Leopold Aschenbrenner: uncertainty

Transcript context

…You're like, "oh, this is like a good start. Mormons will replace everybody." I don't know if it's good, but at least some people will maintain high fertility rates. But no, even the Mormons... Once these religious subgroups that have high fertility rates grow big enough, they become too close in contact with normal society and become normalized. Their fertility rates drop from maybe like four to two in the course of 10-20 years. People point to the Amish or whatever, but it's probably just not scalable. If you grow big enough, then there's just this overwhelming force of modernity that gets you. No, if I could convert to Mormonism... Look, I think there's something... I don't believe it, right? If I believed it, I obviously would convert to Mormonism, because you got to convert. But you can choose a world in which you do believe it.…

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