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Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

25 Aug 2026 18 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Dylan PatelDwarkesh Patel

Claim mix

evaluation 6belief 5prediction 4uncertainty 1recommendation 1observation 1

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18 published records

02 / prediction

Next year, a big new entrant is, for example, SpaceX, which is building a ton of compute. They’re actively going to lease quite a bit of it to Anthropic and OpenAI, most likely, because they’re the ones who have the marginal capability to pay the highest price.

“Next year, a big new entrant is, for example, SpaceX, which is building a ton of compute. They’re actively going to lease quite a bit of it to Anthropic and OpenAI, most likely, because they’re the ones who have the marginal capability to pay the highest price.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / belief

When I interviewed you a few months ago, you said that in order to make a gigawatt of, I think, Vera Rubins, you need 55,000 N3 wafers, 6K N5 wafers, and 170K DRAM wafers.

“When I interviewed you a few months ago, you said that in order to make a gigawatt of, I think, Vera Rubins, you need 55,000 N3 wafers, 6K N5 wafers, and 170K DRAM wafers.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / belief

I think the fundamental problem is that AI training has huge economies of scale, because any effort you spend on training an AI for a specific skill or a specific set of knowledge gets amortized across billions of sessions or billions of users.

“I think the fundamental problem is that AI training has huge economies of scale, because any effort you spend on training an AI for a specific skill or a specific set of knowledge gets amortized across billions of sessions or billions of users.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / evaluation

They’re not adding $25 billion of ARR every month now. That means the marginal megawatt they’re getting is going as a higher percentage to R&D than it is to inference.

“They’re not adding $25 billion of ARR every month now. That means the marginal megawatt they’re getting is going as a higher percentage to R&D than it is to inference.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

11 / evaluation

Because they know their revenue from it’s going to be huge, and they’re going to pay 20% because it’s still better than renting it from SpaceX for $50 billion a gigawatt.

“Because they know their revenue from it’s going to be huge, and they’re going to pay 20% because it’s still better than renting it from SpaceX for $50 billion a gigawatt.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

13 / observation

You’ve seen people do funny arbitrages here where they buy turbines and then try and resell them, because the value of a turbine is way more since it’s the thing bottlenecking your data center.

“You’ve seen people do funny arbitrages here where they buy turbines and then try and resell them, because the value of a turbine is way more since it’s the thing bottlenecking your data center.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

14 / prediction

Anthropic not releasing what their safety assessment says is Model 2, which is widely believed to be the next version of Mythos. They’re clearly not releasing their best models, in which case their revenue per megawatt stalls or can even start to decline again because other models are competitive again.

“Anthropic not releasing what their safety assessment says is Model 2, which is widely believed to be the next version of Mythos. They’re clearly not releasing their best models, in which case their revenue per megawatt stalls or can even start to decline again because other models are competitive again.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

15 / evaluation

Many of these hyperscalers were building infrastructure without knowing if there was going to be a payoff. So ultimately you had this negative value being created on the model layer, if you will, because they were selling the tokens for less than it cost them on the infra side.

“Many of these hyperscalers were building infrastructure without knowing if there was going to be a payoff. So ultimately you had this negative value being created on the model layer, if you will, because they were selling the tokens for less than it cost them on the infra side.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / evaluation

When Amazon is serving Bedrock Anthropic models, that counts as Anthropic compute in our worldview, because it is effectively, at the end of the day, counted as revenue for Anthropic even though there’s a revenue share and credit back all that.

“When Amazon is serving Bedrock Anthropic models, that counts as Anthropic compute in our worldview, because it is effectively, at the end of the day, counted as revenue for Anthropic even though there’s a revenue share and credit back all that.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

18 / evaluation

We can talk all we want about how they went from $20 million per megawatt to $100 million per megawatt, but they’re still paying $13 million for a lot of the compute they’re buying. But at the end of the day, the reason they’ve gone to $100 million per megawatt is because Jane Street is capturing $300 million per megawatt or $500 million per megawatt.

“We can talk all we want about how they went from $20 million per megawatt to $100 million per megawatt, but they’re still paying $13 million for a lot of the compute they’re buying. But at the end of the day, the reason they’ve gone to $100 million per megawatt is because Jane Street is capturing $300 million per megawatt or $500 million per megawatt.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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