David Rosenthal: prediction

Transcript context

…David, we’re arriving here in analysis, and to start there’s an idea that you planted. Yes. I proposed to you a couple of days ago that we bring back a version of the bull and bear case that we used to do here at Acquired. In this case I think we should do Bull, bear, and mega bull case because I think there is a mega bull case here. The question specifically we should address in this should be is there a reasonable path that the IPL could 10x in revenue economic impact over the next set of time and be equal to or perhaps even in mega bull case greater than the NFL in terms of economic value and revenue generated to be the number one or tied as the number one sports league in the world? And the reason I think this is a particularly interesting conversation coming out of the valuation conversation we just had is the number one thing that matters in valuing any asset is what assumptions you are making about its future. You can’t say that something is expensive or inexpensive unless you talk about what your inputs are to guide that future. The most important input in the IPL team P&L right now, there are three big levers as I see it. One is are the media rights deals going to keep growing at the rate that they have been growing, which on the media rights are good friend Arvind Navaratnam at Worldly Partners has actually done the math to look into this. As always, we will link to his excellent report in the show notes. Since 2008 to 2023, the media rates have grown at an 18% compound annual growth rate from that $100 million a year mark, going with the $100 million not the $60 million.…

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