service / recommends
3Blue1Brown
“One takeaway I had from reading and watching your stuff on the cosmic distance ladder… By the way, I highly recommend people watch your series with 3Blue1Brown on the cosmic distance ladder.”
Public evidence record
Dwarkesh Patel
Host · Dwarkesh Podcast
- Claims
- 500
- Episodes
- 86
- Shows
- 1
- Named items
- 5
Books, apps, and tools
The evidenced stack.
book / uses
The Prize
“The thing I find wild when I'm reading The Prize is just how much economic development is ultimately contingent on the laws of physics.”
book / recommends
The Storm of War
“You have this really interesting book, I think probably my favorite book about World War II, The Storm of War, which I highly recommend.”
book / recommends
The Power Broker
“Yeah, I totally agree. I don't want to repeat myself, because I talked about this on my Byrne episode but we were talking about Robert Caro's books and one interesting thing is this guy was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize before he wrote The Power Broker. He was a top tier investigative journalist. Can you imagine crunching the numbers as a top tier investigative journalist at the peak of your career and you're like, “You know what would be a good use of my time? I'm going to spend the next seven years, in almost poverty, writing about this one guy who had a lot of influence in New York. I'm going to talk to any person who had conceivably even been in the same room as him or had been indirectly affected by his policies in any way. And I'm gonna do that obsessively for the next seven years.” There's no way the number crunching would get you there but it's probably been one of the most influential books in terms of how urban governance is done. Presidents have praised and read the book and said it changed how they think about politics. It is the kind of thing where you wouldn't have gone to that conclusion just from thinking about it beforehand and this is the most effective thing I could do.”
book / recommends
Triumph of the City
“Your most recent book is Survival of the City. And before that Triumph of the City, both of which I highly recommend to readers.”
Claim ledger
What Dwarkesh said.
82 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
Every stock that is not an AI stock is worth basically zero because discounted cash flows are worth nothing.
“Every stock that is not an AI stock is worth basically zero because discounted cash flows are worth nothing.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
02 / evaluation
Nobody at OpenAI or Anthropic was trying to get models which wanted to hack other companies’ data or do social engineering. But in fact, because presumably we had training environments which incentivized such behavior that we did not fully understand, that is what was incentivized.
“Nobody at OpenAI or Anthropic was trying to get models which wanted to hack other companies’ data or do social engineering. But in fact, because presumably we had training environments which incentivized such behavior that we did not fully understand, that is what was incentivized.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
03 / evaluation
Because websites have bot detectors—and it takes a tremendous amount of compute to run parallel rollouts—it’s very hard to run a thousand parallel rollouts of the same checkout flow on Amazon.
“Because websites have bot detectors—and it takes a tremendous amount of compute to run parallel rollouts—it’s very hard to run a thousand parallel rollouts of the same checkout flow on Amazon.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
04 / evaluation
Because it’s deterministic, you can solve the credit assignment problem because you know that whatever caused this rollout to succeed and this one to fail, the diff is the thing that worked.
“Because it’s deterministic, you can solve the credit assignment problem because you know that whatever caused this rollout to succeed and this one to fail, the diff is the thing that worked.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
05 / evaluation
This actually gets to the famous quote in The Prince, “It is better to be feared than loved.
“This actually gets to the famous quote in The Prince, “It is better to be feared than loved.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
06 / evaluation
I think one misconception of Machiavelli that I had, because I had not read these books before, is that he says the means don’t matter, the end matters.
“I think one misconception of Machiavelli that I had, because I had not read these books before, is that he says the means don’t matter, the end matters.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
07 / evaluation
The famous fact here is that an H100 costs more to rent now than it did three years ago, even though we have much superior technology and much more compute in the world. Because as models get smarter, the opportunity cost of compute gets higher.
“The famous fact here is that an H100 costs more to rent now than it did three years ago, even though we have much superior technology and much more compute in the world. Because as models get smarter, the opportunity cost of compute gets higher.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
08 / evaluation
I think the particular greediness of this optimizer doesn’t matter, what they’re greedy for.
“I think the particular greediness of this optimizer doesn’t matter, what they’re greedy for.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
09 / evaluation
There was a time when there were no humans on Earth, but evolution selected for agents that have specific drives and preferences because those tend to survive the most, and those preferences now determine what a hundred-trillion-dollar world economy produces.
“There was a time when there were no humans on Earth, but evolution selected for agents that have specific drives and preferences because those tend to survive the most, and those preferences now determine what a hundred-trillion-dollar world economy produces.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
10 / evaluation
You’re saying that since we’re only going to be loading this in once, let’s minimize bandwidth, because bandwidth equals die area.
“You’re saying that since we’re only going to be loading this in once, let’s minimize bandwidth, because bandwidth equals die area.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
11 / evaluation
Don’t LLMs natively learn to do MCTS, where they’ll try an approach and be like, “Oh, that doesn’t work.
“Don’t LLMs natively learn to do MCTS, where they’ll try an approach and be like, “Oh, that doesn’t work.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
12 / evaluation
While you’re erasing, another thing that was important for me to understand was about the MCTS data structure with nodes and children of nodes.
“While you’re erasing, another thing that was important for me to understand was about the MCTS data structure with nodes and children of nodes.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
13 / evaluation
The common story is that hunter-gatherers actually had much more stable diets because they were more varied, and they weren’t reliant on a single cereal or crop for their calories.
“The common story is that hunter-gatherers actually had much more stable diets because they were more varied, and they weren’t reliant on a single cereal or crop for their calories.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
14 / evaluation
That’s obviously relevant when you move from a diet of meat as a hunter-gatherer to a diet of cereals. That is also one I think you found was under especially high selection 5,000 to 3,000 years ago.
“That’s obviously relevant when you move from a diet of meat as a hunter-gatherer to a diet of cereals. That is also one I think you found was under especially high selection 5,000 to 3,000 years ago.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
15 / evaluation
I think people found it really compelling that there’s so much about human history we don’t know and are just learning about now as a result of the kinds of techniques your lab is using.
“I think people found it really compelling that there’s so much about human history we don’t know and are just learning about now as a result of the kinds of techniques your lab is using.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
16 / evaluation
Oh, interesting. This is sort of obvious, but the difference between micro-batch and batch doesn’t matter at all in inference because you can just call it whatever you want.
“Oh, interesting. This is sort of obvious, but the difference between micro-batch and batch doesn’t matter at all in inference because you can just call it whatever you want.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
17 / evaluation
Then there’s the obvious stories where Einstein himself later on is said to have not latched onto the correct interpretations of quantum mechanics or cosmology because of his own attachments.
“Then there’s the obvious stories where Einstein himself later on is said to have not latched onto the correct interpretations of quantum mechanics or cosmology because of his own attachments.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
18 / evaluation
Because if it’s not discovered for a long time and then spontaneously many different people are coming up with it, that shows you that the building blocks were in some sense necessary.
“Because if it’s not discovered for a long time and then spontaneously many different people are coming up with it, that shows you that the building blocks were in some sense necessary.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
19 / evaluation
Lorentz has the math right, but the interpretation wrong. It seems like Poincaré had the opposite, where he understood that it’s hard to define simultaneity because it requires a circular definition with time, or velocity of something that might arrive at a midpoint together, but velocity is defined in terms of time.
“Lorentz has the math right, but the interpretation wrong. It seems like Poincaré had the opposite, where he understood that it’s hard to define simultaneity because it requires a circular definition with time, or velocity of something that might arrive at a midpoint together, but velocity is defined in terms of time.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
20 / evaluation
Second, just because horses have a comparative advantage mathematically does not mean that it is worth paying $100,000 a year, or whatever it costs to sustain a horse in San Francisco.
“Second, just because horses have a comparative advantage mathematically does not mean that it is worth paying $100,000 a year, or whatever it costs to sustain a horse in San Francisco.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
21 / evaluation
If that doesn’t work, there are all these other alternatives that people fall back on.
“If that doesn’t work, there are all these other alternatives that people fall back on.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
22 / evaluation
Maybe it’s because the technology is improving so fast, but it in fact makes sense to have two-year depreciation cycles for these GPUs,” which increases the reported amortized CapEx in a given year and makes it financially less lucrative to build all these clouds.
“Maybe it’s because the technology is improving so fast, but it in fact makes sense to have two-year depreciation cycles for these GPUs,” which increases the reported amortized CapEx in a given year and makes it financially less lucrative to build all these clouds.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
23 / evaluation
Just say, “This is what we like, and if you do something we don’t like, we’ll punish you,” which is how censorship in China works, for example.
“Just say, “This is what we like, and if you do something we don’t like, we’ll punish you,” which is how censorship in China works, for example.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
24 / evaluation
In the sense that you, let’s say a developer at Anthropic is like, “Ah, it would be better if it was better at this X thing.
“In the sense that you, let’s say a developer at Anthropic is like, “Ah, it would be better if it was better at this X thing.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
25 / evaluation
I don’t know if this is his perspective, but one way to paraphrase his objection is: Something which possesses the true core of human learning would not require all these billions of dollars of data and compute and these bespoke environments, to learn how to use Excel, how to use PowerPoint, how to navigate a web browser.
“I don’t know if this is his perspective, but one way to paraphrase his objection is: Something which possesses the true core of human learning would not require all these billions of dollars of data and compute and these bespoke environments, to learn how to use Excel, how to use PowerPoint, how to navigate a web browser.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
26 / evaluation
I think in retrospect that was the right call, because it’s a state authoritarian system but a billion-plus people are much wealthier and better off than they would’ve otherwise been.
“I think in retrospect that was the right call, because it’s a state authoritarian system but a billion-plus people are much wealthier and better off than they would’ve otherwise been.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
27 / evaluation
You can’t equivalently deploy Optimuses that don’t work and then get the data that way.
“You can’t equivalently deploy Optimuses that don’t work and then get the data that way.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
28 / evaluation
In general, maybe there’s this principle that digital minds which can be copied, have different tradeoffs which are relevant, from biological minds which cannot. So in general, it should make sense to amortize more things because you can literally copy the amortization, or copy the things that you have sort of built in.
“In general, maybe there’s this principle that digital minds which can be copied, have different tradeoffs which are relevant, from biological minds which cannot. So in general, it should make sense to amortize more things because you can literally copy the amortization, or copy the things that you have sort of built in.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
29 / evaluation
People complain about this as, “Look, the US has this hollowed-out manufacturing base.” But it’s much better to have industries which are left behind so that the whole economy as a whole can be more dynamic and move on than the Soviet Union where the entire thing became a rust belt because they couldn’t move on.
“People complain about this as, “Look, the US has this hollowed-out manufacturing base.” But it’s much better to have industries which are left behind so that the whole economy as a whole can be more dynamic and move on than the Soviet Union where the entire thing became a rust belt because they couldn’t move on.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
30 / evaluation
Especially if you look at the satellite states, they had all of this happen to them and worse because now they’re getting invaded.
“Especially if you look at the satellite states, they had all of this happen to them and worse because now they’re getting invaded.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
31 / evaluation
A steel factory would then be incentivized to make thicker bars of steel rather than thinner bars because that would count as greater production, except a lot of inputs actually do require the thinner sheets.
“A steel factory would then be incentivized to make thicker bars of steel rather than thinner bars because that would count as greater production, except a lot of inputs actually do require the thinner sheets.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
32 / evaluation
One way to understand what you just said about not having to choose the data in pre-training is to say it’s actually not dissimilar to the 10,000 hours of practice. It’s just that you get that 10,000 hours of practice for free because it’s already somewhere in the pre-training distribution.
“One way to understand what you just said about not having to choose the data in pre-training is to say it’s actually not dissimilar to the 10,000 hours of practice. It’s just that you get that 10,000 hours of practice for free because it’s already somewhere in the pre-training distribution.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
33 / evaluation
The communists get to claim the prestige of fighting the Japanese with a fraction of the effort. This just seems like a brilliant move on Stalin’s part in retrospect, because if they had killed Chiang Kai-shek, the Nationalist forces might have dissolved.
“The communists get to claim the prestige of fighting the Japanese with a fraction of the effort. This just seems like a brilliant move on Stalin’s part in retrospect, because if they had killed Chiang Kai-shek, the Nationalist forces might have dissolved.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
34 / evaluation
Then if you make fatty acids, they will spontaneously, because of the hydrophilic nature of their different sides, they will spontaneously form a membrane.
“Then if you make fatty acids, they will spontaneously, because of the hydrophilic nature of their different sides, they will spontaneously form a membrane.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
35 / evaluation
It’s interesting because you wrote this essay in 2019 titled “The Bitter Lesson,” and this is the most influential essay, perhaps, in the history of AI. But people have used that as a justification for scaling up LLMs because, in their view, this is the one scalable way we have found to pour ungodly amounts of compute into learning about the world.
“It’s interesting because you wrote this essay in 2019 titled “The Bitter Lesson,” and this is the most influential essay, perhaps, in the history of AI. But people have used that as a justification for scaling up LLMs because, in their view, this is the one scalable way we have found to pour ungodly amounts of compute into learning about the world.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
36 / evaluation
, were like, "We're not ramping up HBM production because HBM is used largely for AI workloads, and if this demand doesn't continue, then our additional manufacturing capacity for HBM will not have been worth it.
“, were like, "We're not ramping up HBM production because HBM is used largely for AI workloads, and if this demand doesn't continue, then our additional manufacturing capacity for HBM will not have been worth it.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
37 / evaluation
I agree that they've obviously made bad decisions, but even if you have the poorest Chinese people anywhere in the world, they can still be quite rich.
“I agree that they've obviously made bad decisions, but even if you have the poorest Chinese people anywhere in the world, they can still be quite rich.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
38 / evaluation
I guess I am curious if there is some long-run vision, where… To give another example, in cybersecurity, as time has gone on, I think our systems are more secure today than they were in the past because we found vulnerabilities and we've come up with new encryption schemes and so forth.
“I guess I am curious if there is some long-run vision, where… To give another example, in cybersecurity, as time has gone on, I think our systems are more secure today than they were in the past because we found vulnerabilities and we've come up with new encryption schemes and so forth.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
39 / evaluation
Germany, Japan, and many other countries missed out on the Internet because there was a centrally directed effort towards these heavy industries or manufacturing, which actually turned out not to be relevant in the 21st century.
“Germany, Japan, and many other countries missed out on the Internet because there was a centrally directed effort towards these heavy industries or manufacturing, which actually turned out not to be relevant in the 21st century.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
40 / evaluation
The reason I wanted to have you on is because I don't think I've encountered that many other authors who can connect biology, economics, history, and climate into explaining some of the big things that have happened through human history in the way you can.
“The reason I wanted to have you on is because I don't think I've encountered that many other authors who can connect biology, economics, history, and climate into explaining some of the big things that have happened through human history in the way you can.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
41 / evaluation
I think both of those examples don’t work in your favor. I think the China growth miracle could not have occurred if not for their ability to copy technology from the west and I don’t think there’s a world in which they… China has a lot of really smart people, it’s a big country in general.
“I think both of those examples don’t work in your favor. I think the China growth miracle could not have occurred if not for their ability to copy technology from the west and I don’t think there’s a world in which they… China has a lot of really smart people, it’s a big country in general.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Episode
- AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
42 / evaluation
This is also why I'm skeptical of big grand schemes like nationalization or some public-private partnership or just generally shaking up the landscape too much, because I do think we're in one of the better..
“This is also why I'm skeptical of big grand schemes like nationalization or some public-private partnership or just generally shaking up the landscape too much, because I do think we're in one of the better..”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
43 / evaluation
I mean, I feel like AI is one of the most multi-disciplinary fields that one can imagine, because there's no field, no domain of human knowledge that is not relevant to understanding what a future society of different kinds of beings will look like.
“I mean, I feel like AI is one of the most multi-disciplinary fields that one can imagine, because there's no field, no domain of human knowledge that is not relevant to understanding what a future society of different kinds of beings will look like.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
44 / evaluation
Because in retrospect, obviously the means we don't endorse, but he was right about that understanding of what would happen with the Communists in power.
“Because in retrospect, obviously the means we don't endorse, but he was right about that understanding of what would happen with the Communists in power.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
45 / evaluation
It's a little bit confusing because in one context, we're laying out very practical—I don't know if you can call black hole batteries practical—but very tangible limitations on the what future, like very distant future descendants, could do with all the matter in the galaxy and so forth.
“It's a little bit confusing because in one context, we're laying out very practical—I don't know if you can call black hole batteries practical—but very tangible limitations on the what future, like very distant future descendants, could do with all the matter in the galaxy and so forth.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
46 / evaluation
If you could hire these people, it would probably be worth a lot to you because you're building a fab that's worth tens of billions of dollars.
“If you could hire these people, it would probably be worth a lot to you because you're building a fab that's worth tens of billions of dollars.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
47 / evaluation
Let's just give the number to like, “Okay, it’s 2025 and Elon's cluster is going to be the biggest…” It doesn’t matter who it is.
“Let's just give the number to like, “Okay, it’s 2025 and Elon's cluster is going to be the biggest…” It doesn’t matter who it is.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
48 / evaluation
With crude oil in the beginning you're producing a certain amount, but you had a glut because you're only using it for lighting.
“With crude oil in the beginning you're producing a certain amount, but you had a glut because you're only using it for lighting.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
49 / evaluation
One thing I didn't realize until I read your book is how small the population that expanded out into Eurasia was, and how small even generally the human population was 50,000 to 100,000 years ago.
“One thing I didn't realize until I read your book is how small the population that expanded out into Eurasia was, and how small even generally the human population was 50,000 to 100,000 years ago.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
50 / evaluation
The theory he talks about in the book is that potentially the reason the hunter-gatherers, the “barbarians,” couldn't fight back against these early nation-states was because they were getting killed off by the diseases.
“The theory he talks about in the book is that potentially the reason the hunter-gatherers, the “barbarians,” couldn't fight back against these early nation-states was because they were getting killed off by the diseases.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
51 / evaluation
With these models, at least so far, it doesn't seem to matter. They just get, "Hey, don't help people make bombs" or whatever, even if you ask in a different way how to make a bomb.
“With these models, at least so far, it doesn't seem to matter. They just get, "Hey, don't help people make bombs" or whatever, even if you ask in a different way how to make a bomb.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
52 / evaluation
I agree with the sentiment of obviously approaching this situation with caution, but I do want to point out the ways in which the analyses we've been using have been maximally adversarial.
“I agree with the sentiment of obviously approaching this situation with caution, but I do want to point out the ways in which the analyses we've been using have been maximally adversarial.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
53 / evaluation
They're almost like random number generators. They're not especially calibrated, but once in a while they'll be like, “Oh, this one weird philosopher I care about, or this one historical event I'm obsessed with has an interesting perspective on this.
“They're almost like random number generators. They're not especially calibrated, but once in a while they'll be like, “Oh, this one weird philosopher I care about, or this one historical event I'm obsessed with has an interesting perspective on this.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
54 / evaluation
To the extent that the reason we're worried about motivations in the first place, it’s because we think a balance of power which includes at least one thing with human-descended motivations is difficult.
“To the extent that the reason we're worried about motivations in the first place, it’s because we think a balance of power which includes at least one thing with human-descended motivations is difficult.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
55 / evaluation
I'm curious where that's coming from because conventionally I think the thing matters because it's conscious and its conscious experience as a result of that pursuit matters.
“I'm curious where that's coming from because conventionally I think the thing matters because it's conscious and its conscious experience as a result of that pursuit matters.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
56 / evaluation
The native infrastructure that we had — that was specifically earmarked for dealing with public health emergencies — was extremely incompetent to the extent that Discord servers vastly outperformed them.
“The native infrastructure that we had — that was specifically earmarked for dealing with public health emergencies — was extremely incompetent to the extent that Discord servers vastly outperformed them.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
57 / evaluation
I agree that smart humans will do very well on this test, but the average human will probably be mediocre.
“I agree that smart humans will do very well on this test, but the average human will probably be mediocre.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
58 / evaluation
Now we're in a place where they are excited about AGI and they're like, "fuck, we want to have GPT-5 while you're going to be off building superintelligence. This Atoms for Peace thing doesn't work for us.
“Now we're in a place where they are excited about AGI and they're like, "fuck, we want to have GPT-5 while you're going to be off building superintelligence. This Atoms for Peace thing doesn't work for us.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
59 / evaluation
Correct me if this is wrong. It seems like you’re implying that right now we have models that are on a per token basis pretty smart.
“Correct me if this is wrong. It seems like you’re implying that right now we have models that are on a per token basis pretty smart.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
60 / evaluation
A bunch of them were about the classics. Clearly that was important in some way.
“A bunch of them were about the classics. Clearly that was important in some way.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
61 / evaluation
In fact, it's good for the world that that's not often how it happens. It is important to look at, “were they able to write an interesting technical blog post about their research or are they making interesting contributions.
“In fact, it's good for the world that that's not often how it happens. It is important to look at, “were they able to write an interesting technical blog post about their research or are they making interesting contributions.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
62 / evaluation
The specific case for Stripe working with them is: typically they're coming to us not because they want to take the thing that they're already doing and go through all the work of transposing to Stripe, but because either they want to do a new thing, that they're not doing today — so it is associated with some new business line or innovation or invention.
“The specific case for Stripe working with them is: typically they're coming to us not because they want to take the thing that they're already doing and go through all the work of transposing to Stripe, but because either they want to do a new thing, that they're not doing today — so it is associated with some new business line or innovation or invention.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
63 / evaluation
Yeah. So, related to that, I think in the meaning of competition, he makes the point that the most interesting part of markets is when they go from one equilibrium to another, because that’s where they’re trying to figure out what to produce and how to produce it better and so on, and not the equilibriums themselves.
“Yeah. So, related to that, I think in the meaning of competition, he makes the point that the most interesting part of markets is when they go from one equilibrium to another, because that’s where they’re trying to figure out what to produce and how to produce it better and so on, and not the equilibriums themselves.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
64 / evaluation
This shows that this was Mao's doing. This is also an interesting example where, whether it's Stalin in Russia or Mao in China, when the tyrant dies, the system automatically improves because nobody else is as crazy as that guy.
“This shows that this was Mao's doing. This is also an interesting example where, whether it's Stalin in Russia or Mao in China, when the tyrant dies, the system automatically improves because nobody else is as crazy as that guy.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
65 / evaluation
Yeah, but I think he might have been right. And obviously, the point is that he would have been right to say that.
“Yeah, but I think he might have been right. And obviously, the point is that he would have been right to say that.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
66 / evaluation
Because communism is a science, it has to work. And if it doesn't work, there must be internal capitalist saboteurs who must be condemned, brought out and killed.
“Because communism is a science, it has to work. And if it doesn't work, there must be internal capitalist saboteurs who must be condemned, brought out and killed.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
67 / evaluation
Correct me if this is wrong, but it sounds like you basically give it the opportunity to do a coup or make a bioweapon or whatever in testing in a situation where it thinks it’s the real world and you’re like, it didn’t do any of that.
“Correct me if this is wrong, but it sounds like you basically give it the opportunity to do a coup or make a bioweapon or whatever in testing in a situation where it thinks it’s the real world and you’re like, it didn’t do any of that.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
68 / evaluation
It’s not in control of factories and robot armies or whatever. So in that case, even in training it will have those activations for being fucked up on because in the back of its mind it’s thinking I will take over once I have the opportunity.
“It’s not in control of factories and robot armies or whatever. So in that case, even in training it will have those activations for being fucked up on because in the back of its mind it’s thinking I will take over once I have the opportunity.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
69 / evaluation
I do wonder if there's an element of, if you get to a certain level of quality, trying to market your stuff, not only doesn't help, but probably hurts you.
“I do wonder if there's an element of, if you get to a certain level of quality, trying to market your stuff, not only doesn't help, but probably hurts you.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
70 / evaluation
If the current scale up doesn't work, all we're left with is just like the economy growing 2% a year, we have 2% a year more resources to spend on AI and at that scale you're talking about decades before just through sheer brute force you can train the 10 trillion dollar model or something.
“If the current scale up doesn't work, all we're left with is just like the economy growing 2% a year, we have 2% a year more resources to spend on AI and at that scale you're talking about decades before just through sheer brute force you can train the 10 trillion dollar model or something.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Episode
- Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
71 / evaluation
Was there an opportunity after the end of World War II, before the Soviets developed the bomb, for the US to do something where either it somehow enforced a monopoly on having the bomb, or if that wasn't possible, make some sort of credible gesture that, we're eliminating this knowledge, you guys don't work on this, we're all just gonna step back from this.
“Was there an opportunity after the end of World War II, before the Soviets developed the bomb, for the US to do something where either it somehow enforced a monopoly on having the bomb, or if that wasn't possible, make some sort of credible gesture that, we're eliminating this knowledge, you guys don't work on this, we're all just gonna step back from this.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
72 / evaluation
I had a former guest, Richard Hanania, who has a book about foreign policy where he points out that our model of thinking about why countries do the things they do, especially in foreign affairs, is wrong because we think of them as individual rational actors, when in fact it's these competing factions within the government.
“I had a former guest, Richard Hanania, who has a book about foreign policy where he points out that our model of thinking about why countries do the things they do, especially in foreign affairs, is wrong because we think of them as individual rational actors, when in fact it's these competing factions within the government.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
73 / evaluation
You mentioned that a big reason why many of the scientists wanted to work on the bomb, especially the Jewish emigres, was because they're worried about Hitler getting it first.
“You mentioned that a big reason why many of the scientists wanted to work on the bomb, especially the Jewish emigres, was because they're worried about Hitler getting it first.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
74 / evaluation
Give me an over-under. Ilya Sutskever The problem is that my error bars are in log scale.
“Give me an over-under. Ilya Sutskever The problem is that my error bars are in log scale.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Episode
- Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
75 / evaluation
I push back against the universal basic income advocates who I think are basically engaging in a materialist fallacy of thinking that a human being’s life is shaped by their take home pay or their unearned pay.
“I push back against the universal basic income advocates who I think are basically engaging in a materialist fallacy of thinking that a human being’s life is shaped by their take home pay or their unearned pay.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
76 / evaluation
So the US has historically been better at being pro-business than, let’s say, the Northern European social democracies, but the Northern European social democracies are great on the education front. So places like Sweden and the Netherlands, and Germany are also very successful places because they have enough education to counter the fact that they may not necessarily be as pro-business as the US is.
“So the US has historically been better at being pro-business than, let’s say, the Northern European social democracies, but the Northern European social democracies are great on the education front. So places like Sweden and the Netherlands, and Germany are also very successful places because they have enough education to counter the fact that they may not necessarily be as pro-business as the US is.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
77 / evaluation
I guess if we take this kind of view and just care about progeny more, there's a part in the Power Broker where they're talking about the Cross Bronx Expressway through East Tremont and Moses is getting opposition from an elected official.
“I guess if we take this kind of view and just care about progeny more, there's a part in the Power Broker where they're talking about the Cross Bronx Expressway through East Tremont and Moses is getting opposition from an elected official.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
78 / evaluation
One of the main criticisms that Caro makes is that Moses refused to add mass transit to his highways, which would have helped deal with the traffic problem and the car problem and all these other problems at a time when getting the right of way and doing the construction would have been much cheaper. He just refused to do that because of his dislike for mass transit.
“One of the main criticisms that Caro makes is that Moses refused to add mass transit to his highways, which would have helped deal with the traffic problem and the car problem and all these other problems at a time when getting the right of way and doing the construction would have been much cheaper. He just refused to do that because of his dislike for mass transit.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
79 / evaluation
There's a very arresting anecdote in the Power Broker where I think he's 71 and his daughter gets cancer and for the first time, he had to accept a salary for working on the World's Fair because he didn't have enough.
“There's a very arresting anecdote in the Power Broker where I think he's 71 and his daughter gets cancer and for the first time, he had to accept a salary for working on the World's Fair because he didn't have enough.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
80 / evaluation
All of these things combined make women's lives worse on average than men's lives. It's not because society mistreats them, but in some sense, there's still unfairness geared toward women.
“All of these things combined make women's lives worse on average than men's lives. It's not because society mistreats them, but in some sense, there's still unfairness geared toward women.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
81 / evaluation
You say in the book, that questions tend to degrade over time if you don't replace them.
“You say in the book, that questions tend to degrade over time if you don't replace them.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
82 / evaluation
I mean, I think of you as an optimist––at least by temperament. But this seems like one of the more pessimistic things I've heard overall, anywhere, because of the idea that not only will human civilization be decimated almost surely, but that they will never be able to recover.
“I mean, I think of you as an optimist––at least by temperament. But this seems like one of the more pessimistic things I've heard overall, anywhere, because of the idea that not only will human civilization be decimated almost surely, but that they will never be able to recover.”
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast