Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedDwarkesh Patel: belief
4 Jun 2024 Dwarkesh Podcast Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history
“I'm not sure I agree with this. There are many examples in history where small groups of people, Bell Labs or Skunk Works, have made significant progress.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 4 Jun 2024
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…This is getting into good stuff. This is the classic disagreement I have with Patrick and others. Obviously, inputs matter. The United States produces a lot more scientific and technological progress than Liechtenstein or Switzerland. Say you made Patrick Collison dictator of Liechtenstein or Switzerland and he implemented his utopia of ideal institutions. Keep the talent pool fixed. He’s not able to do some crazy high-skilled immigration thing or genetic breeding scheme. You keep the talent pool fixed with amazing institutions. Even then, even if Patrick Collison were the dictator, Switzerland still wouldn’t be able to outcompete the United States in scientific and technological progress. Magnitudes matter. I'm not sure I agree with this. There are many examples in history where small groups of people, Bell Labs or Skunk Works, have made significant progress. OpenAI has a couple hundred researchers. Highly selected though.…
Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.