Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedLeopold Aschenbrenner: evaluation
4 Jun 2024 Dwarkesh Podcast Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history
“Once you’re trying to get into the hundreds of billions, you have to get to like $100 billion a year in revenue. This is where it gets really interesting for the big tech companies because their revenues are on the order of hundreds of billions.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 4 Jun 2024
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Can’t you? Once you’re trying to get into the hundreds of billions, you have to get to like $100 billion a year in revenue. This is where it gets really interesting for the big tech companies because their revenues are on the order of hundreds of billions. $10 billion is fine. It’ll pay off the 2024 size training cluster. It’ll really be gangbusters with Big Tech when it costs $100 billion a year. The question is how feasible is $100 billion a year from AI revenue? It’s a lot more than right now. If you believe in the trajectory of AI systems as I do, it’s not that crazy. There are like 300 million Microsoft Office subscribers. They have Copilot now. I don’t know what they’re selling it for. Suppose you sold some AI add-on for $100/month to a third of Microsoft Office subscribers. That’d be $100 billion right there. $100/month is a lot. That’s a lot for a third of Office subscribers.…
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