, I think Sol is totally fine with this.”
141 / belief
“One of the best podcast episodes this period all year, I think, especially because we know Jeremy pretty well from Tiny, and we know Patrick very well.”
142 / belief
“What I think also, back to the membership, it all comes back to member trust. The members have to trust that they are going to get the absolute best price on everything and that Costco isn't going to be playing these games.”
143 / belief
“Mann literally fires Sol, I think and Robert, too, and changes the locks on their office doors.”
144 / belief
“I think what's interesting to talk about next is, okay, everybody knows how this all works.”
145 / belief
“I think by the time they actually launched it, they had relocated to Issaquah, a little farther south.”
146 / belief
“While we're talking about the people here, I think a related but separate playbook theme is truly the promoting from within culture there.”
147 / belief
“I think for the items again, the non-staples, the treasure hunt type items, they intentionally want to run out so that they're not going to be there next time you come.”
148 / belief
“If I remember from our Walmart episode, Walmart (I think) has over 2 million employees.”
149 / belief
“Interestingly, the transaction really is about as close to a merger of equals as I think we've ever seen on the show, with the caveat that Jim is clearly going to be the CEO that's going to run the combined company.”
150 / belief
“I think Walmart has basically decided, look, we're not going to kill the Sam's Club business, but this is not where we're focusing our competitive energies right now.”
151 / belief
“If we have a small number of additional ooh, ahh, and wow, one time items, such that every time as a member you come into the store, there's something new and different for you to find and buy at a really low price, that would drive repeat traffic and make coming to Costco more of a novelty, more of an entertainment event. Today, I think about 25% of their SKUs are these treasure hunt items.”
152 / belief
“The individual warehouses these days, you may have the stats exactly, but I think an average Costco warehouse generates over $200 million in revenue, and the top ones generate three $400 million of revenue for a single store.”
153 / prediction
“What's interesting is I think at the time, I suspect there were very few other Western style, globally aspiring retailers that were entering Asian markets, because it's not exactly obvious that a huge warehouse with bulk packaging would work in cultures like (say) Japan, where people live in tightly packed, dense urban environments, much smaller houses and apartments than in America.”
154 / prediction
“Had this not gone down like this, I think Sol probably would have just retired as new management, took over at FedMart, and all would have been amicable.”
155 / recommendation
“Well, first off, we owe a huge thank you to Joshua Robinson and Jonathan Clegg, who are the sports editors over at The Wall Street Journal, and just recently published, I think the best business history book of Formula 1 called The Formula.”
156 / belief
“I think there's a related bull case of a champion or champion level female driver emerging in the coming years.”
157 / belief
“One thing that I think you could have argued a couple of years ago was a bear case, but I think has been put to rest is this was a COVID-driven fad.”
158 / belief
“Today, I think every single F1 team is worth at least one and a half billion, I think is the floor.”
159 / belief
“Not just an entrepreneur. I think you need somebody truly with Bernie's background.”
160 / belief
“The offering I believe was intended to be $2 billion but there was not enough demand and Morgan Stanley could only rustle up 1.”
161 / belief
“I think you could maybe even argue they are the only legitimate luxury brand established in the second half of the 20th century.”
162 / commitment
“We're still loyal to McLaren. But we will give you an engine so that you can compete with your team this season and not shut it down.”
163 / belief
“Totally, mortal danger was actually, I think, a core part of the appeal of the sport in those early days.”
164 / commitment
“You give me your rights for your team appearances, and I will go fight with these race promoters, many of whom are probably gangsters themselves, and I will get us the best collective deal.”
165 / observation
“The purchase price that Red Bull paid was one British pound to establish Red Bull Racing. Now, the problem is they still got to make the team good.”
166 / belief
“Also gets purchased for one British pound. And listeners, I suspect unless you are a hardcore F1 fan, you probably will not be able to guess what team this is.”
167 / belief
“" I don't think Atlassian has a physical executive briefing center. I think F1 and the paddock club is their executive briefing center.”
168 / belief
“Oracle's CMO said, I believe on an earnings call that Drive to Survive was the reason that they decided to get into F1 and do the big Red Bull sponsorship.”
169 / belief
“Back to your point earlier about Red Bull strategy, they could be making much more, I think.”
170 / commitment
“We are going to help you guys institute a cost cap on manufacturing and we'll help you design it.”
171 / commitment
“Liberty says, will you please show all of the F1 races on the calendar on ESPN? We will give it to you for zero dollars.”
172 / belief
“Team owner, race promoter, official FIA representative, and of course, CEO and owner of FOPA and de facto, the league itself. And I think at every point in time, he was always in at least two, if not three or four of those roles simultaneously.”
173 / belief
“Compared to, I believe, over three billion that Bernie and his trust had pulled out of the company through all the debt and equity machinations that we discussed earlier.”
174 / belief
“I believe still to this day, Ayrton Senna's funeral in Brazil is the largest attended public funeral in history.”
175 / belief
“Here's why I was going with the second reason why I think you needed a Bernie. The global nature of the sport, the insane logistics required to be operating a global sport, the idea that an employee, that the teams, the F1 teams, could have gotten together and hired an employee like the NFL did with Pete Rozelle to go and create all this.”
176 / uncertainty
“I don't know what percentage of that doubling is attributable to Drive to Survive, but it's not 10%, it's probably more like 80%.”
177 / belief
“At a minimum, I think you absolutely needed a strong individual personality to emerge at the right moment in time.”
178 / belief
“We should note here, for folks who are not deep F1 fans, I think maybe the only part of F1 cars that is common mandated across the whole league.”
179 / belief
“Of course, what we're getting at is they end up with, I think, the most impactful piece of sports media in history.”
180 / evaluation
“Obviously, there is this incredible counter example out there with the NFL of a similar dynamic, arguably a much more complicated dynamic because there were a lot more teams in the NFL that needed to be wrangled.”
181 / evaluation
“We should also note here too, we being a little glib in this episode, in 2023, Bernie ultimately pleaded guilty to tax fraud as a result of all the machinations] we're about to talk about and had to pay a 653 million pound payment to the crown in back taxes and fines. And he also received a, I think 17 month jail sentence, which was then suspended, probably in large part to his advanced age.”
182 / evaluation
“I can't imagine any other sport that is anywhere near as complex as this. And so you've had this crazy history as a result, but it's still been durable because nobody else could pull all of these disparate parties together in the way that Formula 1 has managed to.”
183 / preference
“I like being able to look someone in the eye and then shake them by the hand rather than do it the American way with 92 page contracts that no one reads or understands.”
184 / evaluation
“He actually renews the European Broadcasting Union deal for another three year term to sort of keep growing the sport and not value maximize just yet because he doesn't want a lot of money to start going to the other organizations.”
185 / evaluation
“The Red Bull entrance into F1 was so perfectly timed because this is right as the EU regulation is coming online, forcing tobacco finally out of the sport.”
186 / evaluation
“What Braun realized, maybe not first, but I think better than anybody, was the dynamic we talked about earlier, that after the FAA started clamping down so much on the rules, the way to win was to exploit loopholes.”
187 / belief
“We don't need to go into a bunch of the specifics, but I think like from the acquired standpoint and the NFL audience standpoint, this was a major, major trust-breaking moment.”
188 / belief
“You can't trust those valuations. I think any actual trade would have to be higher than that.”
189 / uncertainty
“Acquired as part of the gloss and sheen. If you had told us that three years ago, I don't know what we would have said.”
190 / belief
“For a long time, this ownership structure and ownership code was actually, I think, a key part to the NFL strategy working.”
191 / belief
“Indeed, baseball had a lot to lose. And to be fair to all of them, in the early days, and I think for a long time, local market home television airing of home games absolutely depressed in-person attendance.”
192 / uncertainty
“I don't know mechanically and legally how this actually works, but in practice, this is exactly what it is.”
193 / belief
“I think Lamar was like, "Oh, it's just kind of a funny placeholder name." But then it just stuck.”
194 / belief
“I think that's probably right. For those networks, for the last decade, run the counterfactual of the networks no longer had football.”
195 / belief
“I believe Travis Kelsey is the active NFL player for now with the highest number of Instagram followers these days.”
196 / uncertainty
“Yeah, and I don't know if this is directly related, but I think so much of the '70s and the '80s and the '90s were also about just like the continued growth trajectory of the incredible marriage of the NFL and television.”
197 / belief
“I think if I remember it, the core thesis of our NBA episode is what they got so right through the social media era was give the players the voice, give the players the platform.”
198 / belief
“Rozelle will remain the commissioner and Al Davis is going to go back to running the Raiders, which Davis is fine with, that's all he really wanted anyway. Not announced, but included, this I believe only came out much, much later.”
199 / belief
“Pretty immediately the courts strike down this deal and there's about, I think a one to two month period where it's all in limbo.”
200 / belief
“I think there's definitely scale economies here in the sports entertainment aspect of the product.”
201 / belief
“I think related to that is one, basketball definitely won the social media era in a way, not as to as big a degree as the NFL won the TV era, but basketball's on the rise.”
202 / commitment
“Now it doesn't actually come down to a vote, but just by virtue of having that leverage in 2023, Snyder finally steps down, stops fighting and says, okay, I will bow to the pressure and initiate a sale process here.”
203 / belief
“Paul Brown was the first modern, not just football coach, but I think sports coach period in America.”
204 / belief
“The distance between Jim Thorpe as an athlete and any other athlete in the world at that point in time was greater than I think that distance has ever been since.”
205 / evaluation
“NFL players wear helmets, basketball players don't wear helmet. That's little stuff, but it doesn't matter as a business, NFL's fine.”
206 / evaluation
“I think actually, I don't know if we said this upfront, I'm pretty sure the NFL is the largest single media business in the world.”
207 / evaluation
“NFL is a league, great, they're fine. But the players, I think other league players and especially the NBA have been able to build wealth and businesses and revenue streams much better than NFL players because they're the platform and the audience value accrues to them so much more.”
208 / prediction
“LeBron, I think is already a billionaire. And especially once his playing days are over, he will be a multi billionaire because of the influence that he has.”
209 / evaluation
“On any given Sunday, any team in the league should be able to beat any other team. And he pushes this through with the owners and gets them all to agree to this, like, hey, the only way we're going to survive and prosper is if we agree that none of our teams can get so dominant that we end up with a Cleveland Browns situation.”
210 / recommendation
“It's similar, but I bought a Rimowa suitcase this year and I love it. It's just a suitcase, but I love it.”
211 / recommendation
“Everything needs to pass through multiple cycles of source material through my brain, through my fingers, onto a keyboard, and recycle back through about three times. I don't use AI note taking.”
212 / commitment
“We did four really just incredible interviews with the CEOs of Netflix, Perplexity, AWS, and JP Morgan Payments. I will say, Ben, it was extra special in retrospect.”
213 / commitment
“We will never lose money for our investors ever. We will do everything we can possibly do to make this fund in the black.”
214 / belief
“I think news just came out today that Bluey is coming to Animal Kingdom in Disney World in 2026.”
215 / belief
“I think on average it's 27, so some skews are selling in two days that they're turning.”
216 / belief
“I think a lot of people think it is an analytical industry, you're learning all about the company, you're doing diligence.”
217 / belief
“I think we told them about the episode. I tell them all them like, you guys got some magic here.”
218 / belief
“I think there are two different things that we're talking about here. One is milking the market, yes or no.”
219 / belief
“We put all this work into finding the best partners for our sponsors in every category that we think are great.”
220 / belief
“I think the whole business side and there's a lot of the content too, but the whole business side of Acquired starts with we were venture capitalists.”
221 / belief
“I repressed this deep down. If I'm honest with myself, I think I felt like a fraud as a VC.”
222 / uncertainty
“I got the sense from The Undoing Project that Kahneman and Tversky's relationship was very intense. I don't know that I would describe our relationship as intense.”
223 / prediction
“We carve out one or multiple chunks that Ben will take, and then Ben is responsible for the analysis.”
224 / belief
“If Michael Lewis Inc, we want you to be a sponsor, I would say, we're not coming to pitch you, but we're deciding a year in advance.”
225 / belief
“I got to imagine for your subjects, and I think a big part of us too, is there's the truthy aspect, which is very important, but there's also the, this is going to be great.”
226 / belief
“I think the biggest reason Acquired works is how you started off the conversation.”
227 / belief
“I think we think about narrative structure, acts, and what a story is. When we're reading books sometimes, a lot of books, especially corporate history books are, this happened, then this happened, then this happened, and then this happened.”
228 / belief
“Speaking of sports, mine is The Glue Guys podcast, which I think we both went on this year, which actually was the origin of us meeting.”
229 / commitment
“I wrote my thesis on the history of Dom Perignon and the marketing history of Shakespeare.”
230 / recommendation
“I don't use AI note taking. I write physical notes and hard copy books. If I am not doing that, I feel like it's not going to work.”
231 / belief
“Pepsi, as we’ve discussed, up until Alfred Steele came in, had always been a seat of the pants school of hard knocks management–type company. This person who joins (I think) might have been the first MBA to join the company, and he was one of the very few, even college graduates.”
232 / uncertainty
“The truth is, we are not that dumb and we are not that smart.” I don’t know. It all seems pretty dumb to me.”
233 / observation
“If you weren’t selling alcohol, which had natural preservatives, the only way that you could buy and consume a drink that really wasn’t water or milk or something was fresh.”
234 / belief
“I can truthfully say that I haven’t seen smiles spread over a bunch of boys’ faces as they did when they saw Coca-Cola in this godforsaken place.” And then, “If anyone were to ask us what we are fighting for, we think half of us would answer the right to buy Coca-Cola again.”
235 / belief
“As best as I was able to read from a few different sources, I think roughly, once Coca-Cola starts being produced in that first decade, (call it) four or five glasses of Coca-Cola would be about the equivalent of a line of cocaine today.”
236 / commitment
“Cocaine was really, really in America in the 1880s, perhaps foreshadowing a little bit the 1980s in America, as we will get to later in the episode.”
237 / belief
“I think Pepsi really becomes the more interesting company than Coke for at least the next, (call it) 30–40 years here after World War II.”
238 / commitment
“What Roberto does when he becomes CEO is he says, Don, you are my partner in crime. We are going to run this company as a team.”
239 / belief
“Atlanta, I think might have been the first major city in America that institutes prohibition and becomes a dry town, no alcohol.”
240 / commitment
“Then third, and maybe most importantly, we are going to wholeheartedly embrace a revolutionary new advertising medium in technology: television.”
241 / belief
“I think there is today absolutely no value to the formula. There’s not just a thought exercise, there’s an actual conversation in the appendix of For God, Country, and Coca-Cola.”
242 / belief
“Previously, it was just done state by state, which I think is probably how Coca-Cola trademarked the script logo earlier than that might have just been in Georgia.”
243 / belief
“I think neither Pepsi nor Coke would be what they are today or be as great a product and company as they are today if it weren’t for the other one.”
244 / belief
“I believe the way it ends up coming down is technically yes what you said, Ben, but it applies to any bottler that serves retailers that are located near a military base, regardless of whether that bottler also serves civilian customers.”
245 / belief
“Back in 1967, a young Wharton MBA graduate joins Pepsi after a few years of working at IPG, the big ad agency which owned and I believe still owns McCann Erickson, parent Company of McCann.”
246 / belief
“I think there was an element of the context of the time that came out in 1929, same year as the stock market crash.”
247 / disagreement
“I would say, not that I disagree with anything you’re saying, this just reinforces for me, this business is all about scale economies.”
248 / commitment
“Man, I had not focused on this issue at all until doing the research. I am going to only buy can and glass bottles going forward.”
249 / observation
“Blue, yellow. The point is, there was no standardization. All of a sudden now, Coke’s got this huge, industrial imagery machine of not only advertisements in the Saturday Evening Post, but all the billboards, the signs, the point of sale merchandise, et cetera.”
250 / belief
“In our opinion, Coca-Cola could be classified as one of the essential morale building products for the boys in the service.”
251 / belief
“Don’s first job out of college, he worked for I believe a coffee company that ended up getting acquired by Coca-Cola, and that’s how he came into Coca-Cola.”
252 / belief
“The last one I would add is that other than software and technology products, this is the first real physical product I think we’ve ever studied on Acquired, where you can have both a low-selling price and high margins.”
253 / belief
“We have a new type of plastic that we have engineered—polyethylene terephthalate or PET—that we think would be great for this application.”
254 / belief
“Now, there have been great, incredible CEOs in Coca-Cola’s history—Candler, Woodruff, Goizueta. All of them have added on to what the Coca-Cola company is, I think.”
255 / evaluation
“Not only was this radical for any brand at the time, it was especially radical for the soft drink industry because Coke was not doing anything close to this.”
256 / evaluation
“Because in 1931, Lee, Woodruff and the Coca-Cola crew create what I think is unquestionably the greatest lifestyle advertising success in human history, where they manage to associate Santa Claus with Coca-Cola.”
257 / evaluation
“They sue Pepsi for trademark infringement. Pepsi-Cola, you can’t use the word cola.”
258 / evaluation
“Lee had already created a hit slogan for Coca-Cola in Christmas of 1922 with his ‘thirst knows no season’ campaign, which is a great phrase with a great ring to it, but was particularly good because Coke had a legacy of primarily being enjoyed in the summer.”
259 / prediction
“For a token contract price of $1, which Candler never collects, the Coca-Cola company will sell syrup to Thomas and Whitehead at a volume discount price of $1 per gallon, so even less than they are selling to the individual soda fountains out there because (I think) this is going to be a higher volume business.”
260 / observation
“Pretty much the only way that all other grocers could deal with COVID was Instacart or doing their own delivery, which Instacart actually powers a lot of now as a white-label service, which is fascinating.”
261 / belief
“Once I realized this, I was like, Oh my God, this is genius. They're doing what Joe's always done.”
262 / belief
“I think in this case, though, yeah, probably the fact that Theo Albrecht bought it when Joe needed to sell made a huge, huge, huge difference.”
263 / belief
“I kind of think, reading between the lines of some of the things some of his successors said about him and some of the stuff in his obituaries and press, I think he just really didn't want to travel.”
264 / uncertainty
“We don't know anybody in the grocery industry. Help us out. Ravi was incredibly helpful, including connecting me with Chris Rogers, the current CEO of Instacart.”
265 / belief
“The other critical thing I think about private label for Trader Joe's that fits into the next puzzle piece is the marketing strategy.”
266 / commitment
“Yep. But wine and spirits are the one big category left where it's mostly not private label, including Charles Shaw, as we will talk about at the end of the episode.”
267 / belief
“There is demand in other countries for Trader Joe's. I think on that alone, in the fullness of time, can be worth at least 10x.”
268 / uncertainty
“I didn't re-listen to it for this episode, so I don't know if it holds up or not, but we do have an episode on Whole Foods.”
269 / belief
“I think most people don't care that much about the other shoppers there. They do actually care about the employees, though.”
270 / prediction
“Simply because they have nearly infinite expansion potential ahead of them internationally.”
271 / commitment
“Yep. So he says to Teo, "All right, I will sell to you, but here are my conditions: Number one, Trader Joe's will not become part of Aldi.”
272 / recommendation
“I will offer to you to also invest in this buyout at book value. So I will give you the valuation that it is on the books at Rexall, even though I'm buying it at $10,000 above book.”
273 / recommendation
“Scoping just to ride share now that we have Waymo in San Francisco, I use Waymo in scenarios where I would never use an Uber or a Lyft.”
274 / belief
“I think if that had happened, DeepMind would not have gone down in the same way, and probably OpenAI would not have gotten founded.”
275 / belief
“I think the only other bear case I would add is that they have the added challenge now of being the incumbent this time around, and people and the ecosystem isn’t necessarily rooting for them in the way that people were rooting for Google when they were a startup, and in the way that people were still rooting for Google in the mobile transition.”
276 / belief
“If we’re going to do one, we should probably launch it before they launch theirs. I think that had something to do with the timing.”
277 / belief
“Google is trying to have all four of those. There is no other company that has (I think) more than one.”
278 / belief
“I think if you look at all the big tech companies, Google, as unlikely as it seems given how things started, is probably doing the best job of trying to thread the needle with AI right now.”
279 / belief
“I think that’s viable. But again, I would say as a regular user of the product, it is a different and expanding product to human ride share.”
280 / uncertainty
“I do know that a bunch of folks on the NotebookLM team are Acquired fans. I don’t know if they trained on us.”
281 / belief
“I haven’t been to the movie theater since the Eras tour, which I think is just more about the current state of my family life with two young children.”
282 / commitment
“We plan to extend the Transformer to problems involving input and output modalities other than text, and to investigate large inputs and outputs such as images, audio, and video.”
283 / belief
“I think at the time that negotiations were taking place between Elon and Larry and Google, this was in the depths of the Model S production scaling woes.”
284 / belief
“I think I might actually, pretty soon, her birthday’s coming up, end up getting a Switch so that we can play together on the Switch.”
285 / observation
“The only way that external companies—users, developers, model researchers—could use TPUs would be if Google had a cloud to deliver them.”
286 / belief
“All right, well with that, let’s move into analysis. I think we need to do bull and bear on this one.”
287 / prediction
“The switching costs have not really come out yet in AI products, although I expect they will.”
288 / commitment
“We are going to do a open Zoom call, an LP call just like the days of yore with anyone.”
289 / belief
“I think probably some people, probably almost certainly at Google were thinking, oh, we can create narrow intelligence that’ll be better than humans at certain tasks.”
290 / belief
“The Singularity Summit, organized by Ray Kurzweil—a future Google employee (I think), Chief Futurist, noted futurist—Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Peter Thiel.”
291 / belief
“Famously, she used Mechanical Turk on Amazon (I think) to get them all hand-labeled.”
292 / belief
“Sebastian Thrun brings Geoff Hinton into the Google fold after this tech talk, (I think) first as a consultant over the next couple of years, then this is a basic later, Geoff Hinton technically becomes an intern at Google.”
293 / belief
“Tele Atlas and Navtech were multi-billion dollar companies. I think maybe one or both of them were public at some point, then got acquired.”
294 / observation
“The problem is the recommender is trying to figure out what to feed, and it’s only just working off titles and descriptions that people were writing about their own videos.”
295 / belief
“All of these incredible advances, this intelligence that we believe is to come will be for the good of everyone, not just for Google and Facebook.”
296 / belief
“As of today in 2025, this paper has been cited over 173,000 times in other academic papers, making it currently the 7th most cited paper of the 21st century. I think all of the other papers above it on the list have been out much longer.”
297 / belief
“I think all that is true. Also in the intervening months to year after this meeting between Demis and Elon and Elon investing in DeepMind, Elon also starts to get really, really excited and convinced about the capabilities of AI in the near term, and specifically the capabilities of AI for Tesla.”
298 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if it’s exactly the right analogy, but you might say in today’s Transformer-world–speak, you might say that their context window was pretty short.”
299 / evaluation
“This is a small little passage in Stephen Levy’s great book that’s been a source for all of our Google episodes, In the Plex. This is a small little throwaway passage in here about this because this book came out before ChatGPT and AI and all that.”
300 / prediction
“The thought process is if you can take a given piece of information and make it smaller, store it away, and then later reinstantiate it in its original form, the only way that you could possibly do that is if whatever force is acting on the data actually understands what it means.”
301 / recommendation
“Yeah. Scoping just to ride share now that we have Waymo in San Francisco, I use Waymo in scenarios where I would never use an Uber or a Lyft.”
302 / belief
“Then Ben, as you teed up in the intro, the question is why did they do all this? And I think the way to answer it is to start and just tell the stories of all the individual products.”
303 / recommendation
“Yes, Keyhole and Google Earth (I think) is my favorite part of our first Google episode earlier this year.”
304 / belief
“Then my quintessence is, it is wild that this one company has eight products with over a billion users and started this era with just one Search that didn’t even have a billion users yet, but Search, Android, Chrome, YouTube, Gmail maps, drive photos, and then if you count the Playstore as separate from Android, which Google does, I think that’s a bit of a stretch.”
305 / commitment
“The thing is though—we will correct the Acquired record at the end of this section—either way, even if Google paid 20 times $1.”
306 / commitment
“I will buy a switch too at some point, probably in the next year or so. But for now, steam Deck.”
307 / belief
“Google Chrome frame was a plugin for Internet Explorer that replaced IE’s JavaScript engine and pulled in the Chrome V8 JavaScript engine and I think also WebKit.”
308 / uncertainty
“The only icons and apps on the phone are the ones that Apple puts there. Two of the, I don’t know how many there were, 10, 12, 13 apps are Google apps.”
309 / belief
“I think we’re still in the era of, you can’t even change your wallpaper on the iPhone.”
310 / belief
“We heard in the research that after this deal, Patrick Pichette (I think) was the CFO of Google at the time.”
311 / belief
“I think that happened very quickly. YouTube traffic scaled so fast and so big. You can see how YouTube here, not only are they the correct video platform for the web and just doing it much better than Google’s doing it with Google video.”
312 / uncertainty
“YouTube as a small startup has the advantage of, oh, copyright, rules, laws. I don’t know.”
313 / belief
“I think all of these things are true. However, having your own browser when Microsoft does launch Bing, hugely, hugely, hugely important.”
314 / belief
“Less than free business model. This is the clearest example of counter positioning I think that has ever existed.”
315 / prediction
“From an engineering and scientific standpoint, building things that make use of this is a really interesting intellectual exercise. I expect we’ll be working on that for a while, incredible.”
316 / belief
“Sundar’s personality I think was a way to reunify the company, bring everybody back together.”
317 / belief
“Meta has four. Apple I think only has three, maybe four. The three Apple has for sure are iPhone, iMessage and Safari, iPad maybe I don’t think so.”
318 / belief
“Google doesn’t release usage data for YouTube, but I’m pretty sure that YouTube is the biggest single property on the Internet in terms of minutes spent by humans on it. It’s not, I believe that the biggest number of users on the Internet, both Facebook Blue App and WhatsApp are bigger in terms of total number of users.”
319 / belief
“There are billions and billions of dollars at stake here. But the other part of it too, I think the reason that the smartphone market had stagnated for so long was this.”
320 / commitment
“Go start a startup, leave Google. We will then reacquire you back into Google in a couple of years.”
321 / uncertainty
“The company started by Andy Rubin and Andy of course had been an engineer at Apple and then left Apple with a group of rebels. I don’t know, were they rebels that went to go start General Magic.”
322 / belief
“By the way, also since I think the theme of this whole episode is like the dual bottom line to Google of everything they’re doing of both revenue and profits and strategic installation versus other large tech companies.”
323 / belief
“What if we think simpler and we just make a wireless version of this to scan barcodes.”
324 / belief
“Then it was in beta for 10 years. But I think the reason it took so long was this was all new.”
325 / observation
“Fast forward to today, it’s hard to get real actual apples-to-apples data on Google Workspace versus Microsoft Office users. But basically, the way to think about the market is that Google has the vast majority of users and usage of productivity software, and Microsoft still has the vast majority of dollars.”
326 / belief
“Then I realized the other as bigger or bigger thing is cloud Google should have been massively investing in cloud.”
327 / belief
“Pretty wild. But to my point about the dollars, so Microsoft’s productivity and business process segment, which is mostly Office—I think LinkedIn is now part of this too—last year generated over $120 billion in revenue.”
328 / belief
“I think if you lumped them all together into Workspace and add Drive, it is over a billion users.”
329 / belief
“Branding, I think in the heyday of Google that we’re talking about in this episode when they’re launching all these incredible products, yes these products won because they’re incredible and because they were free.”
330 / belief
“The ultimate fun coda though is Sam Schillace, founder of Writely, he would go on to manage all of Docs and Sheets. I think he actually managed Maps at some point too.”
331 / commitment
“We are going to buy a device and make this our flagship smartphone, position it against the iPhone and we are going to invest hugely behind this thing.”
332 / belief
“Microsoft can keep all the dollars. All we care about is people use the web. In this instance, particularly with Office and productivity, really this is about putting the screws to Microsoft a little bit and distracting them.”
333 / belief
“I think so. That’s how they take care of the cost side of the equation, is not running out of control is the invite strategy.”
334 / belief
“I think if you look at users of Docs, Sheets, or Slides, it’s in the billion-ish, 500 million billion range for each of those.”
335 / commitment
“You grow the web, you grow time that people spend in web browsers, they will search more, we will make more money.”
336 / belief
“Friendster was a thing at the time, January, 2004, before Gmail, before the Google IPO, before Facebook launches on the Harvard campus, in his 20% time, he launches a social network within Google called Orkut. It didn’t become that big in America, but it got at its peak, I think 300 million users.”
337 / evaluation
“Plus all this has turn by turn navigation is, but even to put aside whether it was better or not, it just was a real smartphone on Verizon, Time Magazine named the Droid its product of the year for 2009.”
338 / commitment
“Now I believe Eric had disclosed to Steve about the Sooner project because obviously it was public that Google had acquired Android and I believe that Steve Jobs knew that Google was working on like a Blackberry style phone, but he did not know about the Dream prototype.”
339 / prediction
“Ben, to your point, because they have to make it look and feel and function exactly like the installed desktop apps, this is going to take them a long time and be a big investment.”
340 / prediction
“If you look back to 2008, which was a long time ago now, all of the other leaders that were involved in that era have long since retired. I think many folks within J.”
341 / belief
“Google pioneered all of this, which I think is why in retrospect this IPO is viewed as a famous success.”
342 / belief
“Yup. I think that’s even abstracted. From a computer perspective, they see the master map, they feel like they have access to the whole file, but then what’s actually getting returned to them to operate on is only just the chunk data that they need.”
343 / commitment
“I would ask our listener base for help with this decision, and I would love all of your thoughts, but because of our editing process the reality is I will have made my decision already by the time this episode goes live.”
344 / belief
“Hell, 2002, I was probably just transitioning from using AOL as my way to access the Internet as a senior in high school. I think we had maybe just gotten broadband that year, maybe the year before.”
345 / belief
“Once they saw how well the GoTo and Overture model was working, I think Larry and Sergey were kicking themselves of, we should have just done this from the beginning.”
346 / observation
“The only way you could figure that out is if you somehow went and got a copy of everybody’s phone book, then could backtrace all the links.”
347 / belief
“I meant magical from an economic standpoint. It is the most magical economic transaction I think ever known man.”
348 / belief
“Also that Overture had really good technology too. I think that is true. But again, back to Google’s infrastructure, the commodity hardware, the scaling out data centers, the distributed file system, and distributed computing, to really scale this, you needed special infrastructure that only they had.”
349 / belief
“If you go to that project homepage, you can find past versions of this on the Internet or images. I think there’s even a recreation of it out there.”
350 / belief
“I think part of the reason Larry and Sergey were like, okay, Sally, new guy, you go do this, is they didn’t actually want to tell VCs that much.”
351 / observation
“There’s that famous John Wanamaker quote of, “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted. The problem is, I just don’t know which half.”
352 / belief
“I think that picture actually was on backrub.stanford.edu. It looks like somebody’s back.”
353 / belief
“Amazing. But yes, I think the spirit of all these stories is true. It was an instant electric friendship-partnership between the two of them.”
354 / belief
“I think Eric was acceptable to both sides. Both because he was an actual engineer and had been at Sun.”
355 / belief
“Larry’s just like, well F it. This is how I believe search should work. We’re going to build this thing ourselves here at Stanford.”
356 / evaluation
“Finally after months of this, they come back and they tell Kleiner and Sequoia, there’s one person that we met in this whole process who we think meets our bar, who we would be willing to come in and hire as our CEO here at Google.”
357 / prediction
“Basically the light bulb now goes off of if we can have Google search, paid and organic, be part of the user experience anywhere on the Internet, we should do everything possible to do that because it will build our liquidity pool and our business, and we will just monetize the Internet.”
358 / evaluation
“Part of the reason I say all this, and I want to include Sergey too in what I’m about to say, even though we haven’t introduced him yet in the story, I think there’s this perception today that Larry and Sergey were these bumbling academic guys, who weren’t really business minded, and Google was a research project, and this all happened by accident that they built the best business of all time.”
359 / prediction
“I think perhaps inspired by what Yahoo was doing, Larry proposes that they’re going to work on this idea of a system that will allow people to make annotations and notes directly on websites instead of in a centralized directory like Yahoo.”
360 / uncertainty
“I think the word cheerleader is actually in the PowerPoint deck.”
361 / belief
“I think you called it to us, and when we were talking to you for research, the sun, the moon, and the stars.”
362 / evaluation
“At a certain point along the way, you get to, well I want to say the holy trinity, but I think there are more than three pieces of this.”
363 / evaluation
“Well, I think in practice it all works out the same way of, there’s one thing that is everything.”
364 / evaluation
“You’ve got a duration of your advantage because not every other team can build or remodel an arena.”
365 / evaluation
“I think everybody would agree it’s an enterprise company, and that’s largely thanks to you.”
366 / belief
“We digitized, but we didn’t transform in the way that I think people were optimistically hoping for.”
367 / belief
“I think that across those 295 million patients, there’s data from 15 billion individual patient encounters.”
368 / belief
“Thomas’ NHS Trust, which was (I think) their biggest ever single implementation and happening in the UK.”
369 / belief
“In 2006 already, I think everybody knows in America the current healthcare system sucks.”
370 / belief
“I think that’s how you sum up Epic. This altruistic piece is despite certainly being expensive, they basically never raise prices once you’re a customer.”
371 / belief
“To be clear, I think especially after the Kaiser win, Epic was going to become the dominant player anyway, absent of meaningful use.”
372 / commitment
“I would for sure buy shares of Epic at $100 billion. There’s no way I will ever be allowed to, but I would love to.”
373 / belief
“I was trying to square in my mind earlier when we were telling the meaningful use story, how on the one hand it really was obviously good for Epic, an accelerant, and it further cemented the market dynamics where they were already emerging as the leader.”
374 / belief
“I think you could argue that they do have process power, I think is the last one I would say, in their development process, the language that they use, and it being unique to Epic.”
375 / uncertainty
“If they classify those eight people that they employ as “salespeople” as headcount, maybe they spend, I don’t know, not much.”
376 / belief
“Judy has announced that upon her death, all of her voting shares, so the 100% voting control that she has at the company, will transfer into a “purpose trust” that will be administered by three constituencies: (1) Her family—her husband Godon if he’s still alive, and their three children, (2) A set of five longtime senior managers from Epic, and (3) I believe three customer CEOs, CEOs of big customers.”
377 / belief
“I think the basic bull case on ambient voice, ambient AI, is this is a great new product revenue opportunity.”
378 / belief
“Here are the doctors who treated those patients, so this has already happening quite a bit (I think) with rare diseases and crazy cases.”
379 / belief
“I believe the Rockefeller Foundation was behind funding all this, call back to our Standard Oil episodes.”
380 / uncertainty
“I don’t know if it was just Northwest or they had maybe some other smaller regional operations at the time, but they had a Pacific Northwest, small region based in Portland, Oregon.”
381 / belief
“I think that’s right. Listeners, what we’re talking about is the American Girl doll company founded by Pleasant Rowland in Madison, Wisconsin.”
382 / commitment
“Now, we haven’t really talked about Cerner so far in this episode. Part of Oracle today, as we will get into later.”
383 / belief
“I don’t even know if the designers did that, but I think Judy and the company were like, well this feels like a Wisconsin Lakes lodge.”
384 / belief
“Meanwhile, her son (I think) was in seventh grade or something like that, and was doing these programming competitions around the state.”
385 / belief
“I think there may even have been some pipe dreams of like, oh, we’re going to commercialize this and sell it to other hospitals.”
386 / belief
“I think also because the flat organization, you’re also doing it alongside other senior people and learning from them directly.”
387 / belief
“Exactly, there a roll-up. And I think some of their biggest companies are vertical market healthcare and healthcare IT companies within Constellation.”
388 / belief
“On the back of that, in 1992, they launch EpicCare, which I believe is the first graphical user interface, like Windows-based EMR application in the entire industry.”
389 / belief
“I think now is the right time, while we’re talking about the campus and Epic culture, to really talk about Epic culture.”
390 / observation
“As we told the story, they had the better product, they had the better customer offering, they were on the way to winning anyway.”
391 / belief
“I think the answers have gotten out on the Internet, but for a long time was used.”
392 / belief
“I think when you start you have to do five of them, and then you do more every year.”
393 / belief
“Taylor Swift and Oprah, which we’ve talked about, and we did our Taylor Swift update at the Chase Center Show last year. We think the enterprise of Taylor Inc is “only” worth about $11 billion.”
394 / belief
“Do you know what other great American company from Madison, Wisconsin also started in that same office space, and I believe overlapped.”
395 / commitment
“How are we going to attract them to Verona, Wisconsin? Well we are going to create a paradise for them.”
396 / belief
“Fast forward to today, I think that is actually the single biggest reason why Epic wins over their competitors.”
397 / belief
“I do remember this. I think I might have had one. No, I have one of the U2 iPods, the red and black one.”
398 / belief
“I want to see what it’s like there. She’s really impressed by Redmond as I think anybody who goes there would be.”
399 / prediction
“Totally, and I think a huge part of what enabled this building software is not necessarily a capital-light activity.”
400 / prediction
“By the way, again, inpatient activities are probably going to be your majority revenue stream because that’s where the most expensive, most complex care is happening, kind of similar to Medicare is your most important payer relationship because old people is where the most complex, most expensive care is happening, So you’ve got that, and then you’ve got Resolute, the billing system, all single database, all tied together, all built on top of it.”
401 / evaluation
“Which I think really should just tell you how important the stability and continuity of the system across inpatient, outpatient, and billing is, because Epic is the only one that can offer that.”
402 / evaluation
“A great software business for a local entrepreneur in Madison, Wisconsin, I think is how you would describe that.”
403 / evaluation
“Now, this was a little self-serving on Judy’s part because Cerner was not good at ambulatory.”
404 / commitment
“I started Googling obituaries and I came across her mom’s obituary where I learned this, and the company actually confirmed this to us.”
405 / belief
“Now you’ve got one of, if not the biggest sports private equity firm in the world—I think Redbird is a $10 billion assets under management firm—coming in and investing in that franchise in the IPL.”
406 / belief
“I think the specific one to IPL—we haven’t talked about this yet—in November, 2024, Viacom 18/Reliance and Star Disney merged in an $8.”
407 / belief
“The euphemism, I believe that the Indian business environment is referred to as a low trust environment; i.”
408 / belief
“Ben, you were mentioning teams running in the red in the English Premier League. This is (I think) beyond just overpaying for players.”
409 / uncertainty
“Maybe. I don’t know. They’re pretty close. You’re not going to do that anywhere else.”
410 / belief
“I would say explosive right away is an understatement, as you might expect, given the incredible architecture of it and Lalit’s force of will personality.”
411 / commitment
“” The Supreme Court here stepping in and basically saying, we are going to backstop and fix all of this, the IPL is by far the most visible industry where India is the global leader, with the global most important business brand entity in the world.”
412 / belief
“I suspect that had the IPL not been such a huge success and Lalit were not looking to tear up the contract, he would not have caught these discrepancies, shall we say.”
413 / belief
“I guess Morris Chang and TSMC too, although Morris over time did get quite a significant stake in TSMC through equity grants, and Dee (I think) got paid quite a bit at Visa too.”
414 / belief
“I believe in fact that when they were talking about this in the locker room, he might have first offered a Rolex and then the players were like, no.”
415 / belief
“Totally all domestic. That brings us to (I think) one of the two biggest wild cards here for the IPL, and that’s the Saudis and Middle East money.”
416 / belief
“I think if you talk to anybody who invests in India, this is the number one challenge for everything.”
417 / uncertainty
“If you look at American football at the NFL in America, it’s like, I don’t know, 37% or something like that.”
418 / belief
“Just for context on that, the most recent 2025 Super Bowl was the biggest Super Bowl ever, and I think de facto that makes it the biggest broadcast TV event in US history.”
419 / belief
“I believe something like less than 20 people have ever done this in history, even to this day.”
420 / commitment
“You’re setting up a question I have at the end of the episode, so we will come back to that.”
421 / belief
“To give you a sense of just how much latent value there is here, I don’t think it goes to auction. I think Sahara just says, okay.”
422 / commitment
“I know this is going to capture the public’s imagination here. I will personally give you a Porsche 911.”
423 / evaluation
“I foreshadowed a little bit ago in the TV rights deal with World Sports Group and Sony that Lalit had given him his word as a gentleman that if this whole thing doesn’t work, I’ll rip up the deal and I’ll won’t carry IPL forward.”
424 / prediction
“We’re going to do a two-team franchise auction in the same model as the first one, except now we expect the prices are going to be much higher.”
425 / belief
“Now, another BCCI board member, N Srinivasan, who (I think) by this time had become the chair of the board and was Lalit’s main nemesis on the BCCI board, directly owned the Chennai Super Kings through India Cements.”
426 / belief
“In IPL, even today I think players are getting 12%–15% of the revenue of the league.”
427 / belief
“The best players look “tired.” I think tired is in quotes for cricketers. They can play any day of the week.”
428 / belief
“You bid $100 million, it’s $10 million over 10 years on average, but I’m only going to charge you $5 million in the first. I believe that’s how it was set up.”
429 / belief
“If that current growth rate in the domestic Indian ad market of call it 6%–7% per year sustains over the next 20 years, that I believe compounded over 20 years is about a 10x growth.”
430 / belief
“Preity Zinta’s group gets the Kings XI Punjab for $76 million, suspiciously close in price to the $75 million Shah Rukh Khan bid, but only $1 million more. Anyway, this (I think) is known at the time.”
431 / belief
“I think that might be the story. Either way, to drive a Porsche 911 in India, period, is a big statement.”
432 / commitment
“We are going to do a parade to the stadium in Mumbai, and we’re going to have a big, huge victory celebration just like they do in Western sports after they win a World Cup.”
433 / uncertainty
“I don’t know what the likelihood of this is, but if true gambling were to become legal in India, given that $750 million of betting is already happening on foreign bookmaking markets per match, that’s a huge revenue unlock there.”
434 / belief
“Anyway, all that to say, baseball is the obvious, and I think you have the first example with the Savannah Bananas.”
435 / belief
“I think the issue is just that India is such by far the center of gravity, by which I mean the other billion cricket fans in the world are too dispersed among other countries.”
436 / belief
“To give you a little sense of this, Test cricket and I believe One Day Internationals as well, there are four possible outcomes of the game.”
437 / belief
“December 2017, Disney acquires all of 21st Century Fox for (I think) about $70 billion, inclusive of Star, all the operations in India, and this contract.”
438 / belief
“I think there’s a plausible argument to make on demographics alone that the Indian ad market will support 10x IPL media rights revenues, which gets it into the ballpark of the NFL today.”
439 / uncertainty
“MLB, I don’t know that it’s a this commissioner problem, but they’re farther along the decline curve.”
440 / belief
“I think if you do that and you have the media rates on par with the NFL, then you bring up the rest of the revenue streams up to on par, now you’re definitely on par with the NFL.”
441 / belief
“Armchair quarterback, armchair GM right now, I think I would diagnose the NBA as fine and in some sense doing better than ever, but some early red flags that in the long run if they don’t manage the game well.”
442 / belief
“Time zones are definitely the biggest challenge here. But if you put that aside, cricket is actually (I think) totally poised to take off in the US for a couple of reasons.”
443 / belief
“I don’t think you can bet on that, but I think you definitely can bet on 2x expansion of just simply inventory of games played, which combine that with 5x expansion in the ad market.”
444 / belief
“My carve out is an oldie but definitely goodie, at least as far as Acquired is concerned, because actually (I think) as much as anything, it was our original inspiration for doing the show.”
445 / belief
“I think if you can find a way to smartly, without risking the economics of the league, upgrade the infrastructure and the stadium infrastructure here, there is just so much low hanging fruit.”
446 / belief
“I think if this hadn’t happened and there’d just been the forcing out of Modi, things might really have gone sideways here because they got so much worse.”
447 / commitment
“Hey, there are 20 million hardcore cricket fans in the US today, as we will get into later in the episode.”
448 / belief
“The maximum salary that he sets for year one is $5 million or maximum purse for the auction. Then that means the minimum purse is (I think) $3.”
449 / belief
“Now, you’re setting up something that in practice, I think the cap probably would do its job and there’s enough policing to ensure that the low trust environment thing you would do would say, oh great.”
450 / belief
“I think that is unlikely because of the hammer that the BCCI has of, hey you Indian players, if you do that will ban you from international competition.”
451 / belief
“I think the Saudis want to get involved, or sovereign wealth funds generally want to get involved because they see this as a great long-term growth investment.”
452 / belief
“Then Facebook and Meta probably care even more because India is (I believe) the largest user base for WhatsApp.”
453 / belief
“Then because they had so much leverage and there was so much money, I think if I remember right when discussions were being bandied about about this happening, Chris was like, I’m just going to go play in the IPL and no longer play international cricket for the West Indies.”
454 / belief
“Point being you can’t police what happens outside of the artificial construct of a direct salary contract negotiation. And the way (I think) this plays out in practice in the NFL is let’s say you’re a player mid- to late-career.”
455 / prediction
““I got the idea of the player auction because our family company had a partnership with Sotheby’s Auction House in India, where you offer the item to the highest bidder.”
456 / evaluation
“In many respects, the current structure where we have Redbird or CVC, big institutional investors in the IPL,” which we will get to in just a sec, “that wouldn’t have been possible without the new governance structures that were put in place circa 2015 by the Supreme Court.”
457 / recommendation
“We talked about this a little already, but I would say until the IPL auction innovation, what was generally regarded as the most effective way to deal with this is a hard salary cap.”
458 / prediction
“They set up the Nimbus Sports Channel. It (I believe) quickly becomes the number one sports channel in India.”
459 / evaluation
“Because he is friends with Shah Rukh, he knows that Nokia, the big handset manufacturer at the time, remember we’re still slightly pre-smartphone era here; we’re in 2007.”
460 / disagreement
“Obviously, that’s not what Lalit wants because he needs the cash to have the central sponsorship guarantees, central media guarantees out to the franchises.”
461 / evaluation
“All these auctions that I keep running for all these media rights and sponsorships and everything, work really, really, really well because they collapse everything down to a super clear, one time, in the moment transaction, and I can set the guardrails for minimum, maximum.”
462 / evaluation
“Then that happened and then the knives came out. It’s interesting, quite interesting, all these very serious allegations that get brought up against Modi, and then ultimately the BCCI decides that he did do them and bans him for life in 2013, because the chairperson of the BCCI at this point in time and Lalit’s great rival who’s one of the forces behind ousting him is N Srinivasan, the owner of the Chennai Super Kings via his family’s business, India Cements.”
463 / prediction
“In this case I think we should do Bull, bear, and mega bull case because I think there is a mega bull case here.”
464 / belief
“Then I think the last playbook theme here for me and for us is just that Moore's Law is undefeated.”
465 / commitment
“We are going to spur semiconductor industry innovation in this industrial park in this location, and it worked.”
466 / evaluation
“I think all this is true, but if ARM hadn’t existed, there would’ve been nowhere else for this vector of innovation to go.”
467 / recommendation
“You can even start unprofitable with your prices in the early days in a given node generation, because the goal is to crowd out the competition, become the industry dominant number one player, get all the customers.”
468 / belief
“Kind was doing $1.5 billion in revenue, I believe, almost completely domestically in America.”
469 / belief
“The other aspect about chocolate, though, and I think here is the right place to talk about it, is the industry and what chocolate is, is changing hugely.”
470 / belief
“Then the chocolate inside. They partnered with chocolatiers all over the country, I think maybe even internationally all over the world, to just highlight some of the very best talent in the chocolate-making industry globally.”
471 / belief
“I believe in 2007 they took a large stake, and then in 2015 they fully bought out PetSmart for 100% ownership.”
472 / belief
“Obviously, we did not do a deep dive on the pet business, despite it being the larger business. I think, though, the main power in the pet business is switching costs.”
473 / belief
“His mother, the original Ethel, is actually still alive, and I think he spends a lot of it with her and taking care of her.”
474 / belief
“Having Buffett come in, put his stamp of approval, calm everybody down even in the midst of all the craziness with Lehman, I suspect there’s no way the deal gets done if Berkshire doesn’t get involved.”
475 / commitment
“A lot of the real, real richness and complexity that has for thousands of years made chocolate a super attractive food for humans, it’s in danger of being lost or being watered down. I will say, the industry is very focused on this.”
476 / belief
“The really big story, though, I think of the brothers’ tenure and Jackie too as a third owner of the business, and eventually later, she does also work in the business herself, is globalization.”
477 / belief
“I was the perfect age. I think Macaulay Culkin and I are roughly the same age, give or take a year.”
478 / belief
“The management of the trust became super removed from the realities of the business and the market. I think that’s how this happened.”
479 / belief
“I think a big part of the strategy, though, like you said about distribution of pet food, in 2002, Mars had bought a French pet food company called Royal Canin, or I’ve also heard it pronounced Royal Canin.”
480 / belief
“With the caveat that those companies and ones like them probably also fit this bill, I think Mars is one of the first modern companies.”
481 / belief
“I wonder, (a) if Forrest would have made a different decision, and also (b), if the brother’s would have made a different decision, had they had a little more confidence in their own security in their own places, CEOs. I think there was a timing element to this.”
482 / belief
“I think the candy industry is much like the luxury industry in that once you have an established product and product brand, it is impossible to kill it.”
483 / belief
“I believe all of which are still operating, making dark chocolate, not milk chocolate, obviously at the time.”
484 / belief
“I think that’s right. It’s super interesting how two manufacturers popped up here in San Francisco in the 1800s.”
485 / belief
“Baby Ruth candy bar named, I think, for President Grover Cleveland’s baby daughter Ruth.”
486 / commitment
“There’s a lot of legend, shall we say, about the Mars family, which we will get into as we go here.”
487 / belief
“Actually, I think if we were to use this, we would divide our profit dollars by the value of the Acquired brand.”
488 / belief
“Even he, I think, probably would have to admit that he’s thankful that Frank does these things.”
489 / belief
“On the other hand, I suspect Forrest also had his ambitions always on coming back to America anyway, and now it seemed like a pretty good time to do it.”
490 / belief
“I suspect they turn profitable on this decision a lot faster than 10 years out, but there are obviously other reasons that Forrest is doing this too.”
491 / belief
“I bet it helped pull in the bank debt because I doubt Mars had significant banking relationships going into this, because they didn’t have any debt.”
492 / commitment
“As evidenced by the fact that, here we are today eating the most popular candies in the world that Mars makes, and it’s still Snickers, Milky Way, 3 Musketeers, M&M’s, which we will get into.”
493 / belief
“After he retired and the business passed to his sons and the next generation, I think that’s when they adapted that document into the Mars principles.”
494 / belief
“I think regardless of whether Forrest had anything to do with the Milky Way idea, launch, or anything like that, meeting his dad, seeing that there is a business in the family, starts recalibrating Forrest’s ambitions even higher than just being an engineer who can now go run a mine.”
495 / belief
“I’m just purely speculating, but I suspect profit contribution–wise, they’re at least equal, if not bigger on the candy side.”
496 / belief
“I think that’s the standard decoration. Yeah, you can tell how pissed Forrest was at his dad about the Chicago factory specifically, but also just how deep seated this is.”
497 / belief
“All told, all of his sets of companies, I believe here now in the mid- to late-1950s are doing $200 million-ish in revenue.”
498 / belief
“I’m like, which one? I think there are a million of these stories. Even here, in the 30s in the UK, he basically implements the Toyota production system in the Mars factory.”
499 / belief
“I don’t want listeners to get the sense that, oh, it’s just ad agencies that are doing this and it’s advertising. It really is the discipline of marketing, of which ad agencies, I think, were a lot more consultative in this function back in the day.”
500 / belief
“There are also, as always, a couple of versions of this story. But I think the one that is closest to the truth is that back when Forrest was in England, he had gotten to know a chemist who had invented a new method for milling rice that was called parboiling.”