Leopold Aschenbrenner: prediction

Transcript context

…Maybe you have a point. We don’t know. You have arguments for why that’s a more likely world, but maybe that’s not the world we live in. In the other world, I’m very much on the side of ensuring these things are privately held. When you nationalize, that’s a one-way function. You can’t go back. Why not wait until we have more evidence on which world we live in? Rushing nationalization might be a bad idea while we’re uncertain. I’ll let you respond to that first. I don’t expect us to nationalize tomorrow. If anything I expect it to be like COVID,where it’s kind of too late. Ideally, you nationalize early enough to lock stuff down. It’ll probably be chaotic. You’ll be trying to do a crash program to lock stuff down. It’ll be kind of late. It’ll be clear what’s happening. We’re not going to nationalize when it’s not clear what’s happening. The argument that these institutions have held up historically so well is flawed. They’ve actually almost broken a bunch of times.…

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