Dwarkesh Patel: uncertainty

Transcript context

…Yeah, $100K per person, million population. I don’t know. But it would be many hundreds of billions of dollars per gigawatt if you get full AGI. The other aspect of this — and we’ve continued to see this — is that most of the value capture is not happening. Most of the value that these models generate does not get given to OpenAI and Anthropic. Thankfully, so far it is mostly just being given to the users. Jane Street, with their exclusive contract with OpenAI for GPT-5.6 Ultrafast mode, or Jane Street where they’re one of Anthropic’s biggest customers, is generating way, way, way more value out of the tokens they’re paying for than Anthropic is generating in terms of profit, because they get to make money off of the market. Or take Meta, who at one point was rumored to be as much as 10% of Anthropic’s business. They’re generating way more efficiencies by optimizing their ad algorithms or what have you, getting engagement time 5% longer, all these things. They’re making way more money off of using these models than Anthropic is. That’s what’s required. Sure, if you had a million new software engineers, the cost for a software engineer would also fall.…

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