service / recommends
3Blue1Brown
“One takeaway I had from reading and watching your stuff on the cosmic distance ladder… By the way, I highly recommend people watch your series with 3Blue1Brown on the cosmic distance ladder.”
Public evidence record
Dwarkesh Patel
Host · Dwarkesh Podcast
- Claims
- 500
- Episodes
- 86
- Shows
- 1
- Named items
- 5
Books, apps, and tools
The evidenced stack.
book / uses
The Prize
“The thing I find wild when I'm reading The Prize is just how much economic development is ultimately contingent on the laws of physics.”
book / recommends
The Storm of War
“You have this really interesting book, I think probably my favorite book about World War II, The Storm of War, which I highly recommend.”
book / recommends
The Power Broker
“Yeah, I totally agree. I don't want to repeat myself, because I talked about this on my Byrne episode but we were talking about Robert Caro's books and one interesting thing is this guy was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize before he wrote The Power Broker. He was a top tier investigative journalist. Can you imagine crunching the numbers as a top tier investigative journalist at the peak of your career and you're like, “You know what would be a good use of my time? I'm going to spend the next seven years, in almost poverty, writing about this one guy who had a lot of influence in New York. I'm going to talk to any person who had conceivably even been in the same room as him or had been indirectly affected by his policies in any way. And I'm gonna do that obsessively for the next seven years.” There's no way the number crunching would get you there but it's probably been one of the most influential books in terms of how urban governance is done. Presidents have praised and read the book and said it changed how they think about politics. It is the kind of thing where you wouldn't have gone to that conclusion just from thinking about it beforehand and this is the most effective thing I could do.”
book / recommends
Triumph of the City
“Your most recent book is Survival of the City. And before that Triumph of the City, both of which I highly recommend to readers.”
Claim ledger
What Dwarkesh said.
36 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
I think the more relevant thing is: what is the data on which whatever architecture or loss function you have is incentivizing you to produce?
“I think the more relevant thing is: what is the data on which whatever architecture or loss function you have is incentivizing you to produce?”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
02 / prediction
The funny thing is, I think we are entering a new era where that might be once again possible. It already is somewhat true, where at least half of the words I read on a given day are generated specifically for me and nobody else, because of AI.
“The funny thing is, I think we are entering a new era where that might be once again possible. It already is somewhat true, where at least half of the words I read on a given day are generated specifically for me and nobody else, because of AI.”
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03 / prediction
But there’s going to be some allocative inefficiency. The government doesn’t know exactly who got laid off because of AI.
“But there’s going to be some allocative inefficiency. The government doesn’t know exactly who got laid off because of AI.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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04 / prediction
A lot of things in the machine-only economy are a closed loop because the machines don’t care about getting the human barista to make them a coffee.
“A lot of things in the machine-only economy are a closed loop because the machines don’t care about getting the human barista to make them a coffee.”
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05 / prediction
The more you think our economy is going to be run on AGI the way our economy currently runs on electricity—that is, there’s a broad fundamental transformation of the entire economy—the more it looks like electricity… Every company in the S&P of the future, if it’s going to make it to the S&P 500, it is because it has leveraged AI.
“The more you think our economy is going to be run on AGI the way our economy currently runs on electricity—that is, there’s a broad fundamental transformation of the entire economy—the more it looks like electricity… Every company in the S&P of the future, if it’s going to make it to the S&P 500, it is because it has leveraged AI.”
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06 / prediction
Because ln(n) grows slower than n, over time you will move from the argmax being dominated by the exploration term, which is the second term here, to the argmax being dominated by the Q term, which is when you’ve done enough simulations and are confident that this is the branch to go down.
“Because ln(n) grows slower than n, over time you will move from the argmax being dominated by the exploration term, which is the second term here, to the argmax being dominated by the Q term, which is when you’ve done enough simulations and are confident that this is the branch to go down.”
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07 / prediction
Second is it might not have been, but because our civilizational resources are so large, the amount of people is so large, the amount of money is so large, we can basically make the kind of progress it would have taken the ancients forever to make almost immediately.
“Second is it might not have been, but because our civilizational resources are so large, the amount of people is so large, the amount of money is so large, we can basically make the kind of progress it would have taken the ancients forever to make almost immediately.”
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08 / prediction
As a result, that will push people to be willing to pay higher margins for slightly better models. Because the calculus is, I’m going to be paying all this money for the compute anyway.
“As a result, that will push people to be willing to pay higher margins for slightly better models. Because the calculus is, I’m going to be paying all this money for the compute anyway.”
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09 / prediction
If an H100 can produce something close to that, if we had actual humans on a server, the value of an H100 is such that it can repay itself in the course of a couple of months. So when I interviewed Dario, the point I was trying to make is not that I think the singularity is two years away and therefore Dario desperately needs to buy more compute, although the revenue is certainly there that he needs to buy more compute.
“If an H100 can produce something close to that, if we had actual humans on a server, the value of an H100 is such that it can repay itself in the course of a couple of months. So when I interviewed Dario, the point I was trying to make is not that I think the singularity is two years away and therefore Dario desperately needs to buy more compute, although the revenue is certainly there that he needs to buy more compute.”
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
10 / prediction
My favorite example of this kind of distribution and diffusion taking longer than you would think for a very fundamental technology—well, this is now my favorite example, so my second favorite example—is oil.
“My favorite example of this kind of distribution and diffusion taking longer than you would think for a very fundamental technology—well, this is now my favorite example, so my second favorite example—is oil.”
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11 / prediction
I think there’s an interesting parallel to today, not to be too on the nose, but sometimes people debate the odds that America becomes a Putinist kind of country within a couple of decades.
“I think there’s an interesting parallel to today, not to be too on the nose, but sometimes people debate the odds that America becomes a Putinist kind of country within a couple of decades.”
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12 / prediction
In ‘59, they discovered these massive oil fields in Siberia. And then from 1973 to 1985, I think, 80% of the Soviet Union’s hard currency earnings were just from oil.
“In ‘59, they discovered these massive oil fields in Siberia. And then from 1973 to 1985, I think, 80% of the Soviet Union’s hard currency earnings were just from oil.”
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13 / prediction
One theory I heard that is complementary to your theory is that Gorbachev is instituting reforms because he thinks there should be decentralization and democratization, but he doesn’t fundamentally believe in the market system.
“One theory I heard that is complementary to your theory is that Gorbachev is instituting reforms because he thinks there should be decentralization and democratization, but he doesn’t fundamentally believe in the market system.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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14 / prediction
I expect a similar thing from AI where it’s not like there’s going to be a single moment where we’ve made the crucial invention.
“I expect a similar thing from AI where it’s not like there’s going to be a single moment where we’ve made the crucial invention.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
15 / prediction
If somebody asks how long continual learning will take, I have no prior about whether this is a project that should take 5 years, 10 years, or 50 years.
“If somebody asks how long continual learning will take, I have no prior about whether this is a project that should take 5 years, 10 years, or 50 years.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
16 / prediction
As we move towards the era of experience, as you call it, this prior is going to be the basis on which we teach these models from experience, because this gives them the opportunity to get answers right some of the time.
“As we move towards the era of experience, as you call it, this prior is going to be the basis on which we teach these models from experience, because this gives them the opportunity to get answers right some of the time.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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17 / prediction
This year you spend $100 million training a model, next year $1 billion, the year after that, $10 billion. But it's one general purpose model, unlike, “We made money on this drug and now we're going to use that money to invest in 10 different drugs in 10 different bespoke ways.
“This year you spend $100 million training a model, next year $1 billion, the year after that, $10 billion. But it's one general purpose model, unlike, “We made money on this drug and now we're going to use that money to invest in 10 different drugs in 10 different bespoke ways.”
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18 / prediction
I think people will be aware that there's a general problem here, but the actual politics, the actual economics, the actual state of the technology landscape here… there might be interventions which are stupendously effective, which we overlook just because people are not aware of what's actually happening in this space.
“I think people will be aware that there's a general problem here, but the actual politics, the actual economics, the actual state of the technology landscape here… there might be interventions which are stupendously effective, which we overlook just because people are not aware of what's actually happening in this space.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
19 / prediction
Then it would actually be super powerful, because everybody has a different job, but then the same model could agglomerate all the skills that you're getting.
“Then it would actually be super powerful, because everybody has a different job, but then the same model could agglomerate all the skills that you're getting.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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20 / prediction
I think the actual fertility for foragers is sort of like reasonable—I don’t know if sustainable is the right word because I don’t mean in an ecological sense but more so—it keeps your population constant.
“I think the actual fertility for foragers is sort of like reasonable—I don’t know if sustainable is the right word because I don’t mean in an ecological sense but more so—it keeps your population constant.”
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21 / prediction
I feel like that job's still gonna be around. It's funny, because I studied computer science, and in retrospect- at the time, you could've become a software engineer or something.
“I feel like that job's still gonna be around. It's funny, because I studied computer science, and in retrospect- at the time, you could've become a software engineer or something.”
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22 / prediction
Before the car was invented, when Edison invented the light bulb, people were saying Standard Oil would go bankrupt because the light bulb was invented.
“Before the car was invented, when Edison invented the light bulb, people were saying Standard Oil would go bankrupt because the light bulb was invented.”
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23 / prediction
I don’t know if “instigated” is the right word, but the Pacific War was instigated because the Japanese needed more oil because of the war in Manchuria.
“I don’t know if “instigated” is the right word, but the Pacific War was instigated because the Japanese needed more oil because of the war in Manchuria.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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24 / prediction
We're going to go explore space and that's where we expect most of the things that will happen.
“We're going to go explore space and that's where we expect most of the things that will happen.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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25 / prediction
I expect the US government to protect me, not because of its “motives,” but just because of the system of incentives and institutions and norms that has been set up.
“I expect the US government to protect me, not because of its “motives,” but just because of the system of incentives and institutions and norms that has been set up.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
26 / prediction
Because there doesn't seem to be a model since GPT-4 that seems to be significantly better, there's a hypothesis that we might be hitting some sort of plateau.
“Because there doesn't seem to be a model since GPT-4 that seems to be significantly better, there's a hypothesis that we might be hitting some sort of plateau.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
27 / prediction
Maybe it thinks in alien concepts and you can’t really monitor the million-line pull request because you can’t really understand the whole thing and you can’t give labels.
“Maybe it thinks in alien concepts and you can’t really monitor the million-line pull request because you can’t really understand the whole thing and you can’t give labels.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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28 / prediction
One is that as these models get smarter, they are going to be able to operate in domains where we just can’t generate enough human labels, just because we’re not smart enough.
“One is that as these models get smarter, they are going to be able to operate in domains where we just can’t generate enough human labels, just because we’re not smart enough.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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29 / prediction
By the way, it's not the Dwarkesh podcast, it's Lunar Society Podcast LLC registered on Stripe Atlas. Any merchandise I sell in the future, Stripe will take care of that.
“By the way, it's not the Dwarkesh podcast, it's Lunar Society Podcast LLC registered on Stripe Atlas. Any merchandise I sell in the future, Stripe will take care of that.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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30 / prediction
As it is today, although there’s lots of saber rattling by Lavrov and Putin, it doesn’t really look as though, I mean, yes, there might be a catastrophic disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, but it’s very unlikely for Putin actually to use tactical nuclear missiles in Ukraine, not least, of course, because the Chinese don’t want him to.
“As it is today, although there’s lots of saber rattling by Lavrov and Putin, it doesn’t really look as though, I mean, yes, there might be a catastrophic disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, but it’s very unlikely for Putin actually to use tactical nuclear missiles in Ukraine, not least, of course, because the Chinese don’t want him to.”
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- Episode
- Andrew Roberts — Why Hitler lost WWII, Churchill as applied historian, & Napoleon as startup founder
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
31 / prediction
What will it take to align human level and superhuman AIs? It's interesting because the sorts of reinforcement learning and self-play kinds of setups that are popular now, like Constitution AI or RLHF, DeepMind obviously has expertise in it for decades longer.
“What will it take to align human level and superhuman AIs? It's interesting because the sorts of reinforcement learning and self-play kinds of setups that are popular now, like Constitution AI or RLHF, DeepMind obviously has expertise in it for decades longer.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
32 / prediction
I expect them to be better than humans at science than they are at power seeking, because we had greater selection pressures for power seeking in our ancestral environment than we did for science.
“I expect them to be better than humans at science than they are at power seeking, because we had greater selection pressures for power seeking in our ancestral environment than we did for science.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
- Episode
- Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
33 / prediction
I think my general take on this most important century stuff, and the reason it's so important is because it's easy to imagine a world that is really awesome and is free from scarcity and we see more of the progress we've seen over the last 200 years and we end up in a really great place.
“I think my general take on this most important century stuff, and the reason it's so important is because it's easy to imagine a world that is really awesome and is free from scarcity and we see more of the progress we've seen over the last 200 years and we end up in a really great place.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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34 / prediction
There's a famous law in software that says that a project will take longer than you expect even after you recount for the fact that it will take longer than you expect.
“There's a famous law in software that says that a project will take longer than you expect even after you recount for the fact that it will take longer than you expect.”
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- Dwarkesh Podcast
35 / prediction
There's been a lot of talk about a potential real estate bubble in China because they're building housing in places where people don't really need it.
“There's been a lot of talk about a potential real estate bubble in China because they're building housing in places where people don't really need it.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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36 / prediction
I want to ask you again about contingency because there are so many other examples where things you thought would be universal actually don't turn out to be.
“I want to ask you again about contingency because there are so many other examples where things you thought would be universal actually don't turn out to be.”
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- Dwarkesh Patel
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- Dwarkesh Podcast