David Rosenthal: belief

Transcript context

…So the question is what is the potential market opportunity? How big could this business be? And there are a few different ways you could try to quantify it. One total market size thing you could do is try to sum the entire automaker market cap today. That would be $2.5 trillion globally if you include Tesla or $1.3 trillion without. But Waymo’s not really making cars. That’s probably the wrong way to slice it. You could look at all the ride sharing companies today, which might be a better comp because that’s the business that Waymo is actually in today. That’s on the order of $300 billion, most of which is Uber. That’s addressable market cap today with ride sharing. Waymo’s ambitions though are bigger than that. They want to be in the cars that you own. They want to be in long haul trucking. They believe they can grow the share of transportation because there are blind people that could own a car. There are elderly people who could get where they need to go on their own without having a driver, that sort of thing. The most squishy but I think the most interesting way to look at it, is what is the value from all of the reduction in accidents? Because that’s really what they’re doing. It’s a product to replace accidents with non accidents. I think that’s viable. But again, I would say as a regular user of the product, it is a different and expanding product to human ride share. So your argument is whatever number I come up with for reducing accidents, it’s still a bigger market than that because there’s additional value created in the product experience itself.…

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