Leopold Aschenbrenner: uncertainty

Transcript context

…I agree that over time you would get there. I'm not denying that ASI is possible. I’m just questioning how this happens in a year. The story is a bit more continuous. By 2025 or 2026, you’ll already have models as good as a college graduate. I don’t know where all the unhobbling is going to be but even it’s possible that you have a proto-automated engineer. There’s a bit of an AGI smear that there are unhobblings missing. There’s ways of connecting them that are missing. There’s some level of intelligence you’re missing. At some point you are going to get this thing that is 100% automated Alec Radford and once you have that, things really take off. Let’s go back to the unhobbling. We’re going to get a bunch of models by the end of the year. Suppose we didn’t get some capacity by the end of the year. Is there some such capacity which us lacking would suggest that AI progress will take longer than you are projecting?…

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