hardware / owns
Rimowa suitcase
“It's similar, but I bought a Rimowa suitcase this year and I love it. It's just a suitcase, but I love it.”
Public evidence record
Host · Acquired
Books, apps, and tools
hardware / owns
“It's similar, but I bought a Rimowa suitcase this year and I love it. It's just a suitcase, but I love it.”
app / uses
“Yeah. Scoping just to ride share now that we have Waymo in San Francisco, I use Waymo in scenarios where I would never use an Uber or a Lyft.”
service / uses
“Scoping just to ride share now that we have Waymo in San Francisco, I use Waymo in scenarios where I would never use an Uber or a Lyft.”
app / likes
“Yes, Keyhole and Google Earth (I think) is my favorite part of our first Google episode earlier this year.”
app / likes
“I think I talked before on the Meta episode about how much I love Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist before that.”
app / likes
“I think I talked before on the Meta episode about how much I love Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist before that.”
app / uses
“I listen to so much music all the time on Winamp, it should just know what I like and automatically pick the next song.”
hardware / uses
“I used AirPods for years and years and they’re great, but if you sleep on your side or do anything you know you got the AirPod jamming into your ears.”
app / avoids
“Honestly, this is why I don't use ChatGPT for acquired work, I feel like we need to be a hundred percent all the time.”
other / uses
“Two on some holiday travel flights, I think recommended by an Acquired listener, actually, I watched the Blackberry movie.”
book / uses
“I have to give you a big thank you, because over the last couple of weeks since your recommendation, I have read the book Wool, which is the first in the series that is the Silo series on Apple TV+, because I'm more of a book guy than a TV guy.”
other / likes
“That's why Nike is my favorite episode, because I feel like this way of thinking about what we do finally clicked for me.”
Claim ledger
320 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“Bob, and he recounts all of this in Ride of a Lifetime, comes up with, I think, one of the most brilliant campaign framings that I have ever heard.”
02 / belief
“Like himself? But I think really, like, what this is really about and Roy's superpower for Disney was that even if he wasn't, you know, the best executive or leader or in touch with the marketplace, as evidenced by the total flop of "Fantasia 2000.”
03 / belief
“The whole thing feels like a high-wire act. And right when we got to Snow White's box office numbers, we realized that a bunch of authoritative sources listed $8 million as the revenue for Snow White's box office in its original release.”
04 / belief
“I think consumers have had some version of that complaint about Disney, ever since Michael Eisner took over in 1984.”
05 / belief
“Iron Man had come out. I think a couple of others. And had been hits, but nobody could see what Marvel would end up becoming under Disney.”
06 / belief
“I would argue, again, very different dynamics, but the same version of the story.”
07 / belief
“Yep. So heading into 2022, Bob Chapek does a reorg, basically reorging the entire company around the streaming strategy, consolidates all the studios altogether into one reporting segment, Disney Media, I think, D-Med.”
08 / belief
“I think really it was another version of the same thesis of Pixar, which was there are great stories and storytellers here and let's give them a bigger canvas to paint on.”
09 / belief
“Yep. Well, I think that is probably the perfect tee-up to transition to analysis.”
10 / belief
“Starwave was basically a web developer that they, I think, paid a couple hundred million dollars for.”
11 / belief
“One of his first calls after he gets the news on, I think, a Sunday afternoon is to Steve Jobs, the then CEO of Pixar, in addition to being the CEO of Apple.”
12 / belief
“You said, quote, "One reason to doubt it—it being Disney+—is, I think, Disney may be underestimating just how much content people need to stay satiated.”
13 / belief
“One of the first things they do that ends up, I think, really setting up all the following success that Eisner and Wells and Katzenberg have is they raise the ticket prices at Disneyland and Disney World.”
14 / belief
“I think you can make an argument that ABC fits in with The Walt Disney Company and the Disney flywheel.”
15 / belief
“Yep. And I think Steve is so surprised that it opens the door and it leads to this great relationship between the two of them.”
16 / belief
“Even more than that, I think for a lot of startup cable networks, the dollars went the other way.”
17 / belief
“Vis-à-vis streaming, I suspect part of that analysis also led them to the conclusion that, hey, our library just isn't strong enough to be compelling as a streaming product.”
18 / belief
“Gabler, I think, was the only author who had full access to the Disney archives, and all the research he did for that book is just incredible.”
19 / belief
“Yeah. And because it's Disney and part of Disneyland, we think, oh yeah, audio animatronics, like Disneyland.”
20 / belief
“Again, I think the novelty of cartoons plus live animation, audiences are entertained for a few years.”
21 / belief
“Walt also, in his mind, I think, comes to see this Burbank campus as really a utopian-like place, kind of almost like a college campus.”
22 / belief
“I think most of the film profits from Snow White went to repay all the loans to Bank of America.”
23 / belief
“Core Disney and Disney Animation and Pixar have been so disciplined over the years about metering out their content and the core delivery of that content on an infrequent enough basis that it doesn't dilute it. And Marvel, ironically, I think really is the counterexample here.”
24 / belief
“Yep. And I think there's something else too that only comes when you really fully embrace the flywheel business model and the trade-offs that it involves.”
25 / belief
“Yep, yep, yep. But I think for every other studio out there, their incentives have always been and are always going to be to release as much content as quickly as possible.”
26 / belief
“I have a fun bit of trivia for you, Ben. So as I think you know, Disney eventually does get the rights to Oswald back.”
27 / belief
“I think more than anything else, like through Disney films and Looney Tunes and Warner Brothers, I was just sitting there like, man, I feel like I should be watching some animation right now.”
28 / belief
“Walt is like the original Steve Jobs, and I think you can definitely make the case that Ub is the Steve Wozniak.”
29 / belief
“The other story is that Walt always had a dream since he got to Hollywood of having his name up on a neon sign. And now that they have their own real studio, he wants a neon sign constructed that says the Walt Disney Studio, which I think does happen.”
30 / belief
“In the better economics of not having to share too much on the back end or in merchandising fees, etc, with stars. And then I think really just like the ability of people to form deep, lasting relationships with the characters versus live action.”
31 / belief
“I think Iwerks had immense artistic talent as an animator and was able to do that.”
32 / belief
“I think the quote was, "Radio whets the appetite for attending baseball games live, and TV satiates it.”
33 / belief
“Now, there's a reason why the Screen Cartoonists Guild had stayed away from Disney despite it obviously being the leader in animation up until this point, which is I think Walt's utopian dream more or less was true, or at least true enough.”
34 / belief
“Fidelity is very happy to have their 401(k) and brokerage account holders do what you do of just hold the Vanguard funds through ETFs. And I think Jack kind of foresaw this.”
35 / belief
“I mean, it's his quote from his memoir that I have right here: I realized that a mutual company would never provide me with the personal fortune that so many denizens of Wall Street would earn, but it offered, I believe, my last best chance to resume my career.”
36 / belief
“All that said, I totally agree. I think you need to be operating in a space such that you can access capital.”
37 / belief
“Yep. So in January 2019, Jack passes away at age 89 after just one of the most incredible lives, I think, of the 20th century into the 21st century.”
38 / belief
“All the proceeds from the book sales all go directly to the Bogle Family Foundation, where they get distributed to a whole variety of charities, including prominently the American Indian College Fund, which I think Jack was on the board of and was a huge supporter of during his life.”
39 / belief
“Like, I think Morgan and everybody at Wellington and Jack absolutely did have their customers and the fund holders in mind and wanted to do a great job for them.”
40 / belief
“At the time, Fidelity is managing just $3 million, and the previous owners, who I think are, you know, retiring, they literally give Fidelity, the firm, to Edward Johnson for free.”
41 / belief
“I couldn't find the exact date, but I believe my grandparents must have become Vanguard clients either in the late '70s or early '80s when nobody was a Vanguard client.”
42 / belief
“All of which, of course, is like the very, very best marketing that, I would say buy, you can't even possibly buy marketing like this.”
43 / belief
“I think one time he collapsed and had a heart attack waiting for the commuter train out of Philadelphia, and he was lying there on the ground, and the ambulance and the paramedics came, and he makes a bet with them that they won't get him to the hospital in time to save his life.”
44 / belief
“I think that actually might be the strategy today. Back then with the 166, there was demand for a lot more than 101.”
45 / belief
“I think we got to scope it to companies that make products that are nominally available for purchase by consumers, but yes.”
46 / belief
“Luca does, but he goes day to day to Turin and kinda closer to the Agnelli empire. And I think Enzo thinks that he's gonna still have a spy now in Fiat with Luca, which maybe he does, maybe he doesn't.”
47 / belief
“Now, legends would say later, and Luigi, I think, would probably perpetuate this himself, that Luigi is the one who convinced Enzo to abandon the machine tools business and focus only on cars again after World War II.”
48 / belief
“Sergio gets them out of the partnership and engineers GM paying $2 billion to Fiat in order to end the partnership. And I think without that $2 billion, the company almost certainly would have died.”
49 / belief
“I think Luca probably had zero interest in taking Ferrari public, and I think he had even less than zero interest in using proceeds from the Ferrari IPO and the other financial engineering that we're about to talk about to save Chrysler and Fiat.”
50 / belief
“Making it announced to Wall Street like, oh, hey, we think the right thing to do next year is to cut our production by half.”
51 / belief
“I think so. Or at least he started it. It was really important to him that the factories be first rate.”
52 / belief
“I would never actually want to get behind the wheel of it, but I think I gotta go with the F40.”
53 / belief
“Luca goes out and recruits the dream team. I think the greatest set of F1 team members that had ever existed in history.”
54 / belief
“Ben: It's funny, David, you know this, but I talked with the CEO Benedetto Vigna yesterday and he told me, we don't sell a car, we sell a dream. And I think that's an old Porsche line.”
55 / belief
“I think the really interesting thing to look at is how the Ferrari model range has evolved in the years since the IPO.”
56 / belief
“The LaFerrari Halo car was the first fully in-house designed Ferrari. And during those 61 years, I believe every single road-going production Ferrari except for one, I think, was designed by Pininfarina.”
57 / belief
“I think at the end of the day, though, I maintained that we can debate the semantics of luxury products, price points, et cetera.”
58 / belief
“Big thank you to James Dowling, co-author of The Best of Time, which is I think probably we went through all the big coffee table books on Rolex and probably the best one out there.”
59 / belief
“I think maybe the more interesting question is, rewind back to the lifestyle era, post–World War II when they’re launching all the professional watches, the sport watches.”
60 / belief
“I think he’s probably known and respected in the industry, but wasn’t a large player.”
61 / belief
“I suspect that this is part of the reason not to have gone directly into retail.”
62 / belief
““To my longtime friend, René Jeanneret,” who I believe was Rolex head of communications at the time, “who enabled me to always be on time.”
63 / belief
“Then in the 1980s when the Italian thing happens, the Paul Newman thing happens, and the collector’s market gets built, I think the first real big move that Rolex makes into the luxury world.”
64 / belief
“I believe at some point, Rolex starts actually testing their watches to significantly greater depth than what is advertised for this reason.”
65 / belief
“I don’t think it’s worth much detail, but I think actually for a long time the fake market was great for Rolex.”
66 / belief
“His second wife, Betty, loved the Datejust, and still to this day, the Lady Datejust (I believe) is the single best-selling model in the Rolex catalog.”
67 / belief
“In 1953, he’s filming the documentary, The Silent World, in the Mediterranean Sea that is going to go on to win the Oscar, the Academy Award for best documentary (I think) in 1956.”
68 / belief
“Just that Rolex certainly was, and I’m sure probably still is the most faked, certainly watch brand if not any brand in the world. I think that was good for them, not so much recently.”
69 / belief
“Now is a good time (I think) to bring up, there’s one more piece of Rolex the corporation and the story, which for the longest time (I think) both of us were totally puzzled by.”
70 / belief
“I’m sure there are some people, but I think for a lot of people who love Rolex, they’re also going to own a Panerai or they’re going to own a whatever, and that doesn’t hurt their relationship with Rolex.”
71 / belief
“Even to this day, I believe the market of buyers for Rolex watches is basically 50/50 men and women.”
72 / belief
“As waitlist management becomes more important, I think that becomes more critical.”
73 / belief
“Kodak, I believe, was the first invented product brand name, and it was a name that meant nothing.”
74 / belief
“Hermès didn’t, and Rolex followed this exact playbook over the last 10 years of not price-gauging themselves out of the market, but intentionally limiting supply, letting the secondary market go nuts, and then but keeping an even keel for themselves. Now that there’s been a bit of a reset, they’re stronger than ever I think.”
75 / belief
“I think if that were the only factor, Rolex probably would’ve stayed in England.”
76 / belief
“The reason I think that Rolex is a luxury company extraordinaire is managing the market as opposed to participating in it.”
77 / belief
“I think that probably rarely happens, but to Hans’s original vision of I want everybody to be able to own a Rolex, this is the way that they can have that happen.”
78 / belief
“One of his maniacal control things was, I believe, up until he died or pretty close to it, he did all the creative for all the advertisement.”
79 / belief
“Ultimately, after the war in 1919, Hans moves both himself and the official company headquarters to Geneva, where of course it still is to this day. And even to this day—this is crazy—design, sales, marketing, and (I think) final assembly all happen in Geneva while production of the movement still happens up in the mountains in Bienne.”
80 / belief
“I think if at least you buy the premise that if they were to operate their own retail locations, they would be pushed by customers to have more things in those stores than just the six or seven core Rolex models, which you probably can’t walk out of the store holding one of them anyway.”
81 / belief
“Then at some point in time—could be a couple of months, could be a couple of years—you’ll get the call that your model is available. The Daytona is (I think) the only model where there is no waitlist.”
82 / belief
“All of these innovations, even though Sol came up with them, as these other companies are scaling and I think particularly Kmart, they don't really have the large scale operational expertise, nor the access to capital to really fend off the competition.”
83 / belief
“I didn't learn a lot, I learned everything. Absolutely everything I know, I learned from Sol.”
84 / belief
“Part of the enormous diaspora of retailers that come out of not only FedMart but Price Club, Jim Sinegal, I think, was probably locked up at FedMart under new management for a while.”
85 / belief
“I think the origins of this though start all the way back with the original Price Club business plan.”
86 / belief
“I think Costco has incredible counter positioning power today as a large incumbent in a way that they did not have when they got started.”
87 / belief
“I think I'm going to quote Charlie on this one and say, I have nothing more to add.”
88 / belief
“You are very much paying for the convenience of shopping on Amazon, I think on almost every product these days.”
89 / belief
“We're going to clone the Price Club model and start the same thing up in Seattle. Again, I think Sol is totally fine with this.”
90 / belief
“One of the best podcast episodes this period all year, I think, especially because we know Jeremy pretty well from Tiny, and we know Patrick very well.”
91 / belief
“What I think also, back to the membership, it all comes back to member trust. The members have to trust that they are going to get the absolute best price on everything and that Costco isn't going to be playing these games.”
92 / belief
“Mann literally fires Sol, I think and Robert, too, and changes the locks on their office doors.”
93 / belief
“I think what's interesting to talk about next is, okay, everybody knows how this all works.”
94 / belief
“I think by the time they actually launched it, they had relocated to Issaquah, a little farther south.”
95 / belief
“While we're talking about the people here, I think a related but separate playbook theme is truly the promoting from within culture there.”
96 / belief
“I think for the items again, the non-staples, the treasure hunt type items, they intentionally want to run out so that they're not going to be there next time you come.”
97 / belief
“If I remember from our Walmart episode, Walmart (I think) has over 2 million employees.”
98 / belief
“Interestingly, the transaction really is about as close to a merger of equals as I think we've ever seen on the show, with the caveat that Jim is clearly going to be the CEO that's going to run the combined company.”
99 / belief
“I think Walmart has basically decided, look, we're not going to kill the Sam's Club business, but this is not where we're focusing our competitive energies right now.”
100 / belief
“If we have a small number of additional ooh, ahh, and wow, one time items, such that every time as a member you come into the store, there's something new and different for you to find and buy at a really low price, that would drive repeat traffic and make coming to Costco more of a novelty, more of an entertainment event. Today, I think about 25% of their SKUs are these treasure hunt items.”
101 / belief
“The individual warehouses these days, you may have the stats exactly, but I think an average Costco warehouse generates over $200 million in revenue, and the top ones generate three $400 million of revenue for a single store.”
102 / belief
“I think there's a related bull case of a champion or champion level female driver emerging in the coming years.”
103 / belief
“One thing that I think you could have argued a couple of years ago was a bear case, but I think has been put to rest is this was a COVID-driven fad.”
104 / belief
“Today, I think every single F1 team is worth at least one and a half billion, I think is the floor.”
105 / belief
“Not just an entrepreneur. I think you need somebody truly with Bernie's background.”
106 / belief
“The offering I believe was intended to be $2 billion but there was not enough demand and Morgan Stanley could only rustle up 1.”
107 / belief
“I think you could maybe even argue they are the only legitimate luxury brand established in the second half of the 20th century.”
108 / belief
“Totally, mortal danger was actually, I think, a core part of the appeal of the sport in those early days.”
109 / belief
“Also gets purchased for one British pound. And listeners, I suspect unless you are a hardcore F1 fan, you probably will not be able to guess what team this is.”
110 / belief
“" I don't think Atlassian has a physical executive briefing center. I think F1 and the paddock club is their executive briefing center.”
111 / belief
“Oracle's CMO said, I believe on an earnings call that Drive to Survive was the reason that they decided to get into F1 and do the big Red Bull sponsorship.”
112 / belief
“Back to your point earlier about Red Bull strategy, they could be making much more, I think.”
113 / belief
“Team owner, race promoter, official FIA representative, and of course, CEO and owner of FOPA and de facto, the league itself. And I think at every point in time, he was always in at least two, if not three or four of those roles simultaneously.”
114 / belief
“Compared to, I believe, over three billion that Bernie and his trust had pulled out of the company through all the debt and equity machinations that we discussed earlier.”
115 / belief
“I believe still to this day, Ayrton Senna's funeral in Brazil is the largest attended public funeral in history.”
116 / belief
“Here's why I was going with the second reason why I think you needed a Bernie. The global nature of the sport, the insane logistics required to be operating a global sport, the idea that an employee, that the teams, the F1 teams, could have gotten together and hired an employee like the NFL did with Pete Rozelle to go and create all this.”
117 / belief
“At a minimum, I think you absolutely needed a strong individual personality to emerge at the right moment in time.”
118 / belief
“We should note here, for folks who are not deep F1 fans, I think maybe the only part of F1 cars that is common mandated across the whole league.”
119 / belief
“Of course, what we're getting at is they end up with, I think, the most impactful piece of sports media in history.”
120 / belief
“We don't need to go into a bunch of the specifics, but I think like from the acquired standpoint and the NFL audience standpoint, this was a major, major trust-breaking moment.”
121 / belief
“You can't trust those valuations. I think any actual trade would have to be higher than that.”
122 / belief
“For a long time, this ownership structure and ownership code was actually, I think, a key part to the NFL strategy working.”
123 / belief
“Indeed, baseball had a lot to lose. And to be fair to all of them, in the early days, and I think for a long time, local market home television airing of home games absolutely depressed in-person attendance.”
124 / belief
“I think Lamar was like, "Oh, it's just kind of a funny placeholder name." But then it just stuck.”
125 / belief
“I think that's probably right. For those networks, for the last decade, run the counterfactual of the networks no longer had football.”
126 / belief
“I believe Travis Kelsey is the active NFL player for now with the highest number of Instagram followers these days.”
127 / belief
“I think if I remember it, the core thesis of our NBA episode is what they got so right through the social media era was give the players the voice, give the players the platform.”
128 / belief
“Rozelle will remain the commissioner and Al Davis is going to go back to running the Raiders, which Davis is fine with, that's all he really wanted anyway. Not announced, but included, this I believe only came out much, much later.”
129 / belief
“Pretty immediately the courts strike down this deal and there's about, I think a one to two month period where it's all in limbo.”
130 / belief
“I think there's definitely scale economies here in the sports entertainment aspect of the product.”
131 / belief
“I think related to that is one, basketball definitely won the social media era in a way, not as to as big a degree as the NFL won the TV era, but basketball's on the rise.”
132 / belief
“Paul Brown was the first modern, not just football coach, but I think sports coach period in America.”
133 / belief
“The distance between Jim Thorpe as an athlete and any other athlete in the world at that point in time was greater than I think that distance has ever been since.”
134 / belief
“I think news just came out today that Bluey is coming to Animal Kingdom in Disney World in 2026.”
135 / belief
“I think on average it's 27, so some skews are selling in two days that they're turning.”
136 / belief
“I think a lot of people think it is an analytical industry, you're learning all about the company, you're doing diligence.”
137 / belief
“I think we told them about the episode. I tell them all them like, you guys got some magic here.”
138 / belief
“I think there are two different things that we're talking about here. One is milking the market, yes or no.”
139 / belief
“We put all this work into finding the best partners for our sponsors in every category that we think are great.”
140 / belief
“I think the whole business side and there's a lot of the content too, but the whole business side of Acquired starts with we were venture capitalists.”
141 / belief
“I repressed this deep down. If I'm honest with myself, I think I felt like a fraud as a VC.”
142 / belief
“If Michael Lewis Inc, we want you to be a sponsor, I would say, we're not coming to pitch you, but we're deciding a year in advance.”
143 / belief
“I got to imagine for your subjects, and I think a big part of us too, is there's the truthy aspect, which is very important, but there's also the, this is going to be great.”
144 / belief
“I think the biggest reason Acquired works is how you started off the conversation.”
145 / belief
“I think we think about narrative structure, acts, and what a story is. When we're reading books sometimes, a lot of books, especially corporate history books are, this happened, then this happened, then this happened, and then this happened.”
146 / belief
“Speaking of sports, mine is The Glue Guys podcast, which I think we both went on this year, which actually was the origin of us meeting.”
147 / belief
“Pepsi, as we’ve discussed, up until Alfred Steele came in, had always been a seat of the pants school of hard knocks management–type company. This person who joins (I think) might have been the first MBA to join the company, and he was one of the very few, even college graduates.”
148 / belief
“I can truthfully say that I haven’t seen smiles spread over a bunch of boys’ faces as they did when they saw Coca-Cola in this godforsaken place.” And then, “If anyone were to ask us what we are fighting for, we think half of us would answer the right to buy Coca-Cola again.”
149 / belief
“As best as I was able to read from a few different sources, I think roughly, once Coca-Cola starts being produced in that first decade, (call it) four or five glasses of Coca-Cola would be about the equivalent of a line of cocaine today.”
150 / belief
“I think Pepsi really becomes the more interesting company than Coke for at least the next, (call it) 30–40 years here after World War II.”
151 / belief
“Atlanta, I think might have been the first major city in America that institutes prohibition and becomes a dry town, no alcohol.”
152 / belief
“I think there is today absolutely no value to the formula. There’s not just a thought exercise, there’s an actual conversation in the appendix of For God, Country, and Coca-Cola.”
153 / belief
“Previously, it was just done state by state, which I think is probably how Coca-Cola trademarked the script logo earlier than that might have just been in Georgia.”
154 / belief
“I think neither Pepsi nor Coke would be what they are today or be as great a product and company as they are today if it weren’t for the other one.”
155 / belief
“I believe the way it ends up coming down is technically yes what you said, Ben, but it applies to any bottler that serves retailers that are located near a military base, regardless of whether that bottler also serves civilian customers.”
156 / belief
“Back in 1967, a young Wharton MBA graduate joins Pepsi after a few years of working at IPG, the big ad agency which owned and I believe still owns McCann Erickson, parent Company of McCann.”
157 / belief
“I think there was an element of the context of the time that came out in 1929, same year as the stock market crash.”
158 / belief
“In our opinion, Coca-Cola could be classified as one of the essential morale building products for the boys in the service.”
159 / belief
“Don’s first job out of college, he worked for I believe a coffee company that ended up getting acquired by Coca-Cola, and that’s how he came into Coca-Cola.”
160 / belief
“The last one I would add is that other than software and technology products, this is the first real physical product I think we’ve ever studied on Acquired, where you can have both a low-selling price and high margins.”
161 / belief
“We have a new type of plastic that we have engineered—polyethylene terephthalate or PET—that we think would be great for this application.”
162 / belief
“Now, there have been great, incredible CEOs in Coca-Cola’s history—Candler, Woodruff, Goizueta. All of them have added on to what the Coca-Cola company is, I think.”
163 / belief
“Once I realized this, I was like, Oh my God, this is genius. They're doing what Joe's always done.”
164 / belief
“I think in this case, though, yeah, probably the fact that Theo Albrecht bought it when Joe needed to sell made a huge, huge, huge difference.”
165 / belief
“I kind of think, reading between the lines of some of the things some of his successors said about him and some of the stuff in his obituaries and press, I think he just really didn't want to travel.”
166 / belief
“The other critical thing I think about private label for Trader Joe's that fits into the next puzzle piece is the marketing strategy.”
167 / belief
“There is demand in other countries for Trader Joe's. I think on that alone, in the fullness of time, can be worth at least 10x.”
168 / belief
“I think most people don't care that much about the other shoppers there. They do actually care about the employees, though.”
169 / belief
“I think if that had happened, DeepMind would not have gone down in the same way, and probably OpenAI would not have gotten founded.”
170 / belief
“I think the only other bear case I would add is that they have the added challenge now of being the incumbent this time around, and people and the ecosystem isn’t necessarily rooting for them in the way that people were rooting for Google when they were a startup, and in the way that people were still rooting for Google in the mobile transition.”
171 / belief
“If we’re going to do one, we should probably launch it before they launch theirs. I think that had something to do with the timing.”
172 / belief
“Google is trying to have all four of those. There is no other company that has (I think) more than one.”
173 / belief
“I think if you look at all the big tech companies, Google, as unlikely as it seems given how things started, is probably doing the best job of trying to thread the needle with AI right now.”
174 / belief
“I think that’s viable. But again, I would say as a regular user of the product, it is a different and expanding product to human ride share.”
175 / belief
“I haven’t been to the movie theater since the Eras tour, which I think is just more about the current state of my family life with two young children.”
176 / belief
“I think at the time that negotiations were taking place between Elon and Larry and Google, this was in the depths of the Model S production scaling woes.”
177 / belief
“I think I might actually, pretty soon, her birthday’s coming up, end up getting a Switch so that we can play together on the Switch.”
178 / belief
“All right, well with that, let’s move into analysis. I think we need to do bull and bear on this one.”
179 / belief
“I think probably some people, probably almost certainly at Google were thinking, oh, we can create narrow intelligence that’ll be better than humans at certain tasks.”
180 / belief
“The Singularity Summit, organized by Ray Kurzweil—a future Google employee (I think), Chief Futurist, noted futurist—Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Peter Thiel.”
181 / belief
“Famously, she used Mechanical Turk on Amazon (I think) to get them all hand-labeled.”
182 / belief
“Sebastian Thrun brings Geoff Hinton into the Google fold after this tech talk, (I think) first as a consultant over the next couple of years, then this is a basic later, Geoff Hinton technically becomes an intern at Google.”
183 / belief
“Tele Atlas and Navtech were multi-billion dollar companies. I think maybe one or both of them were public at some point, then got acquired.”
184 / belief
“All of these incredible advances, this intelligence that we believe is to come will be for the good of everyone, not just for Google and Facebook.”
185 / belief
“As of today in 2025, this paper has been cited over 173,000 times in other academic papers, making it currently the 7th most cited paper of the 21st century. I think all of the other papers above it on the list have been out much longer.”
186 / belief
“I think all that is true. Also in the intervening months to year after this meeting between Demis and Elon and Elon investing in DeepMind, Elon also starts to get really, really excited and convinced about the capabilities of AI in the near term, and specifically the capabilities of AI for Tesla.”
187 / belief
“Then Ben, as you teed up in the intro, the question is why did they do all this? And I think the way to answer it is to start and just tell the stories of all the individual products.”
188 / belief
“Then my quintessence is, it is wild that this one company has eight products with over a billion users and started this era with just one Search that didn’t even have a billion users yet, but Search, Android, Chrome, YouTube, Gmail maps, drive photos, and then if you count the Playstore as separate from Android, which Google does, I think that’s a bit of a stretch.”
189 / belief
“Google Chrome frame was a plugin for Internet Explorer that replaced IE’s JavaScript engine and pulled in the Chrome V8 JavaScript engine and I think also WebKit.”
190 / belief
“I think we’re still in the era of, you can’t even change your wallpaper on the iPhone.”
191 / belief
“We heard in the research that after this deal, Patrick Pichette (I think) was the CFO of Google at the time.”
192 / belief
“I think that happened very quickly. YouTube traffic scaled so fast and so big. You can see how YouTube here, not only are they the correct video platform for the web and just doing it much better than Google’s doing it with Google video.”
193 / belief
“I think all of these things are true. However, having your own browser when Microsoft does launch Bing, hugely, hugely, hugely important.”
194 / belief
“Less than free business model. This is the clearest example of counter positioning I think that has ever existed.”
195 / belief
“Sundar’s personality I think was a way to reunify the company, bring everybody back together.”
196 / belief
“Meta has four. Apple I think only has three, maybe four. The three Apple has for sure are iPhone, iMessage and Safari, iPad maybe I don’t think so.”
197 / belief
“Google doesn’t release usage data for YouTube, but I’m pretty sure that YouTube is the biggest single property on the Internet in terms of minutes spent by humans on it. It’s not, I believe that the biggest number of users on the Internet, both Facebook Blue App and WhatsApp are bigger in terms of total number of users.”
198 / belief
“There are billions and billions of dollars at stake here. But the other part of it too, I think the reason that the smartphone market had stagnated for so long was this.”
199 / belief
“By the way, also since I think the theme of this whole episode is like the dual bottom line to Google of everything they’re doing of both revenue and profits and strategic installation versus other large tech companies.”
200 / belief
“What if we think simpler and we just make a wireless version of this to scan barcodes.”
201 / belief
“Then it was in beta for 10 years. But I think the reason it took so long was this was all new.”
202 / belief
“Then I realized the other as bigger or bigger thing is cloud Google should have been massively investing in cloud.”
203 / belief
“Pretty wild. But to my point about the dollars, so Microsoft’s productivity and business process segment, which is mostly Office—I think LinkedIn is now part of this too—last year generated over $120 billion in revenue.”
204 / belief
“I think if you lumped them all together into Workspace and add Drive, it is over a billion users.”
205 / belief
“Branding, I think in the heyday of Google that we’re talking about in this episode when they’re launching all these incredible products, yes these products won because they’re incredible and because they were free.”
206 / belief
“The ultimate fun coda though is Sam Schillace, founder of Writely, he would go on to manage all of Docs and Sheets. I think he actually managed Maps at some point too.”
207 / belief
“Microsoft can keep all the dollars. All we care about is people use the web. In this instance, particularly with Office and productivity, really this is about putting the screws to Microsoft a little bit and distracting them.”
208 / belief
“I think so. That’s how they take care of the cost side of the equation, is not running out of control is the invite strategy.”
209 / belief
“I think if you look at users of Docs, Sheets, or Slides, it’s in the billion-ish, 500 million billion range for each of those.”
210 / belief
“Friendster was a thing at the time, January, 2004, before Gmail, before the Google IPO, before Facebook launches on the Harvard campus, in his 20% time, he launches a social network within Google called Orkut. It didn’t become that big in America, but it got at its peak, I think 300 million users.”
211 / belief
“Google pioneered all of this, which I think is why in retrospect this IPO is viewed as a famous success.”
212 / belief
“Yup. I think that’s even abstracted. From a computer perspective, they see the master map, they feel like they have access to the whole file, but then what’s actually getting returned to them to operate on is only just the chunk data that they need.”
213 / belief
“Hell, 2002, I was probably just transitioning from using AOL as my way to access the Internet as a senior in high school. I think we had maybe just gotten broadband that year, maybe the year before.”
214 / belief
“Once they saw how well the GoTo and Overture model was working, I think Larry and Sergey were kicking themselves of, we should have just done this from the beginning.”
215 / belief
“I meant magical from an economic standpoint. It is the most magical economic transaction I think ever known man.”
216 / belief
“Also that Overture had really good technology too. I think that is true. But again, back to Google’s infrastructure, the commodity hardware, the scaling out data centers, the distributed file system, and distributed computing, to really scale this, you needed special infrastructure that only they had.”
217 / belief
“If you go to that project homepage, you can find past versions of this on the Internet or images. I think there’s even a recreation of it out there.”
218 / belief
“I think part of the reason Larry and Sergey were like, okay, Sally, new guy, you go do this, is they didn’t actually want to tell VCs that much.”
219 / belief
“I think that picture actually was on backrub.stanford.edu. It looks like somebody’s back.”
220 / belief
“Amazing. But yes, I think the spirit of all these stories is true. It was an instant electric friendship-partnership between the two of them.”
221 / belief
“I think Eric was acceptable to both sides. Both because he was an actual engineer and had been at Sun.”
222 / belief
“Larry’s just like, well F it. This is how I believe search should work. We’re going to build this thing ourselves here at Stanford.”
223 / belief
“I think you called it to us, and when we were talking to you for research, the sun, the moon, and the stars.”
224 / belief
“We digitized, but we didn’t transform in the way that I think people were optimistically hoping for.”
225 / belief
“I think that across those 295 million patients, there’s data from 15 billion individual patient encounters.”
226 / belief
“Thomas’ NHS Trust, which was (I think) their biggest ever single implementation and happening in the UK.”
227 / belief
“In 2006 already, I think everybody knows in America the current healthcare system sucks.”
228 / belief
“I think that’s how you sum up Epic. This altruistic piece is despite certainly being expensive, they basically never raise prices once you’re a customer.”
229 / belief
“To be clear, I think especially after the Kaiser win, Epic was going to become the dominant player anyway, absent of meaningful use.”
230 / belief
“I was trying to square in my mind earlier when we were telling the meaningful use story, how on the one hand it really was obviously good for Epic, an accelerant, and it further cemented the market dynamics where they were already emerging as the leader.”
231 / belief
“I think you could argue that they do have process power, I think is the last one I would say, in their development process, the language that they use, and it being unique to Epic.”
232 / belief
“Judy has announced that upon her death, all of her voting shares, so the 100% voting control that she has at the company, will transfer into a “purpose trust” that will be administered by three constituencies: (1) Her family—her husband Godon if he’s still alive, and their three children, (2) A set of five longtime senior managers from Epic, and (3) I believe three customer CEOs, CEOs of big customers.”
233 / belief
“I think the basic bull case on ambient voice, ambient AI, is this is a great new product revenue opportunity.”
234 / belief
“Here are the doctors who treated those patients, so this has already happening quite a bit (I think) with rare diseases and crazy cases.”
235 / belief
“I believe the Rockefeller Foundation was behind funding all this, call back to our Standard Oil episodes.”
236 / belief
“I think that’s right. Listeners, what we’re talking about is the American Girl doll company founded by Pleasant Rowland in Madison, Wisconsin.”
237 / belief
“I don’t even know if the designers did that, but I think Judy and the company were like, well this feels like a Wisconsin Lakes lodge.”
238 / belief
“Meanwhile, her son (I think) was in seventh grade or something like that, and was doing these programming competitions around the state.”
239 / belief
“I think there may even have been some pipe dreams of like, oh, we’re going to commercialize this and sell it to other hospitals.”
240 / belief
“I think also because the flat organization, you’re also doing it alongside other senior people and learning from them directly.”
241 / belief
“Exactly, there a roll-up. And I think some of their biggest companies are vertical market healthcare and healthcare IT companies within Constellation.”
242 / belief
“On the back of that, in 1992, they launch EpicCare, which I believe is the first graphical user interface, like Windows-based EMR application in the entire industry.”
243 / belief
“I think now is the right time, while we’re talking about the campus and Epic culture, to really talk about Epic culture.”
244 / belief
“I think the answers have gotten out on the Internet, but for a long time was used.”
245 / belief
“I think when you start you have to do five of them, and then you do more every year.”
246 / belief
“Taylor Swift and Oprah, which we’ve talked about, and we did our Taylor Swift update at the Chase Center Show last year. We think the enterprise of Taylor Inc is “only” worth about $11 billion.”
247 / belief
“Do you know what other great American company from Madison, Wisconsin also started in that same office space, and I believe overlapped.”
248 / belief
“Fast forward to today, I think that is actually the single biggest reason why Epic wins over their competitors.”
249 / belief
“I do remember this. I think I might have had one. No, I have one of the U2 iPods, the red and black one.”
250 / belief
“I want to see what it’s like there. She’s really impressed by Redmond as I think anybody who goes there would be.”
251 / belief
“Now you’ve got one of, if not the biggest sports private equity firm in the world—I think Redbird is a $10 billion assets under management firm—coming in and investing in that franchise in the IPL.”
252 / belief
“I think the specific one to IPL—we haven’t talked about this yet—in November, 2024, Viacom 18/Reliance and Star Disney merged in an $8.”
253 / belief
“The euphemism, I believe that the Indian business environment is referred to as a low trust environment; i.”
254 / belief
“Ben, you were mentioning teams running in the red in the English Premier League. This is (I think) beyond just overpaying for players.”
255 / belief
“I would say explosive right away is an understatement, as you might expect, given the incredible architecture of it and Lalit’s force of will personality.”
256 / belief
“I suspect that had the IPL not been such a huge success and Lalit were not looking to tear up the contract, he would not have caught these discrepancies, shall we say.”
257 / belief
“I guess Morris Chang and TSMC too, although Morris over time did get quite a significant stake in TSMC through equity grants, and Dee (I think) got paid quite a bit at Visa too.”
258 / belief
“I believe in fact that when they were talking about this in the locker room, he might have first offered a Rolex and then the players were like, no.”
259 / belief
“Totally all domestic. That brings us to (I think) one of the two biggest wild cards here for the IPL, and that’s the Saudis and Middle East money.”
260 / belief
“I think if you talk to anybody who invests in India, this is the number one challenge for everything.”
261 / belief
“Just for context on that, the most recent 2025 Super Bowl was the biggest Super Bowl ever, and I think de facto that makes it the biggest broadcast TV event in US history.”
262 / belief
“I believe something like less than 20 people have ever done this in history, even to this day.”
263 / belief
“To give you a sense of just how much latent value there is here, I don’t think it goes to auction. I think Sahara just says, okay.”
264 / belief
“Now, another BCCI board member, N Srinivasan, who (I think) by this time had become the chair of the board and was Lalit’s main nemesis on the BCCI board, directly owned the Chennai Super Kings through India Cements.”
265 / belief
“In IPL, even today I think players are getting 12%–15% of the revenue of the league.”
266 / belief
“The best players look “tired.” I think tired is in quotes for cricketers. They can play any day of the week.”
267 / belief
“You bid $100 million, it’s $10 million over 10 years on average, but I’m only going to charge you $5 million in the first. I believe that’s how it was set up.”
268 / belief
“If that current growth rate in the domestic Indian ad market of call it 6%–7% per year sustains over the next 20 years, that I believe compounded over 20 years is about a 10x growth.”
269 / belief
“Preity Zinta’s group gets the Kings XI Punjab for $76 million, suspiciously close in price to the $75 million Shah Rukh Khan bid, but only $1 million more. Anyway, this (I think) is known at the time.”
270 / belief
“I think that might be the story. Either way, to drive a Porsche 911 in India, period, is a big statement.”
271 / belief
“Anyway, all that to say, baseball is the obvious, and I think you have the first example with the Savannah Bananas.”
272 / belief
“I think the issue is just that India is such by far the center of gravity, by which I mean the other billion cricket fans in the world are too dispersed among other countries.”
273 / belief
“To give you a little sense of this, Test cricket and I believe One Day Internationals as well, there are four possible outcomes of the game.”
274 / belief
“December 2017, Disney acquires all of 21st Century Fox for (I think) about $70 billion, inclusive of Star, all the operations in India, and this contract.”
275 / belief
“I think there’s a plausible argument to make on demographics alone that the Indian ad market will support 10x IPL media rights revenues, which gets it into the ballpark of the NFL today.”
276 / belief
“I think if you do that and you have the media rates on par with the NFL, then you bring up the rest of the revenue streams up to on par, now you’re definitely on par with the NFL.”
277 / belief
“Armchair quarterback, armchair GM right now, I think I would diagnose the NBA as fine and in some sense doing better than ever, but some early red flags that in the long run if they don’t manage the game well.”
278 / belief
“Time zones are definitely the biggest challenge here. But if you put that aside, cricket is actually (I think) totally poised to take off in the US for a couple of reasons.”
279 / belief
“I don’t think you can bet on that, but I think you definitely can bet on 2x expansion of just simply inventory of games played, which combine that with 5x expansion in the ad market.”
280 / belief
“My carve out is an oldie but definitely goodie, at least as far as Acquired is concerned, because actually (I think) as much as anything, it was our original inspiration for doing the show.”
281 / belief
“I think if you can find a way to smartly, without risking the economics of the league, upgrade the infrastructure and the stadium infrastructure here, there is just so much low hanging fruit.”
282 / belief
“I think if this hadn’t happened and there’d just been the forcing out of Modi, things might really have gone sideways here because they got so much worse.”
283 / belief
“The maximum salary that he sets for year one is $5 million or maximum purse for the auction. Then that means the minimum purse is (I think) $3.”
284 / belief
“Now, you’re setting up something that in practice, I think the cap probably would do its job and there’s enough policing to ensure that the low trust environment thing you would do would say, oh great.”
285 / belief
“I think that is unlikely because of the hammer that the BCCI has of, hey you Indian players, if you do that will ban you from international competition.”
286 / belief
“I think the Saudis want to get involved, or sovereign wealth funds generally want to get involved because they see this as a great long-term growth investment.”
287 / belief
“Then Facebook and Meta probably care even more because India is (I believe) the largest user base for WhatsApp.”
288 / belief
“Then because they had so much leverage and there was so much money, I think if I remember right when discussions were being bandied about about this happening, Chris was like, I’m just going to go play in the IPL and no longer play international cricket for the West Indies.”
289 / belief
“Point being you can’t police what happens outside of the artificial construct of a direct salary contract negotiation. And the way (I think) this plays out in practice in the NFL is let’s say you’re a player mid- to late-career.”
290 / belief
“Then I think the last playbook theme here for me and for us is just that Moore's Law is undefeated.”
291 / belief
“Kind was doing $1.5 billion in revenue, I believe, almost completely domestically in America.”
292 / belief
“The other aspect about chocolate, though, and I think here is the right place to talk about it, is the industry and what chocolate is, is changing hugely.”
293 / belief
“Then the chocolate inside. They partnered with chocolatiers all over the country, I think maybe even internationally all over the world, to just highlight some of the very best talent in the chocolate-making industry globally.”
294 / belief
“I believe in 2007 they took a large stake, and then in 2015 they fully bought out PetSmart for 100% ownership.”
295 / belief
“Obviously, we did not do a deep dive on the pet business, despite it being the larger business. I think, though, the main power in the pet business is switching costs.”
296 / belief
“His mother, the original Ethel, is actually still alive, and I think he spends a lot of it with her and taking care of her.”
297 / belief
“Having Buffett come in, put his stamp of approval, calm everybody down even in the midst of all the craziness with Lehman, I suspect there’s no way the deal gets done if Berkshire doesn’t get involved.”
298 / belief
“The really big story, though, I think of the brothers’ tenure and Jackie too as a third owner of the business, and eventually later, she does also work in the business herself, is globalization.”
299 / belief
“I was the perfect age. I think Macaulay Culkin and I are roughly the same age, give or take a year.”
300 / belief
“The management of the trust became super removed from the realities of the business and the market. I think that’s how this happened.”
301 / belief
“I think a big part of the strategy, though, like you said about distribution of pet food, in 2002, Mars had bought a French pet food company called Royal Canin, or I’ve also heard it pronounced Royal Canin.”
302 / belief
“With the caveat that those companies and ones like them probably also fit this bill, I think Mars is one of the first modern companies.”
303 / belief
“I wonder, (a) if Forrest would have made a different decision, and also (b), if the brother’s would have made a different decision, had they had a little more confidence in their own security in their own places, CEOs. I think there was a timing element to this.”
304 / belief
“I think the candy industry is much like the luxury industry in that once you have an established product and product brand, it is impossible to kill it.”
305 / belief
“I believe all of which are still operating, making dark chocolate, not milk chocolate, obviously at the time.”
306 / belief
“I think that’s right. It’s super interesting how two manufacturers popped up here in San Francisco in the 1800s.”
307 / belief
“Baby Ruth candy bar named, I think, for President Grover Cleveland’s baby daughter Ruth.”
308 / belief
“Actually, I think if we were to use this, we would divide our profit dollars by the value of the Acquired brand.”
309 / belief
“Even he, I think, probably would have to admit that he’s thankful that Frank does these things.”
310 / belief
“On the other hand, I suspect Forrest also had his ambitions always on coming back to America anyway, and now it seemed like a pretty good time to do it.”
311 / belief
“I suspect they turn profitable on this decision a lot faster than 10 years out, but there are obviously other reasons that Forrest is doing this too.”
312 / belief
“I bet it helped pull in the bank debt because I doubt Mars had significant banking relationships going into this, because they didn’t have any debt.”
313 / belief
“After he retired and the business passed to his sons and the next generation, I think that’s when they adapted that document into the Mars principles.”
314 / belief
“I think regardless of whether Forrest had anything to do with the Milky Way idea, launch, or anything like that, meeting his dad, seeing that there is a business in the family, starts recalibrating Forrest’s ambitions even higher than just being an engineer who can now go run a mine.”
315 / belief
“I’m just purely speculating, but I suspect profit contribution–wise, they’re at least equal, if not bigger on the candy side.”
316 / belief
“I think that’s the standard decoration. Yeah, you can tell how pissed Forrest was at his dad about the Chicago factory specifically, but also just how deep seated this is.”
317 / belief
“All told, all of his sets of companies, I believe here now in the mid- to late-1950s are doing $200 million-ish in revenue.”
318 / belief
“I’m like, which one? I think there are a million of these stories. Even here, in the 30s in the UK, he basically implements the Toyota production system in the Mars factory.”
319 / belief
“I don’t want listeners to get the sense that, oh, it’s just ad agencies that are doing this and it’s advertising. It really is the discipline of marketing, of which ad agencies, I think, were a lot more consultative in this function back in the day.”
320 / belief
“There are also, as always, a couple of versions of this story. But I think the one that is closest to the truth is that back when Forrest was in England, he had gotten to know a chemist who had invented a new method for milling rice that was called parboiling.”