Leopold Aschenbrenner: prediction

Transcript context

…What were you doing in 2023? OpenAI. When you were at OpenAI in 2023, it was a weird thing. You almost didn't want to talk about AI or AGI. It was kind of a dirty word. Then in 2023, people saw ChatGPT for the first time, they saw GPT-4, and it just exploded. It triggered huge capital expenditures from all these firms and an explosion in revenue from Nvidia and so on. Things have been quiet since then, but the next thing has been in the oven. I expect every generation these g-forces to intensify. People will see the models. They won’t have counted the OOMs so they're going to be surprised. It'll be kind of crazy. Revenue is going to accelerate. Suppose you do hit $10 billion by the end of this year. Suppose it just continues on the trajectory of revenue doubling every six months. It's not actually that far from $100 billion, maybe by 2026. At some point, what happened to Nvidia is going to happen to Big Tech. It's going to explode. A lot more people are going to feel it. 2023 was the moment for me where AGI went from being this theoretical, abstract thing. I see it, I feel it, and I see the path. I see where it's going. I can see the cluster it's trained on, the rough combination of algorithms, the people, how it's happening. Most of the world is not there yet. Most of the people who feel it are right here. A lot more of the world is going to start feeling it. That's going to start being intense. Right now, who feels it? You can go on Twitter and there are these GPT wrapper companies, like, "whoa, GPT-4 is going to change our business."…

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