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David Reich — How one small tribe conquered the world 70,000 years ago

29 Aug 2024 23 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

David ReichDwarkesh Patel

Claim mix

uncertainty 9evaluation 8belief 2observation 1prediction 1recommendation 1commitment 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

23 published records

01 / evaluation

The great majority of the ancestors of modern humans, for example in Eurasia, are not from the initial Upper Paleolithic ones. They’re from a later wave from the core in the Near East after 39,000 years ago, that repeoples a place that's been affected by these sparks coming out of the same region.

“The great majority of the ancestors of modern humans, for example in Eurasia, are not from the initial Upper Paleolithic ones. They’re from a later wave from the core in the Near East after 39,000 years ago, that repeoples a place that's been affected by these sparks coming out of the same region.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / observation

Certainly it's been absolutely central at many periods in human history. But in this key period when a lot of important changes happen—when modern humans develop from Homo habilis and Homo erectus all the way to Homo heidelbergensis and the shared ancestor of Neanderthals, modern humans, and Denisovans— that time period which is when a lot of the important change happened, it's not clear, based on the archaeology and genetics, where that occurred as I understand it.

“Certainly it's been absolutely central at many periods in human history. But in this key period when a lot of important changes happen—when modern humans develop from Homo habilis and Homo erectus all the way to Homo heidelbergensis and the shared ancestor of Neanderthals, modern humans, and Denisovans— that time period which is when a lot of the important change happened, it's not clear, based on the archaeology and genetics, where that occurred as I understand it.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

03 / belief

I think you can. People have tried to make animations like this in some ways. But one way to think about it is that there's a huge danger in being too interested in yourself.

“I think you can. People have tried to make animations like this in some ways. But one way to think about it is that there's a huge danger in being too interested in yourself.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

06 / uncertainty

I don't know. Here’s one thing that is really interesting. A couple of years ago, we published a paper on relatively recent hunter-gatherer populations from mostly eastern and central Africa in order to be able to discern these deep population exchanges that we would really like to know in order to understand human evolution.

“I don't know. Here’s one thing that is really interesting. A couple of years ago, we published a paper on relatively recent hunter-gatherer populations from mostly eastern and central Africa in order to be able to discern these deep population exchanges that we would really like to know in order to understand human evolution.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

07 / uncertainty

I don't know. It's very speculative. I'm very tempted to think that there's so many of these groups that some of them would eventually have gone down this route.

“I don't know. It's very speculative. I'm very tempted to think that there's so many of these groups that some of them would eventually have gone down this route.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / uncertainty

We don't know that. We just know that today we have it. It could have been only a couple of hundred thousand years ago or 100,000 years ago that these changes happened.

“We don't know that. We just know that today we have it. It could have been only a couple of hundred thousand years ago or 100,000 years ago that these changes happened.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / uncertainty

The bottleneck occurred well before the mixture with Neanderthals, which is probably somewhere like 50,000 years ago, plus or minus 5000 years or something. We don't know where it occurred.

“The bottleneck occurred well before the mixture with Neanderthals, which is probably somewhere like 50,000 years ago, plus or minus 5000 years or something. We don't know where it occurred.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

14 / prediction

We think we have many hundreds of places where there's been very strong change in frequency over time, where we're confident, We think there are many thousands where we can see traces, the whole genome is seething with these changes in this period.

“We think we have many hundreds of places where there's been very strong change in frequency over time, where we're confident, We think there are many thousands where we can see traces, the whole genome is seething with these changes in this period.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

15 / evaluation

About 10,000 years ago, the ancestors of people in Tasmania—this large island south of Australia—were continuous with the aboriginal populations of Australia. They had fire, but they lost it because it got forgotten somehow.

“About 10,000 years ago, the ancestors of people in Tasmania—this large island south of Australia—were continuous with the aboriginal populations of Australia. They had fire, but they lost it because it got forgotten somehow.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / evaluation

In the Netherlands, for example, hunter-gatherers survive for several thousand more years than in the surrounding areas, probably because they're exploiting the wetlands.

“In the Netherlands, for example, hunter-gatherers survive for several thousand more years than in the surrounding areas, probably because they're exploiting the wetlands.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

18 / evaluation

One of the main arguments for the Anatolian hypothesis was that steppe expansions could not have been demographically significant because they were much thinner on the ground than farming expansions.

“One of the main arguments for the Anatolian hypothesis was that steppe expansions could not have been demographically significant because they were much thinner on the ground than farming expansions.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

19 / evaluation

The way in which it's a bait-and-switch title is you might read it thinking you're going to learn something about how we became whatever we think is distinctive about us relative to other animals.

“The way in which it's a bait-and-switch title is you might read it thinking you're going to learn something about how we became whatever we think is distinctive about us relative to other animals.”
Speaker
David Reich
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

21 / evaluation

One thing I didn't realize until I read your book is how small the population that expanded out into Eurasia was, and how small even generally the human population was 50,000 to 100,000 years ago.

“One thing I didn't realize until I read your book is how small the population that expanded out into Eurasia was, and how small even generally the human population was 50,000 to 100,000 years ago.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

23 / evaluation

The theory he talks about in the book is that potentially the reason the hunter-gatherers, the “barbarians,” couldn't fight back against these early nation-states was because they were getting killed off by the diseases.

“The theory he talks about in the book is that potentially the reason the hunter-gatherers, the “barbarians,” couldn't fight back against these early nation-states was because they were getting killed off by the diseases.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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