Dylan Patel: evaluation

Transcript context

…I think this is an interesting economics question that I feel we can have the models digest. What would have to be true about a world where they reduce the fraction of compute spent on inference? I think they have been over the last three months already. I think at parts of this year, they were increasing the fraction of compute… Let’s just take it month by month. You would agree that every month, Anthropic has added more compute than the prior month. There might be some noise when they sign a SpaceX deal or whatever, but in general, the amount of compute is a curve up. So in January, they added less compute than December, and yet their revenue adds skyrocketed. Then they’ve sort of plateaued. They’re not adding $25 billion of ARR every month now. That means the marginal megawatt they’re getting is going as a higher percentage to R&D than it is to inference. So they are factually increasing their compute towards R&D today. I think this is self-evident if you look enough at what they’re doing. If I look at the numbers you said for how fast world compute grows, here are some things I want to understand. It seems like if I add up the numbers you just said, it would be over 200 gigawatts of world compute by the end of 2028, right?…

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