Dwarkesh Patel: prediction

Transcript context

…This brings up a really important point. Is AI going to be like electricity or social media? Think about ConEd, or whatever the electricity provider here is. It’s a monopoly. It provides a resource that everybody uses. But do we think about electricity as creating a concentration of power? Does ConEd have this huge amount of political power, social power, or something like that? No, because with electricity, a lot of the downstream benefits actually came to the users of the electricity rather than the actual entity producing it. On the other hand, with social media, it was the opposite case. Social media was everywhere. Everybody uses social media, but the rents went to the platform. That’s a really interesting point. I don’t endorse this take yet, I’m going to talk out loud. The more you think our economy is going to be run on AGI the way our economy currently runs on electricity—that is, there’s a broad fundamental transformation of the entire economy—the more it looks like electricity… Every company in the S&P of the future, if it’s going to make it to the S&P 500, it is because it has leveraged AI. Exactly. And then you’re indexed again.…

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