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Leopold Aschenbrenner

Published podcast speaker

Claims
32
Episodes
1
Shows
1
Named items
1

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other / recommends

SCOTUS oral arguments

“By the way, I recommend SCOTUS oral arguments as the best podcast when I run out of high quality content on the Internet.”

Dwarkesh Podcast · 4 Jun 2024

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

Claim ledger

What Leopold said.

32 transcript-backed records

01 / prediction

Superintelligence applied to broad fields of R&D — and the industrial explosion that comes from it, robots making a lot of material — could compress a century’s worth of technological progress into less than a decade. That means that a couple years could mean a Gulf War 1-style advantage in military affairs.

“Superintelligence applied to broad fields of R&D — and the industrial explosion that comes from it, robots making a lot of material — could compress a century’s worth of technological progress into less than a decade. That means that a couple years could mean a Gulf War 1-style advantage in military affairs.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / evaluation

I'm so bearish on the wrapper companies because they're betting on stagnation. They're betting that you have these intermediate models and it takes so much schlep to integrate them.

“I'm so bearish on the wrapper companies because they're betting on stagnation. They're betting that you have these intermediate models and it takes so much schlep to integrate them.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / uncertainty

I don't know how rocket science works, but I didn't get the impression that there's some clear scaling behavior with the amount of jet fuel.

“I don't know how rocket science works, but I didn't get the impression that there's some clear scaling behavior with the amount of jet fuel.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

13 / evaluation

What we’re debating is the form of government involvement, but it will look more like the national security state than a startup, which is what it is right now.

“What we’re debating is the form of government involvement, but it will look more like the national security state than a startup, which is what it is right now.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

19 / belief

Yeah, it was good because he kind of introduced me to the Twitter weirdos. I think the takeaway from that was that I have to move out west one more time.

“Yeah, it was good because he kind of introduced me to the Twitter weirdos. I think the takeaway from that was that I have to move out west one more time.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

24 / evaluation

Once you’re trying to get into the hundreds of billions, you have to get to like $100 billion a year in revenue. This is where it gets really interesting for the big tech companies because their revenues are on the order of hundreds of billions.

“Once you’re trying to get into the hundreds of billions, you have to get to like $100 billion a year in revenue. This is where it gets really interesting for the big tech companies because their revenues are on the order of hundreds of billions.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

25 / prediction

The situation we want to be in — and could be in if we play our cards right — is a little bit more like the US building the atomic bomb versus the German project years behind.

“The situation we want to be in — and could be in if we play our cards right — is a little bit more like the US building the atomic bomb versus the German project years behind.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

27 / uncertainty

I don't know if I believe in this concept of a sharp left turn, but there are important qualitative changes that happen between now and somewhat superhuman systems early on in the intelligence explosion.

“I don't know if I believe in this concept of a sharp left turn, but there are important qualitative changes that happen between now and somewhat superhuman systems early on in the intelligence explosion.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / evaluation

The only reason they're getting this seat at the AGI table and giving these dictators this leverage over this extremely important national security technology, is because we're getting them excited and offering it to them.

“The only reason they're getting this seat at the AGI table and giving these dictators this leverage over this extremely important national security technology, is because we're getting them excited and offering it to them.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

29 / evaluation

Either you barely scrape ahead, but you’re in a fever struggle, proliferating crazy WMDs. It’s enormously dangerous for alignment because you’re in a crazy race at the end, and you don’t have the ability to take six months to get alignment right.

“Either you barely scrape ahead, but you’re in a fever struggle, proliferating crazy WMDs. It’s enormously dangerous for alignment because you’re in a crazy race at the end, and you don’t have the ability to take six months to get alignment right.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

30 / commitment

On the letter, by Monday morning when it was circulating, I thought it was probably appropriate for the board to resign because they had lost too much credibility and trust with the employees.

“On the letter, by Monday morning when it was circulating, I thought it was probably appropriate for the board to resign because they had lost too much credibility and trust with the employees.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

31 / preference

Leopold Aschenbrenner 04:18:10 I used to believe in the EMH guy as an economist. But now, I think there are groups of smart people, like those in San Francisco, who have alpha over the rest of society in seeing the future.

“Leopold Aschenbrenner 04:18:10 I used to believe in the EMH guy as an economist. But now, I think there are groups of smart people, like those in San Francisco, who have alpha over the rest of society in seeing the future.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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