Sarah Paine: prediction

Transcript context

…Was there any way for the West to, or for America to, win the Pacific War without the firebombing? Well, okay, let's, this is a whole other topic. Win in wars. What does win mean? For us, it was put Japan back in its box, right? But this is a whole problem for Japan. What's win? Or this country in Afghanistan, what's win? Is it booting Osama bin Laden out of Afghanistan? Once that happens, it's a day. Is it overthrowing the Taliban at a particular period, or is it trying to turn the whole place into a democracy? Okay, those are all radically different things, but you need to make up your mind what it's going to be. I think it's a miracle. Well, A, okay. 01:10:10 The win, if you're going to have the win be that the United States transforms Japan into a functional democracy, or sets them on the road so that they will become one, if that's what the win is- no. Because if you don't, I showed you the three horrible events in four days. That's quite incredible to have that much bad news happening in a half a week. And that absolutely shattered the Japanese, and it also opened the door for those who thought they were in crazy land to capitulate. If you don't do that, okay, we invade the home islands. Americans were sick of the war, and you start losing lots of American kids in Japan. I think at some stage, we decide to pull them out of Japan and blockade them eternally. And then you've got, I don't know, Japan is like a new North Korea, just this inevitable, these eternal, non-functioning society. So, no. Wars are tragic, and also, don't think that you have all the cards, that you're going to make the decisions about what's going to happen. The other side is going to put you into corners where you're going to choose from very unpleasant alternatives. I want to ask you about how the war starts. So, there's obviously, you go 10 years before, and you've got the tariffs, and that creates the incentive to build an empire. But even months before, when there's negotiations between Japan and America to get rid of the embargo, it's striking to me how much miscommunication and the ability for both sides to just understand that there was a compromise here was such a big factor here. I feel like if Prince Konoe and FDR could get on a Zoom call, I feel like the war...…

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