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Sarah Paine

Published podcast speaker

Claims
132
Episodes
7
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Sarah said.

132 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

If it had tanked Cold War termination or upset the reunification of Germany, France and Britain might have been very happy, because François Mitterrand, who is the president of France, and Margaret Thatcher, prime minister of Britain, were against German unification.

“If it had tanked Cold War termination or upset the reunification of Germany, France and Britain might have been very happy, because François Mitterrand, who is the president of France, and Margaret Thatcher, prime minister of Britain, were against German unification.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / evaluation

If you’re working for a subunit of an enterprise, you have to lie about the inventories you have, saying you have less than you do, and then you have to lie about what you need, saying you need more than you do because you’re worried about getting enough things.

“If you’re working for a subunit of an enterprise, you have to lie about the inventories you have, saying you have less than you do, and then you have to lie about what you need, saying you need more than you do because you’re worried about getting enough things.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

03 / evaluation

Turns out the domino theory did not apply to capitalism. It applied to communism because once the democratic contagion hit one Warsaw Pact country in Eastern Europe, it spread to the others until it was a seething mess and they fell like dominoes.

“Turns out the domino theory did not apply to capitalism. It applied to communism because once the democratic contagion hit one Warsaw Pact country in Eastern Europe, it spread to the others until it was a seething mess and they fell like dominoes.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / commitment

If we’re going to dump all our allies for unknown reasons and just alienate them so they organize without us… If we’re going to just throw away entire institutions without thinking very carefully about what we’re doing… We become a cooperative adversary and we will be the bozo putting a plastic bag on our own head.

“If we’re going to dump all our allies for unknown reasons and just alienate them so they organize without us… If we’re going to just throw away entire institutions without thinking very carefully about what we’re doing… We become a cooperative adversary and we will be the bozo putting a plastic bag on our own head.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

07 / belief

” Then here’s a journalist, Teimuraz Stepanov, who said, “Look, I think from the beginning the genes of disintegration were contained in the genetics of this governmental political formation.

“” Then here’s a journalist, Teimuraz Stepanov, who said, “Look, I think from the beginning the genes of disintegration were contained in the genetics of this governmental political formation.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / prediction

What he’s done will take a generation at minimum to get to anywhere where people are going to be thinking about… People will be talking about reparations from Russia for quite a while and they’re poor, they’re not going to want to do that.

“What he’s done will take a generation at minimum to get to anywhere where people are going to be thinking about… People will be talking about reparations from Russia for quite a while and they’re poor, they’re not going to want to do that.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

14 / prediction

The way deterrence theory worked during the Cold War, and I believe now as well, is that in order to deter the other side, you have to have a reliable second-strike capability.

“The way deterrence theory worked during the Cold War, and I believe now as well, is that in order to deter the other side, you have to have a reliable second-strike capability.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

15 / evaluation

They make those big investments and it takes a while for them to pay off. That was a big deal because they needed help from Western oil companies or whoever does the gas pipelines, compressors, whatever it is you need.

“They make those big investments and it takes a while for them to pay off. That was a big deal because they needed help from Western oil companies or whoever does the gas pipelines, compressors, whatever it is you need.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

18 / evaluation

Leonid Brezhnev was in power for 18 long years and not only did he collect cars, that was apparently the go-to gift for him, but in addition he was collecting a bunch of non-performing piles across the Third World because this is manifesting Russian power.

“Leonid Brezhnev was in power for 18 long years and not only did he collect cars, that was apparently the go-to gift for him, but in addition he was collecting a bunch of non-performing piles across the Third World because this is manifesting Russian power.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

19 / evaluation

For Russia it’s really devastating having China as an enemy because it’s going to have to deploy mechanized nuclear-armed troops all along its really long Chinese border, Central Asia, the works.

“For Russia it’s really devastating having China as an enemy because it’s going to have to deploy mechanized nuclear-armed troops all along its really long Chinese border, Central Asia, the works.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

20 / uncertainty

Mao goes there and kowtows in Moscow and does what Stalin wants him to do. That’s Stalin’s experience until he, I don’t know, chokes on his Cheerios or whatever happened to him that morning.

“Mao goes there and kowtows in Moscow and does what Stalin wants him to do. That’s Stalin’s experience until he, I don’t know, chokes on his Cheerios or whatever happened to him that morning.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

24 / prediction

Also because China is so isolated by this war, it has no international friends but Russia, it’s going to tie China to Russia ever more firmly and give Russia breathing space to rebuild after World War II while its Western enemies are wasting time in Korea.

“Also because China is so isolated by this war, it has no international friends but Russia, it’s going to tie China to Russia ever more firmly and give Russia breathing space to rebuild after World War II while its Western enemies are wasting time in Korea.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

27 / recommendation

If you want to disintegrate the neighbors in order to delay their rise, well then you fund all sides of their civil wars and any side in between because you just want them to go at it.

“If you want to disintegrate the neighbors in order to delay their rise, well then you fund all sides of their civil wars and any side in between because you just want them to go at it.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

33 / evaluation

Once you command the Atlantic—which means that a sustainable amount of traffic is going to get through from the Allied powers—then you can start thinking about peripheral theaters.

“Once you command the Atlantic—which means that a sustainable amount of traffic is going to get through from the Allied powers—then you can start thinking about peripheral theaters.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

35 / evaluation

The terminology comes from Carl von Clausewitz, who is the Western guru on conventional land warfare. It means if you're attacking in a battle, if you go too far you'll weaken yourself because the enemy will counterattack and send you further backwards than you would have otherwise been.

“The terminology comes from Carl von Clausewitz, who is the Western guru on conventional land warfare. It means if you're attacking in a battle, if you go too far you'll weaken yourself because the enemy will counterattack and send you further backwards than you would have otherwise been.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

40 / evaluation

It was just losing one thing after another. But once you get the big continental buddy—don't dismiss the importance of a big continental buddy—that is in the area where the fighting is taking place, not separated by the seas, but there with a big army, that was essential.

“It was just losing one thing after another. But once you get the big continental buddy—don't dismiss the importance of a big continental buddy—that is in the area where the fighting is taking place, not separated by the seas, but there with a big army, that was essential.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

41 / prediction

Once the Germans maximize their territorial conquest, they've reduced the Russian population—because they've conquered all these areas—to less than that of the United States.

“Once the Germans maximize their territorial conquest, they've reduced the Russian population—because they've conquered all these areas—to less than that of the United States.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

42 / evaluation

We're also coordinating with the Russians so that you're setting up not only war termination but also what postwar institutions are going to be like to hold the peace. It's a completely different event from World War I when Russia falls out of the Entente because there are bread riots in St.

“We're also coordinating with the Russians so that you're setting up not only war termination but also what postwar institutions are going to be like to hold the peace. It's a completely different event from World War I when Russia falls out of the Entente because there are bread riots in St.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

48 / evaluation

When people have high seas access, it's really difficult to shut them down because China would have to go all the way around to be on the far side to shut everything down on the other side.

“When people have high seas access, it's really difficult to shut them down because China would have to go all the way around to be on the far side to shut everything down on the other side.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

49 / prediction

If you knock off 2% growth per annum, I think the doubling time of an economy… I don't know, if you knock a couple of percentage points off, it goes from 25 years to 75 years.

“If you knock off 2% growth per annum, I think the doubling time of an economy… I don't know, if you knock a couple of percentage points off, it goes from 25 years to 75 years.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

50 / evaluation

They got southern Manchuria. It's actually arguably the valuable half, the southern half, because it has Port Arthur and Dalny and all the railways that Russians had invested there.

“They got southern Manchuria. It's actually arguably the valuable half, the southern half, because it has Port Arthur and Dalny and all the railways that Russians had invested there.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

51 / evaluation

Also notice it wants the warm water port, that's the orange part going down to Port Arthur, because Vladivostok, prior to the age of icebreakers, is frozen solid several months of the year.

“Also notice it wants the warm water port, that's the orange part going down to Port Arthur, because Vladivostok, prior to the age of icebreakers, is frozen solid several months of the year.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

52 / evaluation

If you look at the invasion routes that Japan uses and in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, they're remarkably similar because guess what, the geography hasn't changed.

“If you look at the invasion routes that Japan uses and in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, they're remarkably similar because guess what, the geography hasn't changed.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

53 / evaluation

They're getting rid of all those and then they go right to the bottom of the social pyramid, which is children. They decide that they need to have compulsory elementary education because they don't believe you can have a modern country, a strong country, without a literate population.

“They're getting rid of all those and then they go right to the bottom of the social pyramid, which is children. They decide that they need to have compulsory elementary education because they don't believe you can have a modern country, a strong country, without a literate population.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

55 / commitment

Before he sets out to take command, he tells the navy minister, “I will care for fighting in Manchuria, but I'm counting you as the man to tell me when to quit.

“Before he sets out to take command, he tells the navy minister, “I will care for fighting in Manchuria, but I'm counting you as the man to tell me when to quit.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

56 / uncertainty

If the Russians had run one more battle against the Japanese, the Japanese supply lines would have collapsed. It's unclear how far down the Liaodong Peninsula they would have had to retreat.

“If the Russians had run one more battle against the Japanese, the Japanese supply lines would have collapsed. It's unclear how far down the Liaodong Peninsula they would have had to retreat.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

57 / belief

I dare say if he had been Peter the Great, the guy who tortured his only son to death and suffered numerous setbacks, I doubt that he would have had any problems dealing with rioting Russians.

“I dare say if he had been Peter the Great, the guy who tortured his only son to death and suffered numerous setbacks, I doubt that he would have had any problems dealing with rioting Russians.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

58 / belief

I believe when WikiLeaks leaked a lot of their memos and things and the New York Times was reporting on it, what it revealed was incredibly accurate reporting of whatever place they were assigned to, and describing things in really accurate detail that would enable US policymakers then to make an accurate assessment and determine to do what's next.

“I believe when WikiLeaks leaked a lot of their memos and things and the New York Times was reporting on it, what it revealed was incredibly accurate reporting of whatever place they were assigned to, and describing things in really accurate detail that would enable US policymakers then to make an accurate assessment and determine to do what's next.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

59 / belief

I think that's the big answer, but you're quite right that as things went on, as it sinks in that Japan is the dominant player in Asia… Because first you have a war and that's happened, but you're focusing on all your civil wars and other stuff.

“I think that's the big answer, but you're quite right that as things went on, as it sinks in that Japan is the dominant player in Asia… Because first you have a war and that's happened, but you're focusing on all your civil wars and other stuff.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

61 / recommendation

It's incredible the number of people who don't want to change their minds. That's why I made a big to-do about giving the argument-counterargument-rebuttal framework, because it helps get you out of the rut so that you can change your mind.

“It's incredible the number of people who don't want to change their minds. That's why I made a big to-do about giving the argument-counterargument-rebuttal framework, because it helps get you out of the rut so that you can change your mind.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

63 / prediction

They're looking at China going, that's our future if we don't fix things. They're thinking the solution for Japan is empire, because in those days that seemed to be the way powerful countries ran things.

“They're looking at China going, that's our future if we don't fix things. They're thinking the solution for Japan is empire, because in those days that seemed to be the way powerful countries ran things.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

66 / preference

There's all kinds of expertise and it's important. But if I take a really good hairdresser and make them an auto mechanic, or the auto mechanic a hairdresser, it is not going to work out well.

“There's all kinds of expertise and it's important. But if I take a really good hairdresser and make them an auto mechanic, or the auto mechanic a hairdresser, it is not going to work out well.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

67 / recommendation

Also, if you're going to do something like on a job and you have to recommend a course of action, your thesis, you had better anticipate what the counterargument's going to be.

“Also, if you're going to do something like on a job and you have to recommend a course of action, your thesis, you had better anticipate what the counterargument's going to be.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

68 / evaluation

They're quite proud of their achievements and it vastly increases the prestige of the military, particularly the army. This is going to have bad follow-on effects for civil military relations because it's going to increase military power over civil power but it takes a while to play out.

“They're quite proud of their achievements and it vastly increases the prestige of the military, particularly the army. This is going to have bad follow-on effects for civil military relations because it's going to increase military power over civil power but it takes a while to play out.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

69 / prediction

Because once Russia completes this thing, it's going to overturn the Asian balance of power because Russia is going to be able to deploy troops where nobody else can.

“Because once Russia completes this thing, it's going to overturn the Asian balance of power because Russia is going to be able to deploy troops where nobody else can.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

71 / evaluation

Why? Because phase three is conventional warfare, which requires infinite supplies of conventional armaments that requires an industrial base to produce it, and somewhere like China lacks this industrial base.

“Why? Because phase three is conventional warfare, which requires infinite supplies of conventional armaments that requires an industrial base to produce it, and somewhere like China lacks this industrial base.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

74 / uncertainty

" Other people, it's like, oh, I don't know, I can't remember the words, like, I don't know, "contested ground," something else. But I'm guessing that when he chose those words, "death ground," it's because when he was thinking about it, it might well have conjured up his memories of what exactly it was like to be on Guadalcanal or New Georgia.

“" Other people, it's like, oh, I don't know, I can't remember the words, like, I don't know, "contested ground," something else. But I'm guessing that when he chose those words, "death ground," it's because when he was thinking about it, it might well have conjured up his memories of what exactly it was like to be on Guadalcanal or New Georgia.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

77 / evaluation

One of the reasons Taiwan is Taiwan is after they lost the civil war and they are on the island of Taiwan, they did a big after-action analysis of what went wrong and they decided it was corruption and that it was land reform that they needed to fix those things. But they couldn't do land reform on the mainland because that's their officer corps.

“One of the reasons Taiwan is Taiwan is after they lost the civil war and they are on the island of Taiwan, they did a big after-action analysis of what went wrong and they decided it was corruption and that it was land reform that they needed to fix those things. But they couldn't do land reform on the mainland because that's their officer corps.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

78 / evaluation

If you compare—and I'm going to be doing a lot of comparisons with the Vietnam War and the Korean War because they're communists and all these things—you can see Mao's rural mobilization was very successful in China.

“If you compare—and I'm going to be doing a lot of comparisons with the Vietnam War and the Korean War because they're communists and all these things—you can see Mao's rural mobilization was very successful in China.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

79 / evaluation

Then, on the Long Retreat, Mao chose as his terminal point of retreat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.

“Then, on the Long Retreat, Mao chose as his terminal point of retreat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

81 / evaluation

treat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.

“treat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

82 / evaluation

" 00:20:16 And then, when the Japanese invaded Manchuria in 1931, the new slogan is, "Down with imperialism and the Nationalist Party too," because you want to smear your enemy in the civil war while you're at it there.

“" 00:20:16 And then, when the Japanese invaded Manchuria in 1931, the new slogan is, "Down with imperialism and the Nationalist Party too," because you want to smear your enemy in the civil war while you're at it there.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

83 / evaluation

Mao and his guerillas, well, actually, here's what Mao really says: "Regular forces are of primary importance because it is they who alone are capable of producing the decision," like winning the war.

“Mao and his guerillas, well, actually, here's what Mao really says: "Regular forces are of primary importance because it is they who alone are capable of producing the decision," like winning the war.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

84 / evaluation

You've already done a three-year tour in World War II because, in those days, you started serving whenever it was in the war, and you weren't coming home until the war was over.

“You've already done a three-year tour in World War II because, in those days, you started serving whenever it was in the war, and you weren't coming home until the war was over.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

88 / uncertainty

I don't know the answer, because I'm not a social historian where you would really be doing- I've always done more diplomatic and military, so you're looking top-down.

“I don't know the answer, because I'm not a social historian where you would really be doing- I've always done more diplomatic and military, so you're looking top-down.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

90 / belief

You want them just to quit and somehow you're gonna break their will to resist. And I suspect this is what the Japanese thought they were doing in the Rape of Nanjing and other atrocities.

“You want them just to quit and somehow you're gonna break their will to resist. And I suspect this is what the Japanese thought they were doing in the Rape of Nanjing and other atrocities.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

93 / belief

Someone ran into it, translated it into English, and so I just read the whole thing. And then the other stuff, the quotations, I think I was ripping off secondary sources where someone else had done the archival research.

“Someone ran into it, translated it into English, and so I just read the whole thing. And then the other stuff, the quotations, I think I was ripping off secondary sources where someone else had done the archival research.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

96 / evaluation

The Japanese are looking at the operational level and going, why do you care about these countries? We care about the entire system because our prosperity is based on it.

“The Japanese are looking at the operational level and going, why do you care about these countries? We care about the entire system because our prosperity is based on it.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

98 / evaluation

Because for an expeditionary force, you absolutely need the Navy to deliver you there, to maintain your supplies there and they're thinking, the army's thinking, you navy are being irresponsible, not doing any of these things.

“Because for an expeditionary force, you absolutely need the Navy to deliver you there, to maintain your supplies there and they're thinking, the army's thinking, you navy are being irresponsible, not doing any of these things.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

99 / evaluation

0:26:15 First is risk intolerance because remember at the beginning I started with the two flag officers saying “well, we're going to do this war in the Pacific when it's unlikely we're going to succeed but we're going to do it anyway”.

“0:26:15 First is risk intolerance because remember at the beginning I started with the two flag officers saying “well, we're going to do this war in the Pacific when it's unlikely we're going to succeed but we're going to do it anyway”.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

100 / evaluation

The Americans, why did they drop atomic bombs on the Japanese? And there was no disagreement about that in the United States at the time because it was a question of: are you going to send American young men your age- and millions of them would have died hitting the home islands- or are you going to do the bombing?

“The Americans, why did they drop atomic bombs on the Japanese? And there was no disagreement about that in the United States at the time because it was a question of: are you going to send American young men your age- and millions of them would have died hitting the home islands- or are you going to do the bombing?”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

101 / evaluation

During World War II, the United States had sanctuary, which means other people couldn't touch us at home, and our productive base was not touched and that was essential.

“During World War II, the United States had sanctuary, which means other people couldn't touch us at home, and our productive base was not touched and that was essential.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

103 / evaluation

They're going to fight brutally against overwhelming odds. So in the West, when we like to mirror image, we want to think of the rational actor with some kind of mathematically based cost benefit of when you should give up, when the costs are so high above whatever your value of the object is you ought to call it quits.

“They're going to fight brutally against overwhelming odds. So in the West, when we like to mirror image, we want to think of the rational actor with some kind of mathematically based cost benefit of when you should give up, when the costs are so high above whatever your value of the object is you ought to call it quits.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

104 / prediction

0:39:14 But so here's Admiral Ugaki Matome who is talking- he eventually comes around to recommending a more defensive strategy of not having this fleet on fleet because they don't have - they've lost a lot of the fleet and then they don't have the fuel to run it.

“0:39:14 But so here's Admiral Ugaki Matome who is talking- he eventually comes around to recommending a more defensive strategy of not having this fleet on fleet because they don't have - they've lost a lot of the fleet and then they don't have the fuel to run it.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

105 / prediction

I think at some stage, we decide to pull them out of Japan and blockade them eternally. And then you've got, I don't know, Japan is like a new North Korea, just this inevitable, these eternal, non-functioning society.

“I think at some stage, we decide to pull them out of Japan and blockade them eternally. And then you've got, I don't know, Japan is like a new North Korea, just this inevitable, these eternal, non-functioning society.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

106 / evaluation

In the west, the moment you as a soldier start losing a battle, you can retreat and surrender and it's not dishonorable because you're going to live to fight another day.

“In the west, the moment you as a soldier start losing a battle, you can retreat and surrender and it's not dishonorable because you're going to live to fight another day.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

109 / commitment

I think the Chinese have whispered in his ear, and this is pure speculation, “Buddy, if you do this, everybody on the planet is going to get nuclear weapons and all of a sudden we are going to have this little small club of people with nuclear weapons and the consequences are going to be rather horrendous.

“I think the Chinese have whispered in his ear, and this is pure speculation, “Buddy, if you do this, everybody on the planet is going to get nuclear weapons and all of a sudden we are going to have this little small club of people with nuclear weapons and the consequences are going to be rather horrendous.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

110 / belief

Part of it. And I think part of it is a different issue. If you think about who the strategic leaders of World War II were, they were the conscripts of World War I.

“Part of it. And I think part of it is a different issue. If you think about who the strategic leaders of World War II were, they were the conscripts of World War I.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

113 / belief

I suspect it would have been far better leaving Chiang kai shek with all that stuff and then it would have been useful for him in the final stages of the war to get a few wins against the Japanese to make him look good.

“I suspect it would have been far better leaving Chiang kai shek with all that stuff and then it would have been useful for him in the final stages of the war to get a few wins against the Japanese to make him look good.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

119 / uncertainty

I'm making this up because I don't know the details of China but if you think about Deng Xiaoping, he's on the long march, he's one of the younger members.

“I'm making this up because I don't know the details of China but if you think about Deng Xiaoping, he's on the long march, he's one of the younger members.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

121 / belief

I believe if you measure the number of locals who died in Iraq and Afghanistan and then they've had the civil war on top of it, it's thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of people.

“I believe if you measure the number of locals who died in Iraq and Afghanistan and then they've had the civil war on top of it, it's thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of people.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

122 / belief

If you're a Russian of any persuasion, I suspect you'd be really angry that some American from across the seas is going to determine what kind of government you live under.

“If you're a Russian of any persuasion, I suspect you'd be really angry that some American from across the seas is going to determine what kind of government you live under.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

123 / belief

Before we decide that Americans are the important people in the world, or since we're in Britain now, British, and therefore anyone in between doesn't count, I believe that's wrong.

“Before we decide that Americans are the important people in the world, or since we're in Britain now, British, and therefore anyone in between doesn't count, I believe that's wrong.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

124 / evaluation

That lays the basis, not on purpose, of having international law where people who are eventually going to be running these independent countries have a legal training to use international law to their own kind of benefit. But anyway, Britain has this non-contiguous empire and after the war, it does not have the ability to hang on to them because of nationalism.

“That lays the basis, not on purpose, of having international law where people who are eventually going to be running these independent countries have a legal training to use international law to their own kind of benefit. But anyway, Britain has this non-contiguous empire and after the war, it does not have the ability to hang on to them because of nationalism.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

126 / prediction

You will never have stable borders and then it's easy for others to fund insurgencies because you have this dominated population that hates being dominated.

“You will never have stable borders and then it's easy for others to fund insurgencies because you have this dominated population that hates being dominated.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

128 / evaluation

What's death ground? It's when your enemy puts you on death ground, which means they're going to kill you, and therefore, you have no choice but to fight, because if you don't fight, you're dead.

“What's death ground? It's when your enemy puts you on death ground, which means they're going to kill you, and therefore, you have no choice but to fight, because if you don't fight, you're dead.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

129 / evaluation

The Chinese Communist Party has clearly made the decision that it wants to maintain a monopoly of political power. And for a while there, during Deng Xiaoping, that worked because the reforms that they wanted to make for agriculture and things, they can maintain their monopoly of power but also do things that allow people to get much wealthier.

“The Chinese Communist Party has clearly made the decision that it wants to maintain a monopoly of political power. And for a while there, during Deng Xiaoping, that worked because the reforms that they wanted to make for agriculture and things, they can maintain their monopoly of power but also do things that allow people to get much wealthier.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

130 / prediction

Because unlike Ukraine, if you have a continental position, if someone threatens you and invades on a given day, you have a choice on that given day, the day they chose, either you're going to capitulate or you're going to fight.

“Because unlike Ukraine, if you have a continental position, if someone threatens you and invades on a given day, you have a choice on that given day, the day they chose, either you're going to capitulate or you're going to fight.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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