Leopold Aschenbrenner: evaluation

Transcript context

…Who specifically is doing this? Who are the companies who are going there to fundraise? It’s been reported that Sam Altman is trying to raise $7 trillion or whatever for a chip project. It's unclear how many of the clusters will be there, but definitely stuff is happening. There’s another reason I'm a little suspicious of this argument that if the US doesn't work with them, they'll go to China. I've heard from multiple people — not from my time at OpenAI, and I haven't seen the memo — that at some point several years ago, OpenAI leadership had laid out a plan to fund and sell AGI by starting a bidding war between the governments of the United States, China, and Russia. It's surprising to me that they're willing to sell AGI to the Chinese and Russian governments. There's also something that feels eerily familiar about starting this bidding war and then playing them off each other, saying, "well, if you don't do this, China will do it." Interesting. That's pretty fucked up. Suppose you're right. We ended up in this place because, as one of our friends put it, the Middle East has billions or trillions of dollars up for persuasion like no other place in the world.…

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