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Dwarkesh Podcast / episode intelligence

Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history

4 Jun 2024 48 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Leopold AschenbrennerDwarkesh Patel

Claim mix

belief 18uncertainty 10evaluation 7prediction 6observation 3preference 2commitment 1recommendation 1

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Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

48 published records

01 / prediction

Superintelligence applied to broad fields of R&D — and the industrial explosion that comes from it, robots making a lot of material — could compress a century’s worth of technological progress into less than a decade. That means that a couple years could mean a Gulf War 1-style advantage in military affairs.

“Superintelligence applied to broad fields of R&D — and the industrial explosion that comes from it, robots making a lot of material — could compress a century’s worth of technological progress into less than a decade. That means that a couple years could mean a Gulf War 1-style advantage in military affairs.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / evaluation

I'm so bearish on the wrapper companies because they're betting on stagnation. They're betting that you have these intermediate models and it takes so much schlep to integrate them.

“I'm so bearish on the wrapper companies because they're betting on stagnation. They're betting that you have these intermediate models and it takes so much schlep to integrate them.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / belief

I agree that nuclear energy is a thing that happened later on and is dual-use. But it’s something that happened literally a decade after nuclear weapons were developed.

“I agree that nuclear energy is a thing that happened later on and is dual-use. But it’s something that happened literally a decade after nuclear weapons were developed.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / uncertainty

Maybe you have a point. We don’t know. You have arguments for why that’s a more likely world, but maybe that’s not the world we live in.

“Maybe you have a point. We don’t know. You have arguments for why that’s a more likely world, but maybe that’s not the world we live in.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

11 / belief

Unless you’re right about what the intelligence explosion looks like, don’t move yet. But in that world where it really does seem like Alec Radford can be automated, and that's the only bottleneck to getting to ASI… Okay I think we can leave it at that.

“Unless you’re right about what the intelligence explosion looks like, don’t move yet. But in that world where it really does seem like Alec Radford can be automated, and that's the only bottleneck to getting to ASI… Okay I think we can leave it at that.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

12 / uncertainty

I don't know how rocket science works, but I didn't get the impression that there's some clear scaling behavior with the amount of jet fuel.

“I don't know how rocket science works, but I didn't get the impression that there's some clear scaling behavior with the amount of jet fuel.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

13 / observation

On that point in particular, many people who have longer timelines have come on the podcast and made the point that the way to train this long horizon RL, it's not… Earlier we were talking about how they can think for five minutes, but not for longer.

“On that point in particular, many people who have longer timelines have come on the podcast and made the point that the way to train this long horizon RL, it's not… Earlier we were talking about how they can think for five minutes, but not for longer.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / evaluation

Now we're in a place where they are excited about AGI and they're like, "fuck, we want to have GPT-5 while you're going to be off building superintelligence. This Atoms for Peace thing doesn't work for us.

“Now we're in a place where they are excited about AGI and they're like, "fuck, we want to have GPT-5 while you're going to be off building superintelligence. This Atoms for Peace thing doesn't work for us.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

19 / belief

I agree, but if the coefficient, of how fast they diminish as you grow the input, is high enough, then in the abstract the fact that inputs matter isn’t that relevant.

“I agree, but if the coefficient, of how fast they diminish as you grow the input, is high enough, then in the abstract the fact that inputs matter isn’t that relevant.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

22 / evaluation

What we’re debating is the form of government involvement, but it will look more like the national security state than a startup, which is what it is right now.

“What we’re debating is the form of government involvement, but it will look more like the national security state than a startup, which is what it is right now.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

25 / observation

I was told by people advancing this idea — because they know I’m a libertarian-type person and the way they approached me was like this — that the way to think about it was that it's fundamentally a way to protect market-based development of AGI.

“I was told by people advancing this idea — because they know I’m a libertarian-type person and the way they approached me was like this — that the way to think about it was that it's fundamentally a way to protect market-based development of AGI.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

29 / belief

Yeah, it was good because he kind of introduced me to the Twitter weirdos. I think the takeaway from that was that I have to move out west one more time.

“Yeah, it was good because he kind of introduced me to the Twitter weirdos. I think the takeaway from that was that I have to move out west one more time.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

33 / belief

I'm not sure I agree with this. There are many examples in history where small groups of people, Bell Labs or Skunk Works, have made significant progress.

“I'm not sure I agree with this. There are many examples in history where small groups of people, Bell Labs or Skunk Works, have made significant progress.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

39 / evaluation

Once you’re trying to get into the hundreds of billions, you have to get to like $100 billion a year in revenue. This is where it gets really interesting for the big tech companies because their revenues are on the order of hundreds of billions.

“Once you’re trying to get into the hundreds of billions, you have to get to like $100 billion a year in revenue. This is where it gets really interesting for the big tech companies because their revenues are on the order of hundreds of billions.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

40 / prediction

The situation we want to be in — and could be in if we play our cards right — is a little bit more like the US building the atomic bomb versus the German project years behind.

“The situation we want to be in — and could be in if we play our cards right — is a little bit more like the US building the atomic bomb versus the German project years behind.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

42 / uncertainty

I don't know if I believe in this concept of a sharp left turn, but there are important qualitative changes that happen between now and somewhat superhuman systems early on in the intelligence explosion.

“I don't know if I believe in this concept of a sharp left turn, but there are important qualitative changes that happen between now and somewhat superhuman systems early on in the intelligence explosion.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

43 / evaluation

The only reason they're getting this seat at the AGI table and giving these dictators this leverage over this extremely important national security technology, is because we're getting them excited and offering it to them.

“The only reason they're getting this seat at the AGI table and giving these dictators this leverage over this extremely important national security technology, is because we're getting them excited and offering it to them.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

45 / evaluation

Either you barely scrape ahead, but you’re in a fever struggle, proliferating crazy WMDs. It’s enormously dangerous for alignment because you’re in a crazy race at the end, and you don’t have the ability to take six months to get alignment right.

“Either you barely scrape ahead, but you’re in a fever struggle, proliferating crazy WMDs. It’s enormously dangerous for alignment because you’re in a crazy race at the end, and you don’t have the ability to take six months to get alignment right.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

46 / commitment

On the letter, by Monday morning when it was circulating, I thought it was probably appropriate for the board to resign because they had lost too much credibility and trust with the employees.

“On the letter, by Monday morning when it was circulating, I thought it was probably appropriate for the board to resign because they had lost too much credibility and trust with the employees.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

47 / preference

Leopold Aschenbrenner 04:18:10 I used to believe in the EMH guy as an economist. But now, I think there are groups of smart people, like those in San Francisco, who have alpha over the rest of society in seeing the future.

“Leopold Aschenbrenner 04:18:10 I used to believe in the EMH guy as an economist. But now, I think there are groups of smart people, like those in San Francisco, who have alpha over the rest of society in seeing the future.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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